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Tax hiked and growth downgraded as details of Budget released early

26 Nov 2025 2 minute read
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves poses outside 11 Downing Street, London, with her ministerial red box, before delivering her Budget in the House of Commons. Image: James Manning/PA Wire

The UK’s economy will grow more slowly than predicted over the next four years, according to a forecast that was published early in a Budget blunder.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast gross domestic product would grow by 1.5% this year, an increase from its earlier 1% forecast.

But it downgraded growth in 2026 from 1.9% to 1.4%, in 2027 from 1.8% to 1.5%, in 2028 from 1.7% to 1.5% and in 2029 from 1.8% to 1.5%.

The OBR document also confirmed Rachel Reeves’s Budget “raises taxes by amounts rising to £26 billion in 2029-30, through freezing personal tax thresholds and a host of smaller measures”.

The freeze in tax thresholds will result in 780,000 more basic-rate, 920,000 more higher-rate, and 4,000 more additional-rate income tax payers in 2029/30, raking in about £8 billion for the Exchequer.

The freeze will extend for three years to 2030/31.

Other personal tax changes include £4.7 billion through charging national insurance on salary-sacrificed pension contributions, and £2.1 billion through increasing tax rates on dividends, property and savings income by two percentage points.

Measures revealed by the OBR document include:

– The amount of headroom the Government has against the Chancellor’s day-to-day spending rule will widen to £22 billion in 2029-30, £12 billion more than in March.

– The 5p cut in fuel duty will remain in place until September 2026, when it will be reversed through a staggered approach.

– The two-child benefit cap is being removed at an estimated cost of £3 billion by 2029-30.

– A high-value council tax surcharge on properties worth more than £2 million will raise £0.4 billion in 2029-30.

– Debt will rise from 95% of GDP this year to 96.1% by the end of the decade.

The OBR document is not meant to be released until after the Chancellor has delivered her Budget in the House of Commons.

But it was published on the Budget watchdog’s website early, the latest in a series of leaks and early disclosures in the run-up to Ms Reeves’ statement.


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