Telegraph column uses census figures for England and Wales to defend Reform MS’s ‘replacement’ claim

A Telegraph columnist has used census figures for England and Wales to defend Reform UK MS Joe Martin’s claim that white British people are being “replaced”.

The figures show how the population’s ethnic make-up has changed and offer no evidence of the deliberate effort alleged by the far-right Great Replacement conspiracy theory.

Writing on Thursday, Stephen Daisley called the Senedd’s ruling on Caerdydd Penarth MS Joe Martin a “pretext for censoring a viewpoint”.

In his ruling, Llywydd Huw Irranca-Davies explicitly said members could raise legitimate questions about immigration policy. He ruled that Martin’s remarks were discriminatory and offensive and said he would not call on the MS to speak until he apologised and showed he understood the limits of acceptable parliamentary conduct.

Daisley cited a fall from 87.5% in 2001 to 74.4% in 2021 in the share of people in England and Wales who identified in the census category he described as “white British”.

In Wales alone, 90.6% identified as white Welsh, English, Scottish, Northern Irish or British in 2021, down from 93.2% in 2011.

The Office for National Statistics says migration, ageing, birth and death rates and changes in how people identify can all affect the figures.

Martin told the Senedd on Tuesday that immigration and differing birth rates would make white British people a minority in the UK by 2063. He gave no source in the chamber.

The date matches a projection published in 2025 by Matt Goodwin, who went on to stand for Reform UK in February’s Gorton and Denton by-election, losing to the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer.

Goodwin’s model used an earlier ONS assumption of 340,000 net migrants a year over the long term. The ONS revised that assumption down to 230,000 in April.

Fraser Nelson, the former editor of The Spectator, criticised Goodwin’s model for overlooking evidence that birth rates among migrant families tend to move towards the national average over time.

The ONS says it does not produce population projections by ethnicity.

Standing orders

Martin claimed in a GB News column that Plaid Cymru had asked the Llywydd to bar him from speaking. The Senedd transcript records Trefnydd Heledd Fychan asking the Deputy Presiding Officer to rule on whether the remarks complied with Standing Orders. Mr Irranca-Davies issued his ruling later, after consulting his deputy and reviewing the record.

Reform boycotted Wednesday’s plenary proceedings, missing its own debate on support for the armed forces and veterans.

The party’s chief whip, Llŷr Powell, has tabled a motion calling for freedom of speech to be upheld and defended. It is due to be debated on 18 November.