Senedd Election 2026 Live

Senedd election results: 90/96 seats

Labour – 9        Conservative – 7      Plaid Cymru – 39

Reform UK – 32     Liberal Democrat – 1    Greens – 2

Counting has begun across Wales as Labour is predicted to lose its grip on power. Follow Nation.Cymru for live updates throughout the day.

Emily Price

Reform UK is first place in the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency securing three seats.

Plaid Cymru won two seats and Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds became the first to win a seat for her party.

Reform UK has won three seats in the constituency of Clwyd.

Plaid Cymru secured two seats, while Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar also won a seat for his party.

Wales’ First Minister Eluned Morgan has lost her seat in Ceredigion Penfro and has resigned as the leader of Welsh Labour.

Morgan looked somber as the results revealed that the Greens had almost outperformed Welsh Labour.

The Welsh Labour leader had admitted early on in the election campaign that keeping her seat in the Senedd would be a challenge, but vowed to fight on.

The Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Morgan had been a “formidable” first minister.

Plaid Cymru has won three seats in Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf.

Reform UK and Welsh Labour won one seat each and the Green Party won its second seat in the Senedd.

The Sir Fynwy Torfaen vote count has seen Reform UK and Plaid Cymru tie, winning two seats each.

Labour and the Conservatives won one seat each.

Plaid are now projected to get between 41 and 46 seats.

Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has won his seat in Bangor Conwy Môn.

His party took three seats in the super constituency while Reform UK won two.

Welsh Conservative Janet Finch Saunders will return to the Senedd winning a seat for her party.

Speaking after being elected ap Iorwerth said Wales “demanded change” in this election.

He said: “Today is about the future of our communities here and our nation as a whole.

“As the story of this election has emerged today, it has become clear that Wales demanded that change of leadership, and I look forward to saying more about this later, as the full picture becomes complete.

“My sense of service to my community and my belief in our nation drives me every single day, and Plaid Cymru is ready to serve not just those who entrusted their votes to us here, but all of the citizens of Wales that have a stake in our nation’s future.”

Plaid Cymru has won three seats in Afon Ogwr Rhondda with 24,538 votes while Reform UK won two seats with 22,345 votes.

Welsh Labour’s Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies took the sixth seat. Early on in the count he admitted his party would lose its grip on power in Wales today.

Labour’s disastrous losses in Wales were “manufactured in Westminster”, Mainstream, a soft-left caucus within the party has claimed.

Kerry Postlewhite, chairwoman of the Mainstream interim council, said: “Labour and Wales have shared a political bond forged over generations, and Welsh Labour has achieved things that matter deeply to communities across the country. These results are painful for many people.

“But we should be honest: this is not simply a verdict on Welsh Labour or the work of the Welsh Government. It reflects a much wider frustration with politics and with Labour nationally.

“People want to know that Labour understands the pressures they’re under, and that we are prepared to change. This is not the time for defensiveness or excuses from Westminster; this is a defeat manufactured in Westminster.”

Plaid Cymru has won three seats in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr with 36,136 votes.

Reform UK won two seats in the Valleys constituency with 15,525 votes and Welsh Labour won one seat, with Vikki Howells keeping her place in Wales’ parliament.

The Green Party has won its first seat in Caerdydd Penarth, with the party’s Welsh leader Anthony Slaughter elected to the Senedd.

Plaid Cymru won three seats, and Reform UK and Welsh Labour won one seat each.

Slaughter said: “I am honoured to be the first Wales Green Party candidate to be elected to the Senedd. This is an historic moment for the party. Welsh politics has changed forever today and Wales Green Party will now be playing a key role in that.

“Having a Green voice in the Senedd for the first time will make a huge difference to the political conversation in Wales and I look forward to working with others to achieve our campaign including the helping with the cost of living, fixing the housing crisis and protecting the natural environment of Wales.”

Slaughter gained the fourth seat in the constituency winning 14% of the vote ahead of Labour on 12%.

Reform UK and Plaid Cymru have won three seats each in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

Plaid Cymru and Reform have won three seats each in Sir Gaerfyrddin.

Plaid Cymru got 36,160 votes, with Reform second on 27,542 votes.

Plaid Cymru has won Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, taking two seats

Reform’s Gareth Thomas and Sarah Cooper-Lesadd also won two seats.

Former Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies also won a seat, as well as Labour’s Sarah Murphy.

Reform UK’s leader Dan Thomas has won Casnewydd Islwyn, securing 25,571 votes over Plaid Cymru with 23,069.

Each party has picked up two seats, with Welsh Labour’s Jayne Bryant and Tory Natasha Asghar each getting one.

Nation.Cymru staff

Reform UK’s leader in Wales said it was “too early to say” what the outcome of the Senedd elections could be.

