Sensational poll shows Welsh Labour Senedd election meltdown and Plaid Cymru and Reform neck and neck for the lead
Martin Shipton
A sensational new poll on voting intention at next year’s Senedd shows that Welsh Labour is in meltdown and that Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are almost neck and neck for winning the highest number of votes and seats.
The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share for the Senedd is now at its lowest at 14%, whilst Plaid Cymru are continuing to lead the polls with 30%. The poll outlines that movement to Reform UK is continuing in Wales with 29% of the current vote share.
The poll also highlights that support for Keir Starmer has plummeted, with 62% of those surveyed believing he is doing badly as Prime Minister.
Senedd voting intention:
(YouGov MRP Model)
Plaid 30% (n/c)
Reform 29% (+4)
Labour 14% (-4)
Conservatives 11% (-2)
Lib Dem 6% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 4% (+2)
Westminster voting intention:
(YouGov MRP Model)
Reform 29% (+5)
Plaid Cymru 23% (-1)
Labour 18% (-2)
Conservatives 11% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (n/c)
Green 7% (n/c)
Other 4% (+2)
Dr Jac Larner’s Senedd Seat Projection:
Plaid Cymru – 38
Reform UK – 37
Labour – 11
Conservatives – 6
Lib Dem – 3
Green – 1
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “This latest ITV Wales poll confirms a trend leading into next year’s Senedd election: the contest for the largest party is becoming a neck-and-neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. With Plaid holding steady at 30% and Reform increasing to 29% (+4), these two parties now lead the field, while Labour trails at 14% (-4) and the Conservatives sit at 11% (-2). The numbers suggest a realignment in Welsh politics, with traditional powerhouses no longer assured of their historical positions.
“The data reveals telling patterns of voter movement across the political spectrum. Plaid Cymru’s support has remained relatively stable over recent months with previous Labour converts sticking with their new choice, suggesting the party has successfully consolidated earlier gains.
“Reform UK’s growth is built primarily on Conservative defections, with most of their support coming from previous Tory voters, alongside a smaller but notable number of former Labour supporters. Labour, meanwhile, is losing voters on multiple fronts – primarily to Plaid and the Greens, but also to a lesser extent to Reform – indicating broader challenges in holding together their traditional coalition. While Reform isn’t capturing the bulk of Labour’s lost support, even these smaller defections are contributing to Labour’s decline.
“With no party approaching majority territory, post-election coalition building appears inevitable. The numbers currently favour a Plaid Cymru-led administration, given their potential alignment with Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens on policy grounds. However, continued Labour decline could leave even this natural partnership with only narrow working majorities.
“For Reform, their success in attracting Conservative voters creates a strategic puzzle: as they continue to draw from the Tory base, they may find themselves with insufficient Conservative allies to form an alternative government, while their vote becomes less efficiently distributed within constituencies.”
Significant political change
Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said: “This poll reinforces the suggestion that the Senedd is heading towards a time of significant political change in May 2026. It now seems possible that more than a century of Labour dominance could be coming to an end, while it’s not impossible that the most likely outcome of the election is either a Plaid Cymru or a Reform UK minority government. Only a few years ago, all of these scenarios would have seemed fanciful.
“And it’s not just Wales and Welsh politics that would be affected by all this change. Labour losing power here in Wales could see internal criticism of Keir Starmer reach a crescendo which could cost him his job. At the same time, victory or strong success for Reform UK would bolster its claim to be in with a shout of taking Number 10 in a UK General Election.”
‘Voters want change’
Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth MS said: “Be under no illusion: the choice at the next election is clear – it is between a divisive Reform party that don’t care about Wales and would privatise our NHS, or a pro-Wales Plaid Cymru government that will stand up for Wales and deliver real change for the better for our communities.
“Labour’s support is falling because voters want change.
“People are overwhelmingly looking to Plaid Cymru for a better future for our country – one that is driven by Welsh values, that will deliver real results and stand up for fairness for Wales from Westminster.
“We’re urging everyone who wants to see the right kind of change – to back the only plausible choice for a positive, pro-Wales government by backing Plaid Cymru.”
Partnership
Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov. The poll aims to provide an insight into people’s beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales.
YouGov’s total sample size for the Senedd Voting Intentions MPR Model was 1,232 adults (16+). Fieldwork was undertaken between 4th – 10th September 2025.
YouGov’s total sample size for the Westminster Voting Intentions MPR Model was 1, 220 adults (+18). Fieldwork was undertaken between 4th – 10th September 2025.
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We don’t hear much from Rhun and I’m proud to say I shook his big hand at Sioe Mon 13 months ago. I want to think that he is subscribing to the adage which goes something like (adjusted for Farij) ‘’Don’t interrupt your opponent when they are killing themselves’ particularly when there is no satnav that could help Nige even find Cymru. He would designate it as one of those mythical enemies which doesn’t exist. Isn’t HE in for a shock?
