Sensational poll puts Plaid Cymru 12% ahead of Labour at Senedd election

Martin Shipton

A sensational new poll on voting intention at next year’s Senedd election has put Plaid Cymru in the lead with 30% of the vote – 12 points ahead of Labour on 18% and five points ahead of Reform UK on 25%.

The Conservatives are in fourth place on 13%, with the Liberal Democrats on 7%, the Greens 5% and Others 2%.

The poll was carried out by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University.

Shift

Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “If these polling figures were replicated in an actual election, modelling indicates Plaid Cymru would emerge as the largest party with approximately 35 seats, followed closely by Reform UK with 30 seats. Labour would secure 19 seats, while the Conservatives would hold 9 seats and the Liberal Democrats 3 seats. However, it’s important to note that 10 of these projected seats fall within a very narrow margin of error (less than 2%), meaning even minor shifts in vote intention could produce a substantially different Senedd composition.

“This poll represents a substantial shift from previous Welsh polls and as always carries the health warnings of a single poll. However, the results support a broader pattern emerging throughout the UK – both Labour and Conservative parties are experiencing substantial erosion of support, though flowing in different directions, resulting in a newly fragmented four-party political landscape in Wales.

“For the Conservatives, these results represent one of their poorest showings in Welsh polling over the past two decades. These figures suggest Reform UK is positioned to establish itself as the predominant right-of-centre party appealing to the British-identifying bloc of the Welsh electorate.

“For Labour, the evidence parallels trends seen in England—they are not primarily losing former supporters to Reform UK, but instead experiencing more substantial defections to other progressive parties. In the Welsh context, Plaid Cymru emerges as the principal beneficiary, currently enjoying some of their strongest historical polling numbers. This shift reflects not only current dissatisfaction with both the UK and Welsh governments, but also builds upon a long-established pattern wherein Labour’s Westminster voters frequently show preferences for Plaid Cymru during Senedd elections.”

Variations 

There are variations in voting attention according to gender, age, social grade, region and the ability to speak Welsh.

Women (32%) are more likely to support Plaid Cymru than men (29%). Some 22% of women back Reform, against 27% of men, with 17% of women backing Labour and 19% of men. The Tories get 14% of the female vote and 13% of the male vote.

The younger voters are, the more likely they are to support Plaid Cymru. Plaid wins 46% of the vote among those aged 16 to 24; 36% among those aged 25 and 49; 26% among those aged 50 to 64; and 23% among those aged 65 and over.

By contrast, Reform wins just 4% of votes among those aged 16 to 24; 18% among those aged 25 and 49; 34% among those aged 50 to 64; and 30% among those 65 and over.

Labour is on 16% among those aged 16 to 24; 22% among those aged 25 and 49; 18% among those aged 50 to 64; and 14% among those 65 and over.

The Conservatives 8% among those aged 16 to 24 and 25 to 49; 12% among those aged 50 to 64; and 22% among those aged 65 and over. In a Westminster general election, the poll showed that Plaid Cymru and Reform would both win 24%, ahead of Labour on 20%, the Conservatives on 13%, the Liberal Democrats on 9%, the Greens on 7% and Others on 2%.

Prosperous

In terms of social grade, the more prosperous ABC1 group split Plaid 31%; Labour 22%; Reform 20%; Conservatives 13%; while the poorer C2DE group split Reform 30%; Plaid 29%; Labour 13% and Conservatives 13%.

In Cardiff and South Central Wales, Plaid were on 32%; Reform 22%; Labour 21% and Conservatives on 12%.

In North Wales Plaid were on 32%; Reform 23%; Conservatives 18% and Labour 17%.

In South West Wales Plaid were on 32%; Reform 22%; Labour 18%; Conservatives 13%.

In Mid and West Wales Plaid and Reform were both on 29%; with Labour on 14% and Conservatives on 11%.

In South East Wales Reform were on 28%; Plaid 27%; Labour 20% and Conservatives 11%.

Fluent Welsh speakers split Plaid 58%; Labour 12%, Conservatives 10%; Reform 9%.

Non-fluent Welsh speakers split Plaid 39%; Labour 21%; Reform 18%; Conservatives 10%.

Non-Welsh speakers split Reform 31%; Plaid 21%; Labour 17%; Conservative 15%.

Unexplored territory

Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said: “Welsh politics is entering new and unexplored territory. For Labour, the loss of power in Wales would be a devastating blow after a century of dominating Welsh politics. The prospect of a Plaid Cymru-led government, however vulnerable, will bring echoes of Scotland’s SNP minority government after 2007, that led ultimately to a majority in the following election. And the poll findings even suggest the possibility of a government led by Reform UK. Unlikely, but not impossible.

“Not only would a result along the lines of this poll bring massive change to Wales, it would shake British politics, possibly costing Keir Starmer his job and forcing a change of leadership in the Conservatives as well as a possible realignment on the right and putting Welsh independence on the political agenda. The prizes – and the risks – couldn’t be bigger.”

‘Credible’

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “More and more people are turning to Plaid Cymru as the only party standing up for Wales’s interests, offering a credible pro-Wales government in 2026.

“The Labour Party has betrayed those who put it into power at Westminster, and Eluned Morgan has gone along with it, proving she is no more than an apologist for Keir Starmer.

“As voters turn their backs on Labour, the choice in the 2026 Welsh General Election is clear. A Plaid Cymru government led by Rhun ap Iorwerth with a positive vision and not afraid to stand up to Labour, or Reform UK led by work-shy ex-Tory Nigel Farage whose real interest lies in cosying up to Donald Trump.

“Unlike Labour who have taken the support of steelworkers, pensioners, business owners and the most vulnerable in society for granted, we will continue to work hard to make the case that a Plaid Cymru government will bring about a fairer, more ambitious Wales.”

A Reform UK spokesperson said: “These latest figures confirm what we’ve been hearing on the ground across Wales, people are ready for real change.

“Reform UK is now firmly established as a major political force in Wales, offering a fresh alternative to the same old parties that have failed for too long. To be polling neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru [in a Westminster poll] and ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives shows the strength of our message and momentum.

“We will continue working hard to earn every vote and deliver the common-sense policies that Wales deserves.”

YouGov’s total sample size for the Senedd Voting Intentions MPR Model was 1,265 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between April 23 and April 30 2025.

YouGov’s total sample size for the Westminster Voting Intentions MPR Model was 1,248 adults. Fieldwork was also undertaken between April 23 and April 30 2025.