Three parties neck and neck in new Senedd poll

Martin Shipton

Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are bunched together in a new poll on voting intentions for next year’s Senedd election, with all three parties leading amongst different sections of the population.

The Conservatives are trailing in fourth place.

The poll, conducted by Beaufort Research for Nation.Cymru, puts Labour in the overall lead on 27%, three points ahead of Plaid Cymru on 24%, and a further point ahead of Reform on 23%.

The Conservatives are on 16%, Greens are on 5%, the Liberal Democrats on 4% and other parties are on a total of 2%.

People’s preferences were only included in the polling figures if they indicated that the likelihood of their voting was at least nine out of 10 and could name a party they intended to vote for.

Variations

There are interesting variations in voting intention according to gender, region, age, social class and whether people can speak Welsh or not.

Amongst women, Plaid Cymru is the leading party, with 27% of the vote, followed by Labour on 25%, Reform on 22%, Conservatives 16%, Greens 6%, Lib Dems 3% and other parties 1%.

By contrast, Labour leads with 29% amongst men, with Reform on 24% and Plaid on 20%. The Conservatives also poll at 16% among men, with Lib Dems and Greens both on 4% and other parties on 3%.

In North and Mid Wales, Plaid Cymru leads with 27%, ahead of Reform on 24%, the Conservatives on 19%, Labour on 17%, the Lib Dems on 7%, the Greens 4% and other parties 3%.

In South West Wales and the Valleys, Plaid Cymru and Labour are both on 28%, Reform 25%, the Conservatives 14%, the Greens 4%, the Lib Dems 0% and other parties 1%.

In Cardiff and South East Wales, Labour are way ahead on 38%, Reform on 18%, the Conservatives on 16%, Plaid Cymru on 11%, the Greens 8%, Lib Dems 6% and other parties 3%.

Age

In terms of age, Labour is well ahead among those aged between 16 and 34 with 39%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 23%, Reform on 17%, the Greens on 9%, the Conservatives on just 7% and others on 1%.

So far as people aged between 35 and 54 are concerned, Labour leads with 33%, Reform is on 26%, Plaid Cymru 18%, the Conservatives 12%, the Greens 6% and other parties 1%.

For those aged 55 and over, Plaid Cymru leads with 27%, Reform are on 23%, the Conservatives are on 21%, Labour 20%, Lib Dems and the Greens both on 3% and other parties on 2%.

Results according to social class had notable variations too. Amongst the more prosperous ABC1 social grade people, Labour leads with 31%, followed by Plaid on 24%, Reform on 19%, the Conservatives on 15%, the Greens on 5%, the Lib Dems 4% and other parties 2%.

In the less prosperous C2DE social grades, Reform led with 28%, with Plaid on 24%, Labour 23%, the Conservatives 17%, the Greens 5%, the Lib Dems 3% and others 2%.

Welsh speakers

Welsh speakers put Plaid Cymru in the lead with 43%, followed by Labour on 26%, Reform on 16%, the Conservatives 9%, the Greens 3%, the Lib Dems 2% and other parties 0%.

For those unable to speak Welsh, Labour lead with 28%, Reform are on 25%, the Conservatives on 18%, Plaid Cymru on 17%, the Greens on 5%, the Lib Dems 4% and other parties 2%.

Fieldwork took place between March 3 and March 23, when 1,000 interviews were conducted online. Of these, 514 filled all the suitable criteria including expressing a preference for a party and being at least 90% sure that they would vote.