If the polls are correct neither Plaid or the Fascists REFORM will have a working Majority
Due to the PR system, It is unlikely that anyone will ever have a majority. Unless they get over 50% of the actual vote.
Which is the way it should be. No party should have a mandate to govern as a majority if it cannot win a majority. But STV would be better.
I agree STV would be better. However I am happy to see the back of FPTP. I hope this new system will be a stepping stone to STV.
What is the quote, “Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good”.
I hope Plaid Cymru will adopt and keep their word to use the open list.
Agreed – but Labour forced it through – and will suffer because of it
No, but the progressives (Plaid, Llafur, Lib Dems and Greens) will outnumber the combined Reform and Tory seats. So we will have a good opportunity to watch the incompetence of Reform members while preventing them from causing any damage. They are losing councillors in England at the rate of one a week, and I expect to see that here too.
You’re relying on Labour in that scenario not cry off and lick their wounds. Or in reality I don’t believe Labour will pay second fiddle to anyone. They are a spiteful bunch of children when it comes down to it.
It looks like you will be deeply disappointed then. REFORM is in Wales to stay.
The new system, is far from perfect . It denies the opportunity to vote directly for a candidate and forces you to vote only for a party, which means that of the six members who will be elected in your constituency, some that actually revolt you are sure to get in. But it ensures that every vote counts; no more getting large majorities on 30% of votes, and monority parties WILL get the seats that gheir votes deserve. It also DOES ensure that adversarial, yah-boo politics is dead in Wales. Partes will have to negotiate even with diversely opposed other… Read more »
get that far right grifter anywhere near power and Wales is screwed for a generation.
And Wales has’nt been after 25 years of Labour? Give your head a wobble 🙄
So the English far right Nationalist Tory tribute act Party for the racists and traitors won’t be running anything on these figures. And as most of us new anyway far from being a phenomenon over 70 percent of Welsh people won’t be voting for these clowns
I have a far more cautious attitude. This poll puts Reform and the Tories combined into the low 40s in terms of seats – not that far away from a majority and possibly within the margin of error? I agree that a Plaid led government is the most likely outcome at present; but all it is takes is for Labour to collapse further and some misstep from Plaid to hand the Senedd to the far right.
Can you really see the Tories acquiescing to accept the role of junior partner in a Reform UK-led administration? The humiliation would be enormous.
Yes, I can. The desire to get Welsh Labour out is strong as is the temptation of office. If the numbers fall that way, it’s perfectly possible. What’s left of Labour could face the same humiliation if Plaid are the largest party. I don’t see that one scenario is any more or less likely than the other.
We’ll see – not that long to go now! But I still don’t see it as any sort of likely outcome.
I rather agree with you about Plaid and Labour, though.
Plaid will be finished if they go into government with Labour. And I certainly can’t see Labour toeing the line as a junior partner either. Although I think Labour would initially jump at the chance to form a government – anything to cling to power and give the illusion that despite losing the election, they are still the governing party in Wales. Plaid had better be careful here.
As for the Conservatives, yes, they will likely jump into bed with Reform. Many of their MSs lean that way and they’d love a taste of power in Wales.
Agreed.
Yes.
Because Tory HQ in London has made sure Welsh Cons follow BadEnoch and she follows the GOP instructions. Anything to attack labour, they dont care.
FYI Kemi was on LBC saying Musk is a nice guy and Lennon is not all that bad.
A lot of tories are jumping ship for Reform anyway. I am sure those remaining will have no problem swallowing what is left of their pride in exchange for a job with Reform plc, just like wee Danny Kruger.
There’ll be no issue with those Tories who have already ‘jumped to Reform’, because they’ll have made their decision – for whatever reason! – already.
But I still think that any Tories who don’t feel that they can make that jump are likely to be very ready to swallow being junior partners to ‘johnny come lately’ Reform in a Senedd coalition, because accepting that secondary and subservient role would be just too humiliating to bear!
Reform have squeezed the pips so hard I don’t see they’ve got anywhere to turn now in terms of more seats. If they manage to squeeze the Tory vote a couple of percentage points more the Tories will have even less seats and Reform will still be well short. The fact is there are still more left leaning voters in Wales than right so it’s almost impossible really for Reform to get a working majority and I personally thank the Lord for that
You may be right; but the key for me is where the disaffected Labour vote is going. Until now, mostly to Plaid it seems; but it doesn’t seem entirely clear any more. If it starts to transfer to Reform in any numbers, they would increase their vote share and Plaid haven’t had outstanding results in recent Council by elections. It is almost certain that no one will get a majority; but another 3-5% on the Farage vote puts us in doomsday territory?
Oh Dear, you really need to read something other than the Daily Mirror 🤦
I notice the vote for “Others” has doubled to 4% for both the Senedd and Westminster elections. Is that because of the new Corbyn/Saltana party I wonder?
Very good point Rob it would be good to know does this include Jeremy Corbyn’s party
Maybe the Abolish Party and the Cymru Rising Party ?
Unlikely
…and the Propel Party mustn’t forget the outsiders.
