Senior Reform figures ‘want ex Welsh Secretary David Jones to become First Minister’

Martin Shipton

Senior figures in Reform UK are convinced they will win the highest number of seats in next year’s Senedd election and want a former Tory cabinet minister from north Wales to be their candidate for First Minister, we can reveal.

David Jones represented Clwyd West at Westminster from 2005 until 2024, serving as Secretary of State for Wales from 2012 until 2014. A hardline Brexiteer, he was a prominent member of the Tories’ European Research Group and was appointed a Brexit Minister by Theresa May during her premiership. He returned to the back benches after the disastrous general election result for the Conservatives in 2017, when they lost their parliamentary majority.

Mr Jones is a solicitor, and before becoming an MP was briefly a member of the then National Assembly from 2002 until 2003, taking his seat when the first Tory group leader Rod Richards resigned his North Wales regional seat before being declared bankrupt.

Nigel Farage

Recently Reform said it would not elect a Welsh leader before the Senedd election, saying their campaign would be led by the party’s leader Nigel Farage, even though he will not be standing as a candidate. Other parties were critical of this position, saying it would be highly disrespectful of Wales if an English MP participated in debates as the representative of Reform in a Welsh election.

A political source told us: “Senior figures in Reform are totally convinced that Reform will be the largest party after the May 2026 Senedd election. Under the standing orders of the Senedd, the First Minister is elected by MSs at the first meeting after a Senedd election. If MSs from each party group vote for their own nominee, the Reform candidate would win.

“David Jones has left the Conservatives and joined Reform, and senior people in Reform are now trying to persuade him to stand for the Senedd next year. If he’s top of the Reform list in the super-constituency where he’ll be standing under the new electoral system, he won’t have any trouble getting elected.

“Their plan is that, if he can be persuaded, he will be Reform’s candidate for First Minister. He’s something of a hero to them because he was such an ardent Brexiteer, and obviously he has experience as a UK Minister in a way none of the rest of them has.”

Mathematics

The political source said that what happened next would depend on the mathematics of the election result and decisions made by other parties: “It’s possible that between them, Labour and Plaid Cymru would have enough MSs to form a majority. They could decide to join forces and elect a First Minister from their own ranks. On the other hand, it’s possible they may take the view that, having won the highest number of seats, Reform should be allowed to form a minority government. That would be more likely, however, if Labour and Plaid weren’t able to command a majority between them.

“If Reform came out on top and the Tories had enough seats to give them a majority with their support, they might be reluctant to enter a formal coalition but it’s plausible that they could back a Reform minority administration from outside the government. That’s what the Scottish Tories did in 2007, when the Scottish Parliament election ended with the SNP having one more seat than Labour.”

‘Complication’

One complication might be the difficult nature of the relationship between Mr Jones and Welsh Conservative Senedd group leader Darren Millar, who are reputed to loathe each other.

As well as Oliver Lewis, who stood for Reform in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr in the 2024 general election, coming second, another possible Welsh leader of Reform is Mark Reckless, who has had an interesting political journey representing a succession of right wing parties.

Elected as a Tory MP in Kent, he defected to UKIP, resigned his seat and was re-elected at the subsequent by-election. However, he lost his seat at the general election, then taking a research role with UKIP.

In 2016 he moved to Wales, with which he had no previous connection, winning a regional list seat for UKIP in South East Wales. The UKIP group split and Mr Reckless wanted to return to the Tories, but they wouldn’t readmit him. Nevertheless, with the permission of Andrew RT Davies, the then Tory group leader, he was allowed to attend and participate in Tory group meetings.

When Nigel Farage founded the Brexit Party, Mr Reckless became its group leader. But by the time of the Senedd election in 2021, he was a member of the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, for which he stood and lost.

Mr Reckless has now joined Reform. We asked him how he justified joining Reform when it is a party that opposes abolishing the Senedd. We also asked him if he intends being a Reform candidate next year. He responded stating “No comment.”

Later Mr Jones said: “I have no intention of standing for election, be it to Westminster, Cardiff or anywhere else. After 19 years representing the people of Clwyd West, I stood down at the last general election and am now thoroughly enjoying my retirement.”