Dan Thomas declined to say whether he would be Wales’s next first minister, also telling reporters at the Casnewydd Islwyn count in Newport: “I’m not going to go into speculation and hypothetical questions. It’s too early.

“We all know that Labour are finished, we know that after 27 years of failure, letting the people of Wales down. We know that much.

“But apart from that, I think it’s too early to say.”

Thomas arrived at Newport Velodrome without UK leader Nigel Farage as expected.

He defended his decision not to attend meetings with the Welsh Civil Service before his election to the Senedd.

Asked about this by BBC Wales, he said: “I don’t think one or two meetings with the Civil Service would have really got the ground running, to be honest. And I was back and forth, my campaign schedule was so tight, it was very difficult to arrange, but we were back and forth with with the Civil Service.”

He added: “If we can form a government, I would like to think that that will be sometime in the next week or two, then we will hit the ground running. And in my experience, civil servants are very professional and should be able to be very agile.”

Martin Shipton and Emily Price

It’s been confirmed that long-serving Labour MS Alun Davies has lost his seat in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

The constituency was set to be the first to declare results at around 13:00 today, but officials were asked to carry out a recount for the sixth seat.

Nation.Cymru understands there was only around 111 votes between Welsh Labour and Reform UK for the last spot in the constituency.

It comes as Labour appears set for a historic defeat in today’s Senedd election results after nearly 27 years in power.

Davies was elected to the then National Assembly in May 2007 and worked as a government minister a number of times.

He was sacked from his ministerial post in 2014 for “unacceptable behaviour” after asking civil servants for private financial information on rival assembly members.

It came less than a week less after he apologised to assembly members in a separate row about him breaking the ministerial code of conduct.

Emily Price

A senior Welsh Liberal Democrat source has said that Plaid Cymru’s “squeeze” message has been “extremely effective” with all other Welsh parties being squeezed out of the race.

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have characterised the 2026 Senedd election as a “two horse race” throughout the campaign despite changes to Wales’ electoral system.

The source said although the Lib Dems and Greens had tried to be clear in their messaging, the Welsh Conservatives and Labour should have done more from the outset of their campaigns to explain the new electoral system to voters.

They added that the Green Party of Wales has appeared to have underperformed in most places outside of Cardiff.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats are facing a wipeout in today’s election and could lose its sole Member of the Senedd – party leader Jane Dodds.

Meanwhile, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni was set to be the first constituency to declare results at around 13:00 today, but is now carrying out a recount for the sixth seat.

It is understood there is only around 100 votes between Labour and Reform UK for the last spot in the constituency.

Emily Price 

Labour sources are predicting that Wales’ First Minister Baroness Eluned Morgan will lose her seat in Ceredigion Penfro.

The Welsh Labour leader has admitted in recent days that keeping her seat in the Senedd would be a challenge.

Labour is expecting brutal Senedd election results this afternoon, with some sources predicting the party will win only 10 seats, and could finish in fourth place behind the Welsh Conservatives.

A spokesperson for the party told the BBC: “We now expect to lose several hardworking and respected members of the Senedd.

“We thank them for their service to their communities.

“It is looking like Welsh Labour will return a group of around 10 MSs – which will at least allow a vocal Labour opposition, even though we are deeply disappointed about not being able to lead a government.”

Elsewhere at the Bangor Conwy Mon election count in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said he was hearing “lots of positive noises across Wales”.

He said: “But, it’s very, very early, and I’ve watched enough elections as a correspondent, as well as a politician, to know that we hold back until we have the big picture.

“We know what we were trying to do in this election, let’s track how the afternoon goes.”

He added it had been “clear for some time” that Wales is ready for change.

“Our job has been to try to encourage people to make the correct change,” he said.

“And we’ll be watching very, very carefully over the next few hours.”

Plaid Cymru sources say they are confident they will win three seats in both Caerdydd Penarth and Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

This could indicate that they are ahead of Reform UK in the race to be the largest party in the Senedd.

A senior Plaid source said: “We’re now confident we’ll win three seats in Caerdydd Penarth. Three Plaid Cymru, one Green, one Labour, one Reform UK.

“It’s clear there has been a huge shift from Labour towards Plaid.

“Looking positive across much of Wales but still too early to call on overall numbers.”

Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni was set to be the first constituency to declare results, but reports are circulating that is heading to a recount.

Emily Price 

Leader of the Welsh Conservatives Darren Millar has told the BBC he is confident his party will play a “significant part” in the next Welsh parliament.

“I’m feeling very confident that I’m going to be re-elected today here in Clwyd,” he said.

