Senedd constituencies to be redrawn again under new rules

Mark Mansfield

Wales’ 16 Senedd constituencies are to be reviewed again less than four months after they were used for the first time in an election.

The Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru has launched the process of drawing the constituency map that will be used at the next Senedd election in 2030, with initial proposals expected early next year.

Unlike the boundaries used in May’s election, the new constituencies will not have to be formed by pairing Westminster seats, giving the Commission greater flexibility over where the boundaries are drawn.

Instead, each constituency will generally have to contain an electorate within 10% of the average across Wales.

The Commission will also take account of local government boundaries, geography and local ties, while being required to minimise unnecessary change.

The review follows the biggest overhaul of Senedd elections since devolution.

May’s election was the first to use 16 six-member constituencies, replacing the previous system of 40 constituencies and five electoral regions.

It was also the first election for an expanded 96-member Senedd and the first conducted using closed-list proportional representation.

The boundaries used in May had to be created by pairing Wales’ 32 Westminster constituencies, meaning the Commission had considerably less freedom over their shape than it will have during the new review.

The election produced a dramatically changed Senedd, with 66 of the 96 MSs elected having never previously served in the institution.

Plaid Cymru won 43 seats with 35.4% of the vote, while Reform UK secured 34 with 29.3%. Together, the two parties hold 77 of the 96 seats.

Labour, which had been the largest party after every previous Senedd election, was reduced to nine seats after receiving 11.1% of the vote.

Turnout also exceeded 50% for the first time at a Senedd election, reaching 51.7%.

The Commission’s new review will retain 16 constituencies, each electing six MSs, but their boundaries could change significantly because of the different rules.

It will also be responsible for deciding their names.

Under the legislation, constituencies should have a single-language name unless the Commission considers that would be unacceptable. All 16 current constituencies have single names.

Consultation

The review will include three rounds of public consultation.

Initial proposals are due in early 2027 and will be followed by an eight-week consultation.

The responses will then be published ahead of a second consultation, during which people will be able to support or challenge submissions made during the first round. Public hearings will also be held.

If the Commission subsequently changes its proposals, revised boundaries will be subject to a further four-week consultation.

Final determinations must be submitted to Welsh ministers before December 1, 2028, with the new boundaries coming into force for the 2030 election.

Public feedback

Shereen Williams, chief executive of the Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru, said: “The Commission is looking forward to holding a full review for the Senedd’s constituencies, with a greater opportunity for people to share their views and impact the proposals.

“Whenever the Commission holds a review, the public’s feedback, especially on their local area, is vital to making sure our determinations are the strongest possible.

“The move from pairing parliamentary constituencies to using an electoral quota does mean that some changes will be necessary at this review, but it also gives us an opportunity to respond with greater flexibility to the public’s views, while ensuring that we minimise changes wherever we can.”

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