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Tories face huge losses across Wales at General Election according to new YouGov MRP poll

28 May 2022 3 minute read
James Davies picture by David Woolfall (CC BY 3.0). Virginia Crosbie picture by Stacey Mutkin (CC BY-SA 4.0). Sarah Atherton picture by David Woolfall (CC BY 3.0).

The Conservatives would face huge losses in Wales if a General Election was held now, losing nine of the 14 seats they currently hold, a new poll has projected.

The YouGov MRP poll published today shows eight battleground seats swinging to Labour, and Ynys Môn to Plaid Cymru by 21 points.

Bridgend, Clwyd South, Delyn, Wrexham and the Vale of Clwyd would all fall to Labour by more than 15 points. Meanwhile, the Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy, and Preseli Pembrokeshire would also fall by a smaller margin.

The Conservatives would cling on in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Monmouth, Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.

Wales would see one of the largest drops in Conservative support across the UK, with their vote plunging 12% compared to 2019.

The new map would leave Wales’ map looking very different to 2019 when Conservatives made huge progress in the north of Wales. Now their seats would be concentrated in mid and south Wales.

‘Boundaries’

Across England, the poll also predicts large-scale losses for the Conservatives, including the Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

From the 88 constituencies which the Conservatives either (a) won from Labour in 2019, or (b) currently hold with a majority of less than 15pts over Labour, our modelling predicts that just three would remain in Conservative hands: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North.

YouGov Director Patrick English however warned that it was too early for Labour to start coating to the next General Election.

“While Labour look set to take back a raft of ‘Red Wall’ areas from the Conservatives, based on current polling, the Tory vote in some places – particularly those in more rural areas up and down the East of the country – means, some newly-minted Conservative incumbents will fare much better than others,” he said.

“There is however a lot of uncertainty around these figures. The next election is of course not scheduled for another two years, and the boundaries on which it will be fought are currently planned to change.

“What’s more, no fewer than 25 battleground constituencies are currently forecasted to be won by a margin of less than five percentage points – well inside what we would consider a ‘margin of error’ for an exercise of this nature.”

YouGov interviewed over 15,045 voters across England between 19-27 May, and 2,086 voters in Wales between 28 April and 27 May.


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Erisian
Erisian
6 months ago

They’ll none of them be missed – I’ve got a little list.

Cofid
Cofid
6 months ago
Reply to  Erisian

Neither will I miss seeing their smug Tory faces on these pages.

Andrew Davies
Andrew Davies
6 months ago

Erm…..Last time I checked, my MP in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr was Jonathan Edwards, a Plaid Cymru MP when elected. Certainly NOT a Tory. #fact-check

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
6 months ago

Don’t worry, time for another dozen or so scandals in the next two years. That’s enough time for them to wipe themselves out completely.

Malcolm rj
Malcolm rj
6 months ago

Be fair fair with that fantastic Welsh secutery of state how are the conservatives loasing votes ???

Peter Cuthbert
Peter Cuthbert
6 months ago
Reply to  Malcolm rj

The trouble is, if he suddenly gets a Welsh advisor and changes his tune to being pro-Wales, there is the risk that people might belive him and give him their vote. UNfortunately people’s political memories are often very short. Note how Jeremy Hunt si now bein lauded as a potential new leader of the Tories and is the media’s goto person for comment on the NHS. However, they seem to forget that he was the Health Secretary who precipitated the first stike in the NHS and who published a pamphlet extolling the vritues of privatising the NHS. He just happens… Read more »

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
6 months ago

All the Tory MPs in Wales deserve to lose their seats. And the people in those constituencies who voted for such reprobates, and there are many, especially treacherous David TC Davies and Simon Hart, should hang their heads in shame!

Meic Pattison, Bangor
Meic Pattison, Bangor
6 months ago

Oh lord, let it be!

In fact it will be up to us, let’s make sure and ensure there’s an anti-toraidh alignment to drive them out, back from whence they came.

I. Humphrys
I. Humphrys
6 months ago

Worst government in Westminster ever? Of course, for us any Westminster Gov. is and always has been. Yes Cymru should transform into a non aligned part of liberation?

Gruff Williams
Gruff Williams
6 months ago

Demographic change needs to be taken into account. Developments in the housing market have seen the Welsh-born, Welsh identifying percentage plummet in place like Wrexham and Ynys Mon.

SundanceKid
SundanceKid
6 months ago
Reply to  Gruff Williams

And in places like Gwynedd, Ynys Mon, Carmarthen and Ceredigion, the Plaid vote has surged as a result.

Richard
Richard
6 months ago

I hear chickens coming home to roost……🐔

Foad
Foad
6 months ago

Surprised there’s no mention of Guto Harri
And his drunken and lecherous behaviour that’s being reported in other media outlets?

SundanceKid
SundanceKid
6 months ago

Not overwhelmingly good news for Labour either. They may well recover some seats from the Tories but they may not recover all of them. Ynys Mon is still a three-way battleground Parliamentary constituency and given the Senedd and Council election results, it seems to be trending strongly towards Plaid at the moment.

Also, there will be eight less seats to fight for in Wales come 2024.

Cynan
Cynan
6 months ago
Reply to  SundanceKid

Gains for Plaid will be good news. Given the English tendency to vote for the worst of all options, perhaps Labour would need to deal with Plaid to govern and we could get stuff beneficial to Cymru though Wasteminstercfor a change

Cynan
Cynan
6 months ago

This is terrible news! There would still be 5 Tories left?!
oh and what are you thinking Welsh Carmarthenshire? The other places I can sort of understand. They have high volumes of English voters who skew the results in contradiction to the intents of the native population. It’s how “Wales” apparently voted for Brexit

Argol fawr!
Argol fawr!
6 months ago

Guardian NP today… “Boris Johnson to reportedly bring back imperial measurements to mark platinum jubilee“

If its anything other than playful journalism, they must be saturated on something other than alcohol at that No.10 party pad.

stuart stanton
stuart stanton
6 months ago

Here in W. Yorks the Wakefield by-election getting going….only one message from voters ‘kick’em all out’

Adarynefoedd
Adarynefoedd
5 months ago

Surprised that all the polling still favours the Conservatives in Brecon and Radnorshire – in the recent county council elections Lib Dems did very well, don’t think any Conservatives were elected. Mont still a big problem though with quite a few Conservatives elected and I don’t really understand why the Lib Dem vote has collapsed since 2010 never really recovered after Lembik’s antics.

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