However, Millar admitted that although things looked “very good” for him personally, he was unsure of the outcome across Wales or even the final outcome in Clwyd for his Tory colleague Gareth Davies.

“We’ll do our job representing the communities that we represent and trying to secure a better future for Wales,” Millar added.

“That’s what we’re all about. We want Wales to be a prosperous nation.”

Emily Price and Martin Shipton

A Labour source has told Nation.Cymru that “zero seats” for Welsh Labour in north Wales is “looking increasingly likely”.

The party has been the largest at country-wide elections in Wales for more than a century and had won the most seats in the Senedd since its creation more than two decades ago.

But after Wales went to the polls on Thursday, Labour is bracing itself for a brutal set of results in its former heartlands, with a senior figure admitting the party faced a “tough election campaign” under “difficult circumstances”.

As the count got underway on Friday, the party’s Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies admitted his party is not going to be able to form the next Welsh Government.

Irranca-Davies insisted Welsh Labour had put forward a “very positive manifesto”, adding: “I think it has been a good manifesto, it really has, and we have tried to argue on policies and also the next chapter for Wales.

“But if it hasn’t cut through to the people of Wales, we’re not going to be in that position then to actually form the next government.”

As well as party leader and First Minister Eluned Morgan in Ceredigion Penfro, the seats of Cabinet Secretaries Ken Skates (Fflint Wrecsam), Jayne Bryant (Casnewydd Islwyn) and Lynne Neagle (Sir Fynwy Torfaen) could be in jeopardy, as well as that of former Minister and prominent backbencher Alun Davies who suggested his party is facing a battle in his constituency of Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.

It’s already widely assumed that Culture Minister Jack Sargeant (number 2 in Fflint Wrecsam) won’t get re-elected.

Former Welsh Government minister Mick Antoniw told BBC Wales that if the results were “as bad as predicted” then Sir Keir Starmer should stand down as Prime Minister.

Ben Wildsmith and Emily Price

An easy quiet sits over proceedings as disputed ballot papers are decided upon in Casnewedd Islwyn.

Reform UK have a table away from the other parties and are all sporting dark blue suits.

Welsh leader Dan Thomas is yet to arrive.

Reform candidates in Llandysul, Ceredigion – where Baroness Eluned Morgan is awaiting her future, were unwilling to speak openly to the press, and instead focused on observing ballot papers as they were counted.

Emily Price

A senior Plaid Cymru source has said that although it is “still too early give predictions” the picture is “looking positive” for the party across Wales.

They said: “We’re seeing support coming to Plaid because we offered a positive, pro-Wales message centred on hope, change and new leadership.

“This wasn’t simply a vote against something. It’s clear that many people have voted positively for a different future for Wales.”

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have topped opinion polls throughout this Senedd election campaign while Labour is heading for a crushing defeat in Wales.

Reform’s deputy leader in Wales Helen Jenner also said things were looking “very positive” for the party but admitted had been “strong contenders”.

She said: “We are stronger in some parts than others… Some areas we’re very, very much neck and neck with Plaid, actually it’s quite reflective of what the polls have been saying.

“Obviously, we’ve done amazingly well across the border… Here, I think Plaid Cymru have been strong contenders and there might be an element of tactical voting as well.

“There is a bit of tactical voting that’s gone on, I think.

“However, I think we’re doing really, really well, and there’s pockets where we’re doing exceptionally well.”

The pace of declarations is expected to accelerate as we approach 13:00, when results are due from the first of Wales’ constituencies.

Nation.Cymru staff

As the count gets underway, Wales’ 16 super constituencies are expected to begin announcing results from around 13:00.

As this is the first Senedd election being held under the new proportional voting system and constituency boundary changes, the declaration times below are only rough estimates:

Bangor Conwy Môn: Unknown

Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Unknown

Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: 13:00

Casnewydd Islwyn: 13:00-16:00

Ceredigion Penfro: 14:00-15:00

Gŵyr Abertawe: 14:00

Sir Gaerfyrddin: 14:00-15:00

Clwyd: 14:00, possibly earlier 

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: 15:00

Caerdydd Ffynnon: 15:00

Caerdydd Penarth: 15:00

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: 15:00 at the latest

Gwynedd Maldwyn: 15:00-17:00

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: 15:30-16:30

Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Late afternoon

Fflint Wrecsam: 18:00

Emily Price and Martin Shipton

Labour is heading for a crushing defeat in Wales after suffering disastrous local election results in England overnight.

Welsh Labour sources say the party is in near panic mode, with fears that it may perform even worse than expected because of Labour voters backing Plaid Cymru to keep Reform out of power.

