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Shock poll predicts Boris Johnson would lose Welsh ‘red wall’ seats and majority

03 Jan 2021 2 minute read
Boris Johnson. Picture by Kuhlmann /MSC (CC BY 3.0 DE).

Boris Johnson’s majority faces being wiped out as he loses “red wall” seats in Wales, according to damning new opinion poll.

The poll, conducted by Focaldata, predicts that both the Tories and Labour would be short of a majority, which would leave the SNP holding the balance of power.

More than 22,000 people were surveyed in a constituency-by-constituency poll, which was carried out over a four-week period in December, at a time where Christmas was cancelled for thousands of families, the UK teetered on the edge of a possible no deal Brexit, and cases of coronavirus surged.

It suggests that the Conservatives, who currently have an 80 seat majority, would lose 81. This would leave them with 284 seats, while Labour would win 282 seats, which would be an overall increase of 82.

Half of the seats Labour would gain are in Wales, the north of England, and the Midlands, which voted Labour in 2017 before switching to the Tories in 2019.

The survey forecasts that the Conservatives would cling on to just eight of the 43 “red wall” seats, none of which are in Wales.



The Scottish National Party is predicted to win 57 of the 59 seats in Scotland, which would leave them as kingmakers. A combination of the Labour and the SNP would have a majority of 20.

The poll also predicts the Liberal Democrats would be reduced to just two seats from their current 11.

If the survey is accurate, Boris Johnson is, on course to lose his own seat of Uxbridge and Ruislip South.

Justin Ibbett, founder of Focaldata, told the Sunday Times: “One year on from their stunning general election triumph, it is clear that the Conservatives already have a lot of work to do if they are to replicate their 2019 success in future elections.

“The SNP would appear to be the real winners. Not only do they win all but two Scottish constituencies, but the most likely outcome is a Labour-SNP coalition government, which would have an overall majority of just over 20 seats.”

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