Senedd poll shows Reform UK seven points ahead of Plaid Cymru
Martin Shipton
A new More In Common poll in advance of May’s Senedd election shows Reform UK in the lead, seven points ahead of Plaid Cymru and a further four points ahead of Labour.
The predicted result is significantly different from a recent YouGov poll, which saw Plaid with a 14-point lead over Reform and with the Green Party in third place.
The More in Common poll has Reform on 31% (+29), Plaid Cymru on 24% (+4), Labour on 20% (-20), the Conservatives on 13%(-13), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (+1), the Green Party on 5% (+3) and others on 1%. The changes are in comparison with the last Senedd election’s constituency vote in 2021.
According to a projection made by More In Common, Reform on these figures would win 36 seats, Plaid Cymru 26, Labour 21, the Conservatives 10, the Liberal Democrat 2 and the Green Party 1.
Such an outcome would see Plaid Cymru and Labour together two seats short of an overall majority, opening up the possibility of a “rainbow” coalition involving Plaid, Labour, the Lib Dems and the Green Party. This would see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth as Wales’ first non-Labour First Minister.
Even if the Conservatives were prepared to back a Reform government, it would still be three seats short of a majority, without a realistic chance of getting support from the Lib Dems and the Greens.
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I believe that Reform will top the poll in June. However, this is an odd one. From the same poll in July we are told to believe that Plaid have lost support, Labour have only lost 3% of the vote since July and the Tories have actually gained support! When it comes to the Greens they will get no seats. Not even in Cardiff! Is there anyone who thinks that is credible?
Well said. These figures are at variance with every other poll weve been seeing since caerphilly. Certainly is hard to believe that labour has recovered its lost ground or that the greens wont get any seats. That said a poll like this keeps everyone on their toes with regards to the very real threat of reform being the biggest party in Wales in May
Somewhere along the road towards a better nation, my Welsh country people have really lost their way.
The reason for this is because the Labour Party in Wales has led from the back, ignoring the desires of the voters, and putting their own priorities first and foremost. They have themselves to blame and no excuses.
This seems to fly in the face of all other recent polls
A wake up call for anyone who thought Reform were vanquished after caerphilly. That said this poll does seem a bit of a outlier? I dont like criticising polls that are not to my liking but no other poll has been showing figures like this – every other poll over the last 6 months has had plaid and reform neck and neck and labour support totally collapsing. So i think we need to see what other polls are showing before we can trust these figures.
So standing around clutching pearls, fainting and screaming “fascist” every 2 minutes hasn’t worked. What a shock. Can I suggest a more effective and grown up approach? How about engaging them in debate and utterly obliterating their policies (or lack of)? Do this and their support will melt away. Oh, and outlining an alternative vision for Wales, policies (remember those?) for the NHS, business, education etc too would be nice. Reform have gone on long enough.
Exactly
How do you debate non existent policies. Have you ever tried engaging with a Reform voter, debate isn’t in their vocabulary, it’s all whataboutery.
This poll doesn’t take into account Rupert Lowe’s latest project, Restore. Interesting to see what effect this will have on Reform.
As with all Senedd polls:
Any clarification would be welcome.
Just 806 questioned, which is quite a small sample to cover the whole of Wales. I suspect this goes some way to explaining the rather strange results we see in this poll.
Bottom line is there’s still quite a bit of variance amongst what is still a small number of polls and it’s probably still all to play for. Really the last you Gov poll was a bit of an outlier in terms of the extent of the Plaid lead and it was the only poll ever to suggest the Greens would get more than 1 seat. Also Plaid have only ever once led in a poll not conducted by yougov. Best to look at a recent average of a few polls if possible.
If this or recent polls prove accurate and Labour are trounced, is it a foregone conclusion that Rhun ap Iorwerth would be first minister? How many Labour MSs would be able to bring themselves to vote for the triumphant leader of Plaid Cymru in the ballot for first minister?
If the people of Wales want to be Nigel Farage’s stepping stone to Westminster power, so be it — but they will be disappointed. Reform doesn’t care about those impoverished Welsh communities he’s currently grooming orc the Welsh NHS staffed by the very Black and Brown people he detests Reform cares not about the child poverty caused by the very policies he supported as a diehard Thatcherite. Nor does he care for our hard‑fought Senedd democracy, language, or our precious cultural legacy. All this means nothing to him — or to his newly converted, far‑right ex‑Conservative failures. Wake up before… Read more »
Expect more of these polls heavily weighted towards Reform as they spend the crypto kids £9m in the next few months. The reality is since Caerphilly Plaid have been short priced favourites to get most seats https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/welsh-politics/senedd-election/most-seats The odds haven’t changed since the arrival of the lightweight failed Tory councillor from Barnet The support for him from the usual suspects has been half hearted. Bet 365 have Plaid as short as 1/3 on to win most seats Denise Coates didnt become the highest UK taxpayer by getting odds wrong She has Rreform at a standout price of 2-1 which will… Read more »
I understand ‘More in Common’ are low down on the ranking for pollsters as they are quite new? Seem very weird results though?
I’ve never heard of ‘More in Common’ before. Who pays them and where do they come from?!
Only Plaid can abolish the Abolishers.
Even if this poll turns out to be an outlier as some people suggest, Plaid cannot afford complacency. If anything, it may suggest that Labour in Wales is not as weak as some previous polling has implied. Many voters may tell pollsters they support Plaid or the Greens as a way of signalling dissatisfaction with Starmer’s government, but still revert to Labour when it comes to actually casting their vote. But if Plaid can present a positive, hopeful and credible vision for Wales, there is no reason it cannot become the largest party, as other polls have indicated. This means… Read more »
All sensible people will take note of this, even if it turns out to have been over-pessimistic. For the sake of our children and grandchildren, we *must* stop the fascists from coming anywhere near power. The future of our democracy is at risk.
I too am rather sceptical about this poll. In particular, it’s difficult to see Labour support recovering to this extent. However, if accurate it is the second worst outcome (behind a Reform government) allowing Farage & co to claim that the election was “stolen by a coalition of losers” or some such narrative.
Indeed. By getting the most votes but not being in government they’ll argue democracy no longer exists in Wales and promise to legislate to save Wales by abolishing Wales in 2029. It’s actually the perfect result for them because the last thing they need is three years in power here that makes everything worse. Victimhood without responsibility is a gift for their English campaign.
Absolutely. Kent Council and elsewhere has demonstrated that, particularly as there will be some fruit cakes elected here.
Will Hayward reports in his newsletter that this poll used proportional swing from the 2024 GE results to underpin its predictions. This fails to take into account that people can and do vote differently in Westminster and Senedd elections. If so, whilst you can’t ignore signs of Reform support, the poll has limitations as a predictive tool. I suppose this is partly a result of the national polling organisations taking little/no interest in Welsh affairs until this year, so they have built up no solid baseline data. Even if they had, the changes to the electoral system would be challenging.… Read more »