As well as party leader and First Minister Eluned Morgan in Ceredigion Penfro, the seats of Cabinet Secretaries Ken Skates (Fflint Wrecsam), Jayne Bryant (Casnewydd Islwyn) and Lynne Neagle (Sir Fynwy Torfaen) could be in jeopardy, as well as that of former Minister and prominent backbencher Alun Davies who suggested his party is facing a battle in his constituency.

Davies, Labour’s leading candidate in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, told Nation.Cymru: “I’m just heading to the count in Caerphilly.

“I was at the verification in Blaenau Gwent last night so I understand the overall shape of the poll and we still expect to hold at least one seat in this constituency.”

It’s also already widely assumed that Culture Minister Jack Sargeant (number 2 in Fflint Wrecsam) won’t get re-elected.

Former Welsh Government minister Mick Antoniw told BBC Wales that if the results were “as bad as predicted” then Sir Keir Starmer should stand down as Prime Minister.

Sir Keir Starmer has already said he takes responsibility for a “tough” set of local election results in England, where hundreds of Labour councillors have been voted out.

Nation Cymru staff

Turnout at 47.8% as counting begins in Casnewydd Islwyn

Turnout in Casnewydd Islwyn has been confirmed at 47.8% as counting gets under way to elect six new Senedd Members.

Direct comparisons with previous elections are difficult due to boundary changes, but overall turnout across Wales has typically been in the forties in recent Senedd contests, suggesting participation may be broadly in line with past votes.

Counting is taking place at the Geraint Thomas National Velodrome of Wales, where candidates and officials gathered this morning following overnight ballot verification.

Results are expected from there by mid-afternoon

Emily Price

A Reform UK Senedd election candidate who stepped down after his colleagues raised concerns about his deeply racist social media posts has attended the vote count in Barry.

Derek Roberts was selected to stand for Reform in the Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg constituency at the May 7 election but later stepped down citing “personal reasons”.

However, Reform sources told us the real reason the former Welsh Guard had quit was because some of his colleagues had raised concerns about the highly offensive content he was sharing online.

The posts included racist comment about migrants, Pakistanis and Muslims.

Roberts was spotted at Barry leisure Centre this morning wearing a suit and a Reform rosette overseeing the Senedd election vote count.

Nation.Cymru Staff

The results of the Senedd election are expected on Friday as counting of the ballots begins.

Wales went to the polls on Thursday (May 7) to elect a new batch of Senedd Members in a contest that could result in a dramatic shift in Welsh politics.

Labour has been the largest party at country-wide elections in Wales for more than a century and won the most seats in the Welsh Parliament since its creation more than two decades ago.

However, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have consistently topped opinion polls during the course of the campaign, with Labour being pushed into third place.

This election differs from those in previous years, with the Senedd expanding and a new proportional voting system being used.

There are now 16 “super” constituencies in Wales, each represented by six members of the Senedd, resulting in 96 being elected, up from the previous 60.

Under the new system, the number of candidates elected from each party will be based on the percentage of votes the party received, and they will be elected in order from a list compiled by their party.

Ballot papers will be counted during the day on Friday (May 8), with the first results expected in the early afternoon and the final declarations in the evening.

This is set to be a nerve-wracking day for Baroness Eluned Morgan, the First Minister and leader of Welsh Labour, who previously admitted she could be at risk of losing her seat, but vowed to fight on.

During the campaign, Morgan sought to distance Welsh Labour from UK Labour and urged people not to use the election as a “protest vote” against Sir Keir Starmer.

Reform UK – led in Wales by Dan Thomas – alongside Plaid Cymru, has led opinion polls in Wales throughout the campaign.

Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has previously said he hoped his party would “replace” Labour as the party in government and, in a social media post on polling day, said it would be an “honour” and “privilege” to serve his country.

At the close of polls on Thursday, Huw Irranca-Davies, Welsh Labour campaign chairman and Lady Morgan’s deputy, said his party faced a “tough election campaign” under “difficult circumstances”.

He added: “After many years in government in Wales, and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration.

“The ongoing pressures people face from the cost of living are real and hurt deeply. We take that seriously. There were many tough messages heard on the doorstep.

“And in the days ahead, we will reflect carefully and listen with humility to what voters are telling us. There will be no dodging. No deflection. Just determination to put things right.”

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “As polls close across Wales tonight, Plaid Cymru thanks everyone who has taken part in this important moment for our democracy and for the future of our nation.

“We are proud of the positive and disciplined campaign we have taken to every corner of Wales.

“Throughout this election, we have heard a clear appetite for change. People want a government that will stand up for Wales and focus relentlessly on the key issues affecting their lives.

“People have told us they have been inspired by Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership and driven by a desire for a positive alternative to Reform UK’s chaos and division.

“The people of Wales have now voted, and we look forward to the resultson Friday with humility and with hope for the positive future Wales deserves.”