SNP bound to win ‘vast bulk’ of constituencies if polls are accurate – Curtice

The SNP could win the “vast bulk” of Scotland’s constituencies if polls turn out to be accurate next week, Sir John Curtice has said.

The polling expert said the SNP’s lead over its rivals suggests John Swinney’s party will be the largest in the Scottish Parliament, though polls vary on whether it will achieve a majority.

Out of the 129 seats at Holyrood, 73 are constituency seats elected by the first-past-the-post method.

Sir John said the fact the Scottish Greens are only standing in six of the constituencies has not been reflected in much of the polling.

Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland’s Breakfast programme, he said the SNP, Conservatives and Labour have all seen declines in their share of the vote compared to the last election.

The question of Scotland’s constitutional future is still “very important” to voters, he added.

The overall picture for polling “hasn’t moved much” during the campaign, he said, adding: “One of the things to be aware of is that many, though not all, of the polls have not taken due account of the fact that the Greens are only fighting six of the 73 constituencies.”

He continued: “Frankly, the three governing parties of Scotland (SNP, Labour and the Conservatives), they’re all doing badly this election.

“But it does mean the SNP have something like a 17-point lead over everybody else…

“If the SNP are indeed anything like that far ahead, and given that their vote is more or less the same from Wick to Stranraer, they’re bound to win the vast bulk of the constituencies.”

This could result in Mr Swinney’s party getting 60 seats or so, though Sir John stressed polls do not agree on the extent of the SNP lead.

He said: “To that extent at least, still plenty to fight over in the last week.”

In the final seven days of the campaign, parties are stepping up their efforts to woo voters.

All of the six main parties have now released their manifestos and their leaders have clashed in a series of TV debates.