Tories face huge losses across Wales at General Election according to new YouGov MRP poll
The Conservatives would face huge losses in Wales if a General Election was held now, losing nine of the 14 seats they currently hold, a new poll has projected.
The YouGov MRP poll published today shows eight battleground seats swinging to Labour, and Ynys Môn to Plaid Cymru by 21 points.
Bridgend, Clwyd South, Delyn, Wrexham and the Vale of Clwyd would all fall to Labour by more than 15 points. Meanwhile, the Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy, and Preseli Pembrokeshire would also fall by a smaller margin.
The Conservatives would cling on in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Monmouth, Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.
Wales would see one of the largest drops in Conservative support across the UK, with their vote plunging 12% compared to 2019.
The new map would leave Wales’ map looking very different to 2019 when Conservatives made huge progress in the north of Wales. Now their seats would be concentrated in mid and south Wales.
Across England, the poll also predicts large-scale losses for the Conservatives, including the Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
From the 88 constituencies which the Conservatives either (a) won from Labour in 2019, or (b) currently hold with a majority of less than 15pts over Labour, our modelling predicts that just three would remain in Conservative hands: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North.
YouGov Director Patrick English however warned that it was too early for Labour to start coating to the next General Election.
“While Labour look set to take back a raft of ‘Red Wall’ areas from the Conservatives, based on current polling, the Tory vote in some places – particularly those in more rural areas up and down the East of the country – means, some newly-minted Conservative incumbents will fare much better than others,” he said.
“There is however a lot of uncertainty around these figures. The next election is of course not scheduled for another two years, and the boundaries on which it will be fought are currently planned to change.
“What’s more, no fewer than 25 battleground constituencies are currently forecasted to be won by a margin of less than five percentage points – well inside what we would consider a ‘margin of error’ for an exercise of this nature.”
YouGov interviewed over 15,045 voters across England between 19-27 May, and 2,086 voters in Wales between 28 April and 27 May.
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