Starmer ‘deeply disappointed’ at Caerphilly by-election loss and says ‘we need to do more’

Sir Keir Starmer said he was “deeply disappointed” by Labour’s loss in the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly and conceded the ruling party “clearly need to do much more”.

The Prime Minister said the UK and Welsh administrations need to “reflect and regroup” after Friday’s result, which saw Plaid Cymru sweep to victory with Reform UK coming second.

Asked whether he would resign if he could not turn around Labour’s fortunes by the Senedd elections in May, Sir Keir said: “In relation to the by-election, look, I’m deeply disappointed in the results.
“I’m not going to suggest otherwise.

“I spoke to the First Minister this morning, and clearly we need to reflect and regroup and double down on delivery in Wales, and we clearly need to do much more.”

‘Disappointing’

Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds said Labour’s loss was “disappointing” and pointed to a “fractured political landscape” in the UK.

Reform candidate Llyr Powell got 12,113 votes – the party had only 495 four years ago – with Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe trailing on 3,713, down from 13,289 in 2021, when there was a lower turnout.
Conservative candidate Gareth Potter received just 690 votes, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats getting 516 and 497 respectively.

Meanwhile, polling expert Sir John Curtice said the result showed Labour was in “severe trouble” in Wales, after Plaid emerged victorious with a majority of 3,848 votes, and a swing of almost 27% from Labour, on a high turnout of more than 50%.

Lindsay Whittle received 15,961 votes, more than 47% of the total, which is up almost 19% from the 2021 result in the constituency with a swing from Labour of almost 27%.

After an election rally with supporters in Caerphilly Mr Whittle travelled to Cardiff to be sworn in as the Senedd’s newest member.

‘Real choice’

Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said the result showed that Plaid was the “real choice” for Wales.

He said the people of Caerphilly had chosen “hope over division and progress over the tired status quo” as they backed Plaid Cymru’s “positive, pro-Wales vision”.

“This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative.

“We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone.

“The message from Caerphilly is clear: Wales is ready for new leadership, and Plaid Cymru is leading the way.”

Labour minister Mr Thomas-Symonds, the MP for Torfaen in Wales, told Times Radio: “I certainly accept, and the First Minister, Eluned Morgan, has accepted, that we have a very tough fight on our hands for next May.”

Sir John said the result suggests Plaid are now “well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister”.
He said Reform UK would be disappointed at coming second, but added: “I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.”

The result is “pretty consistent” with the way Mr Farage’s party has been polling generally, he said.
“It’s just that it isn’t going to be strong enough to win an election if you’re facing a strong alternative, which in this case was Plaid, whereas of course in the county council elections earlier this year that wasn’t the case.”

Disappointing

Reform UK chairman David Bull told BBC Breakfast: “In some ways (it’s) disappointing for us, but actually it’s an amazing result on the other hand, because actually we’re only four years old as a party.”

Labour Senedd member Alun Davies criticised Westminster Labour for the way it had been speaking about refugees and “using the language of Reform” in comments to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

Mr Thomas-Symonds rejected the idea that had put voters off and left Labour vulnerable from the left.
He told the programme: “I don’t accept that. It’s about tackling the underlying issues that people raised to you on the doorstep.

“And anyway, the Prime Minister’s party conference speech openly took on Reform, and it’s about listening to what people say.

“And with regard to the issue of the small boats crossing the English Channel and securing our borders, that is because people are saying to us, very clearly, it’s a huge priority for them that we have secure borders.”

He later added: “But that isn’t to say we haven’t called out Reform time and time again.”

He told LBC his party would need to “redouble” its efforts to speed up the pace of change and show “in word and deed” that it is the best option for voters in Wales.

“We treat the result with humility. We will then act upon that, redouble our efforts in the six months before the Senedd election,” he said.

Reform’s candidate Mr Powell said that despite coming in second, he thought his party would form a government in Wales in 2026, and he would be seeking to get more people registered to vote in the coming weeks.

“Moving forward, you can see Labour in decline, and there’s one party that’s surging here, and you can see from tonight’s result that’s Reform UK,” he said.

1999

Labour has led the Welsh Parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999.
But in recent polling, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK were forecast to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year.

The victory for Plaid Cymru comes in the run-up to a vote on the Welsh Government budget, which has been a source of anxiety for the Labour administration.

When passing its last budget in March, the Government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through by a tight margin.

While Labour is the largest party, it does not have a majority, and the next budget vote will be even more difficult after losing the Caerphilly seat.

First Minister Ms Morgan said: “This was a by-election in the toughest of circumstances and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally.”

She added: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.

“We take our share of the responsibility for this result.

“We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be coming back stronger.”