Sensational poll puts Plaid Cymru 12% ahead of Labour at Senedd election

Martin Shipton
A sensational new poll on voting intention at next year’s Senedd election has put Plaid Cymru in the lead with 30% of the vote – 12 points ahead of Labour on 18% and five points ahead of Reform UK on 25%.
The Conservatives are in fourth place on 13%, with the Liberal Democrats on 7%, the Greens 5% and Others 2%.
The poll was carried out by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University.
Shift
Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “If these polling figures were replicated in an actual election, modelling indicates Plaid Cymru would emerge as the largest party with approximately 35 seats, followed closely by Reform UK with 30 seats. Labour would secure 19 seats, while the Conservatives would hold 9 seats and the Liberal Democrats 3 seats. However, it’s important to note that 10 of these projected seats fall within a very narrow margin of error (less than 2%), meaning even minor shifts in vote intention could produce a substantially different Senedd composition.
“This poll represents a substantial shift from previous Welsh polls and as always carries the health warnings of a single poll. However, the results support a broader pattern emerging throughout the UK – both Labour and Conservative parties are experiencing substantial erosion of support, though flowing in different directions, resulting in a newly fragmented four-party political landscape in Wales.
“For the Conservatives, these results represent one of their poorest showings in Welsh polling over the past two decades. These figures suggest Reform UK is positioned to establish itself as the predominant right-of-centre party appealing to the British-identifying bloc of the Welsh electorate.
“For Labour, the evidence parallels trends seen in England—they are not primarily losing former supporters to Reform UK, but instead experiencing more substantial defections to other progressive parties. In the Welsh context, Plaid Cymru emerges as the principal beneficiary, currently enjoying some of their strongest historical polling numbers. This shift reflects not only current dissatisfaction with both the UK and Welsh governments, but also builds upon a long-established pattern wherein Labour’s Westminster voters frequently show preferences for Plaid Cymru during Senedd elections.”
Variations
There are variations in voting attention according to gender, age, social grade, region and the ability to speak Welsh.
Women (32%) are more likely to support Plaid Cymru than men (29%). Some 22% of women back Reform, against 27% of men, with 17% of women backing Labour and 19% of men. The Tories get 14% of the female vote and 13% of the male vote.
The younger voters are, the more likely they are to support Plaid Cymru. Plaid wins 46% of the vote among those aged 16 to 24; 36% among those aged 25 and 49; 26% among those aged 50 to 64; and 23% among those aged 65 and over.
By contrast, Reform wins just 4% of votes among those aged 16 to 24; 18% among those aged 25 and 49; 34% among those aged 50 to 64; and 30% among those 65 and over.
Labour is on 16% among those aged 16 to 24; 22% among those aged 25 and 49; 18% among those aged 50 to 64; and 14% among those 65 and over.
The Conservatives 8% among those aged 16 to 24 and 25 to 49; 12% among those aged 50 to 64; and 22% among those aged 65 and over. In a Westminster general election, the poll showed that Plaid Cymru and Reform would both win 24%, ahead of Labour on 20%, the Conservatives on 13%, the Liberal Democrats on 9%, the Greens on 7% and Others on 2%.
Prosperous
In terms of social grade, the more prosperous ABC1 group split Plaid 31%; Labour 22%; Reform 20%; Conservatives 13%; while the poorer C2DE group split Reform 30%; Plaid 29%; Labour 13% and Conservatives 13%.
In Cardiff and South Central Wales, Plaid were on 32%; Reform 22%; Labour 21% and Conservatives on 12%.
In North Wales Plaid were on 32%; Reform 23%; Conservatives 18% and Labour 17%.
In South West Wales Plaid were on 32%; Reform 22%; Labour 18%; Conservatives 13%.
In Mid and West Wales Plaid and Reform were both on 29%; with Labour on 14% and Conservatives on 11%.
In South East Wales Reform were on 28%; Plaid 27%; Labour 20% and Conservatives 11%.
Fluent Welsh speakers split Plaid 58%; Labour 12%, Conservatives 10%; Reform 9%.
Non-fluent Welsh speakers split Plaid 39%; Labour 21%; Reform 18%; Conservatives 10%.
Non-Welsh speakers split Reform 31%; Plaid 21%; Labour 17%; Conservative 15%.
Unexplored territory
Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said: “Welsh politics is entering new and unexplored territory. For Labour, the loss of power in Wales would be a devastating blow after a century of dominating Welsh politics. The prospect of a Plaid Cymru-led government, however vulnerable, will bring echoes of Scotland’s SNP minority government after 2007, that led ultimately to a majority in the following election. And the poll findings even suggest the possibility of a government led by Reform UK. Unlikely, but not impossible.
“Not only would a result along the lines of this poll bring massive change to Wales, it would shake British politics, possibly costing Keir Starmer his job and forcing a change of leadership in the Conservatives as well as a possible realignment on the right and putting Welsh independence on the political agenda. The prizes – and the risks – couldn’t be bigger.”
‘Credible’
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “More and more people are turning to Plaid Cymru as the only party standing up for Wales’s interests, offering a credible pro-Wales government in 2026.
“The Labour Party has betrayed those who put it into power at Westminster, and Eluned Morgan has gone along with it, proving she is no more than an apologist for Keir Starmer.
“As voters turn their backs on Labour, the choice in the 2026 Welsh General Election is clear. A Plaid Cymru government led by Rhun ap Iorwerth with a positive vision and not afraid to stand up to Labour, or Reform UK led by work-shy ex-Tory Nigel Farage whose real interest lies in cosying up to Donald Trump.
