Steep drop in birth rate places school budgets in future jeopardy

Nicholas Thomas, Local Democracy Reporter

A steep drop in birth rates across Caerphilly County Borough has thrown the future of some schools into jeopardy.

A council report warns the borough’s decreasing birth rate is affecting demand for school places, leading to surpluses.

This “mismatch” then has a knock-on effect on budgets and schools’ sustainability, the council said, as members of its education committee agreed to back a new working group to investigate the trend.

Its work follows the closures of Rhydri Primary School, in Rudry, last summer and Cwm Glas Infants School, in Llanbradach, a year earlier.

Both schools were shut down because of falling local birth rates, which left them facing increased costs.

The case in Rudry proved controversial among community members who argued the council should have done more to make the school viable.

The committee agreed on Wednesday January 27 to support the working group, which will be made up of four committee members and six other councillors from each corner of the borough.

Headteachers and council officers will also join the group “to ensure broad and balanced representation”.

A report describes a “continual falling birth rate” dropping from 2,000 births a year to around 1,400 over a ten-year period.

“Significantly fewer” children are entering the primary school system as a result, creating “surplus places across many schools”.

The council argues it needs to update its education model “to one that is more efficient, provides a higher quality of outcomes, and is sustainable”.

“Without a strategic review of primary educational provision, there is a risk that our school infrastructure will not reflect future demand, leading to inefficient use of assets and missed opportunities to improve outcomes for learners,” a report warns.

The local authority believes establishing the working group “will enable a structured, evidence-based approach to developing primary school reorganisation proposals”.

One casualty of this decision is Caerphilly’s school-building programme.

The council is set to postpone any projects that haven’t reached the Welsh Government’s full business case stage until the working group’s review is completed.

It argues this postponement is “prudent” given the amount of money involved in building new schools.

Some of the money previously set aside for a new joint bilingual campus in Rhymney has instead been diverted towards helping pay for the A469 road repair project.