Or Gwlad on another hiding to nothing.
As far as I know Abolish the Assembly, Propel, Gwlad are not included in these polling. Which makes me wonder how much Abolish could take votes away from Reform?
Another reason to worry. It is difficult to see them getting organised enough to do anything other than split the left vote further. They have spent the summer making speeches; but doing precious little else I can see. This could hand the 5th or 6th seats in a constituency to another candidate as there is unlikely to be much in it for those slots.
Once again with a 12% threshold to win a seat if you are a Green voter who doesn’t mind Reform UK and is not bothered about the environment then why not vote Green. As for Corbyn’s party they could be the cavalry that splits the left vote and gives Reform the keys to government.
Campaigning has yet to really begin, what with the election a number of months away. When it does here’s hoping the general public in Cymru begin to see sense in respect to Reform. For sure there will be far more literature and political articles/announcements out there. The fight has yet to truly begin.
BBC Wales unlikley to expose reform for what they are (politically BBC are a mess). Not sure on ITV Wales, I hope they do , CH4 News knows what farage is and places like Sky will have no clue. Then that leaves the usual suspect mail and torygraph, Murdochs rags etc. and they will be against Labour on principle. They already are. And they are already laying the ground work for reform. Then we have Musk. His platform is a sewer of hate and lies and recently he called for violent coup in the UK and has shown an interest… Read more »
Important to note that Reform cannot keep a ship afloat even when they win control of a county council in England, defections left right and centre. They have no leader in Wales and they even have an attrition rate of 1 in 5 of those MPs elected to the Westminster House. So any talk of coalitions or deals or cooperation agreements needed with Reform sitting in the chamber is meaningless. If Reform were in a restaurant there’d be a fight over the bill. This disintegration is also showing it’s nature within Labour circles. A rabble of self interest and toadying.
reform councils are now pushing climate denial rubbish. They are also following their leader in anti vax. recent converts have previous with anti abortion and taking away women’s rights.
I urge everyone to follow Political Custard on You Tube – there is no shortage of material for their reporting on incompetent, hypocritical and failed Reform councillors.
Yet another mickey mouse poll designed to fool people complacent enough to believe that they don’t have to work hard to secure victory. Get communicating with the electorate otherwise slick Nige and his mates will sneak in and that will be a rude awakening.
The BBC is the mainstream media in Wales and it’s all about Reform. As if Wales doesn’t exist. There is (in English) Radio Wales which has more Duran Duran than current affairs coverage and their ‘regional’ TV offering is more about goats in Llandudno or windy day in Aberdaron. There is no Pawb a’i Farn or any coverage current affairs in English for Wales. Latest BBC piece on Caerphilly they do a piece to castle and add in some plinky plonky music like they do with Attenborough meeting Gorillas.
Encouraging news, but I have to stress against being complacent. Six months is a long time in politics, and every vote matters. Expect the ‘England and Wales’ edition of the Sun to back Reform (assuming they care about Welsh politics) whilst the Scottish edition backs the SNP. Were Reform to win then they will have a mandate to not only undermine the Welsh nation, but also exploit our resources. Half a century onwards from Phil Bennett’s passionate speech yet some people are still happy for this to happen. What isn’t encouraging however is how polarised Welsh politics is becoming. A… Read more »
The lack of preference voting risks splitting the pro-Wales vote so perhaps there will need to be a pro-Wales alliance where parties agree to stand aside in some constituencies and unite behind the one most likely to beat the Abolish Wales party. The maths is untested under the new system but it might even be possible for all parties in the alliance to get more members into the Senedd this way.
The fact that no party wins an overall majority does NOT necessitate coalition building. The SNP went into government initially as a minority administration. If Plaid were the largest party, it would be entirely feasible for them to form a minority administration. Lab, LibDem and Green members would have a choice between supporting a PC administration or putting Reform / Tories into government.
Coalition building is still needed in a minority government otherwise legislation doesn’t pass. It may only be on a vote-by-vote basis but no opposition member should support a minority government unless there’s something in it for their voters.
That is true and I don’t want to split hairs – but I do not consider ad hoc arrangements to win support on individual votes in the Senedd without fear or favour to be a coalition. To me, a coalition means a formal pact of broad application.
If Plaid emerges as the largest party after the Senedd elections in May, they should take the bull by the horns and go for it.
Labour are too damaged to go into coalition with, would be unlikely to toe the line as a “junior” partner and after the previous year, I don’t believe voters would forgive Plaid if they joined forces with Labour.
Any of the left-leaning parties would be foolish indeed to jeopardise a Plaid-minority government knowing the risks were it to fail.
I feel a North South divide occurring!
Plaid and Labour should be very afraid, they both ganged up to push through voting reform/change, thinking that they could carve up the Senedd membership using the appointed new members appointed system. However it is quite possible that at the next Senedd elections that Wales will be the only UK country to having the Reform Party at the helm.
Bang goes outlandish bonkers policies, and in will come facist ones.