“Unlike Labour who have taken the support of steelworkers, pensioners, business owners and the most vulnerable in society for granted, we will continue to work hard to make the case that a Plaid Cymru government will bring about a fairer, more ambitious Wales.”
A Reform UK spokesperson said: “These latest figures confirm what we’ve been hearing on the ground across Wales, people are ready for real change.
“Reform UK is now firmly established as a major political force in Wales, offering a fresh alternative to the same old parties that have failed for too long. To be polling neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru [in a Westminster poll] and ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives shows the strength of our message and momentum.
“We will continue working hard to earn every vote and deliver the common-sense policies that Wales deserves.”
YouGov’s total sample size for the Senedd Voting Intentions MPR Model was 1,265 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between April 23 and April 30 2025.
YouGov’s total sample size for the Westminster Voting Intentions MPR Model was 1,248 adults. Fieldwork was also undertaken between April 23 and April 30 2025.
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Another poll which shows that voting Green will be a complete waste. Plaid need to repeat this time after time.
This is great news Cymru desperately needs change, Labour have had 25 years of control in the Senedd, over 100 years of being the majority party in Cymru for every UK general election, and we’re still one of the poorest parts of the UK and Europe. If Labour had any self-awareness they’d stand aside and let other parties like Plaid run Cymru.
But the fascists getting seats.
which is rather worrying having the putin stooge in a place to control Wales.
uk press has been woeful holding that charlatan to task.
I agree Jeff, but they’ve been in before as a sizeable block as ukip and fell apart in epic clown car fashion with the whole 5 years spent fighting each other in public.
Just watching Jenkyns spout bile. If the get seats, they are on display and nige don’t like em being nice. See the flag commentary or “DEI” joke.
duplicate post
Reform will win seats but thankfully they will not win a majority, and none of the parties will touch them with a barge-pole (tories maybe but won’t have the numbers needed). Like what TheOtherJones said, when dealing with parties like Reform, UKIP etc you have to give them enough rope and let them hang themselves. Thats what happened to Nick Griffin when he went on Question Time. As much as I dislike the closed list system I’m happy that we have Proportional Representation and not First Past The Post. Defenders of FPTP tend argue that PR will “let extremists win… Read more »
It’s a good start to the year of campaign, and it is interesting to see the difference according to langauge .
But I’d love to see the breakdown according to the 16 constituencies.
BBC: “Reform UK will proudly fly the Union Jack, St George’s flag and county flags.”
Reform also pick some great candidates. Nige’s amazing vetting letting this through. There are others with reprehensible socials.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0y0ny527wo
I can assure you that there are 100s more of these in Reform!!!
If nothing else, seeing Welsh Labour ejected is vital for the health of democracy. And that’s before one gets to 26 years of failure, the false dawn of Labour governments at both ends of the M4 etc.
It might be 26 years of not doing enough but it’s not 26 years of failure unless you’re of the view that imperial rule would’ve delivered better outcomes. And that’s a tough argument to make when you look at non-devolved areas like railway infrastructure.
The UK government’s justification on HS2 was absurd; but it isn’t a tough argument on railway infrastructure because it was the Welsh Labour government who declined its devolution 20 years ago when it was offered. Had they accepted, the money would’ve followed. Another example of failure to add to a very long list.
Er, are you really using the benefits of devolution to argue against devolution?
HS2 absolutely is an example of the sort of benign neglect that happens when Whitehall is in charge. The London government abuses their powers to enrich their own patch at every opportunity. The only cure is more decentralisation.
This is brilliant news. Welsh voters are crying out for an alternative to Labour. Starmer has completely destroyed the brand and our First Minister, despite saying otherwise, will not stand up to him. Reform cares nothing about Wales. Plaid Cymru deserves a chance.
Plaid need to build on this. No complacency. Reform has a larger lead with the majority English language only speakers. Plaid must reach out more.
So it’s shaping up as a choice between a progressive Plaid led government or an ultra British nationalist government that won’t tell us what their devolved policies are or who will lead them….
This is very encouraging news. Rhun ap Iorwerth is proving himself to be the best Plaid Cymru leader since Dafydd Wigley. Let’s hope he’s the new First Minister this time next year.
Da iawn 🙂
Delighted to read this, Plaid are the only credible alternative to the right wing parties Labour, Conservative and Reform.
Newyddion da heno i’r gwrthsafiad Cymreig. Good news this evening re Wales’ resistance. But please from here on let us keep our heads.
If we had STV I’d probably play it safe and put Labour first then Plaid followed by Green. But since I only have one shot it’ll have to be Plaid since they have the best chance of seeing of Reform.
Eluned Morgan just made a fool of herself by saying ‘A vote for Plaid is a vote for Reform’ under a PR system I don’t think so. At this rate Rhun ap Iorweth might as well argue that by a vote for Labour is a vote for Reform.
This is very interesting. However i would say you can make figures say whatever you want. The following statement is very important as we know that the younger generation are LESS likely to actually vote in comparison with older people. “The younger voters are, the more likely they are to support Plaid Cymru. Plaid wins 46% of the vote among those aged 16 to 24;”
This is amazing news, and I hope to god this poll is right. Welsh Labour have been disastrous for Wales, and the thought of Reform is not one that sits right with me. Let’s get Plaid in and see what they can do – it’s our best chance of getting someone who will actually fight for Wales.
Amazing news! One wales hater voting for reform is still one too many though.