UK could face importing 70% of oil and gas needs by 2030, new report warns
The UK could have to import 70% of its oil and gas demand by the end of this decade if there is not “sustained investment” in the sector, industry leaders have warned.
It comes after a report said production from the North Sea fell to a “historic low” in 2024, leaving the UK needing imports of oil and gas to meet more than 40% of its energy needs.
That is despite Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) insisting there are still “significant oil and gas reserves” in the North Sea, with the industry body saying these could be realised if there was “continued support for the sector”.
Windfall tax
As part of this, OEUK chief executive David Whitehouse argued that scrapping the current windfall tax on oil and gas, and replacing it with more “appropriate price mechanisms”, could help deliver more than two billion barrels of oil and gas – and add up to £150 billion to the UK’s economy.
His comments came as OEUK’s 2025 economic report said a return to a “competitive and stable” tax and regulatory regime could see the UK continental shelf “delivering over half of the UK oil and gas demand between now and net zero in 2050”.
It warned as it stands “without sustained investment, the UK will be reliant on imports for 70% of its oil and gas demand by 2030”.
Mr Whitehouse, meanwhile, said the current energy profits levy is “stifling investment” in the North Sea.
The charge, also known as the windfall levy, was first introduced on oil and gas companies by the Tory government, but was increased by the Labour government in 2024.
‘Exceptional profits’
It was brought in to tax “exceptional profits from oil and gas production”, but the OEUK report – launched during the Offshore Europe 2025 conference in Aberdeen – noted that “oil prices have fallen substantially and gas prices are no longer sitting at record highs”.
As such, it argued “the environment in which the energy profits levy (EPL) was introduced no longer exists”.
The report also insisted the levy had “not delivered the expected tax revenue, with less than 40% of the forecast 2022 tax revenue now expected to be achieved in the period from 2023 to 2028”.
Under the current regime, research for OEUK has suggested the UKCS could produce up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE).
But with “significant changes”, this could be increased to 7.5 billion BOE, it suggested.
To help achieve this, OEUK says the country needs a “stable and globally competitive fiscal policy” with incentives for investment in oil and gas, and a “clear long-term commitment to ongoing licensing”.
It also wants to see a faster approvals process for new developments and what it describes as “pragmatic, proportional, and achievable net zero regulations”.
Mr Whitehouse stressed that “with the right fiscal and economic policies”, the North Sea could “power us into a new era of economic success”.
Adding that “policymakers have the power and the responsibility to make this happen”, he insisted there is “no time to lose”.
- Job losses
The industry chief stated there are currently “as many as 1,000 UK oil and gas jobs a month being lost – a trend set to continue until at least 2030 and we are seeing a growing new phenomenon of record-breaking energy imports”.
Mr Whitehouse said: “Urgent and pragmatic reform is needed to give UK-based firms, workers and their communities a fighting chance to build the nation’s industrial future and shield households from the volatility of relying on imports. Stable homegrown energy means more high value UK jobs and more predictable bills.
“With sensible policy reform we could produce half of the oil and gas we need right here at home as we scale up renewables.
“This is not just about industry, it’s about making sure families have affordable, reliable energy through the 2030s and beyond.”
He added that replacing the energy profits levy with “an appropriate price mechanism” could “help attract investment in more than two billion barrels of oil and gas across the UK continental shelf (UKCS) and add £150 billion of value to the whole UK economy”.
A UK Government spokesperson said: “North Sea oil and gas production will continue to play an important role for decades to come, which is why we are partnering with companies and workers to manage our existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan.
“We are already delivering a fair and orderly transition in the North Sea to drive growth and secure skilled jobs for future generations, with the biggest-ever investment in offshore wind and two first-of-a-kind carbon capture and storage clusters.
“We are committed to delivering the manifesto commitment to not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis.”
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Dinosaurs live! Still silly season, I suppose, but we ignore climate change at our peril and condemn our children and grandchildren to a painful and hungry existence. It should not be a surprise that Farrago, Starmer, Badenoch and others are being joined by the clearly self-interested like David Whitehouse and his ilk in seeking the profits of doom (sic). More energy = more pollution, more resource depletion, more heat, more conflict, less employment, more deprivation… Lip service to reducing our energy use (the only survivable solution) and conserving our environment for at least two generations has not increased our security… Read more »
About 15years ago when I went to Germany I met up with a friend of mine an eminent renowned Nuclear Scientist who told me about the Climate Crisis and that it was a scam purportrated by these rich individual globalist elite.He agreed to speak then Shwarb offered him a script to read from.He declined his offer as it went against what he knew was a scam.Shwarb then offered him big bucks to speak.He declined the offer but colleagues of his took the 30 piece of silver and spoke.My friend retired shortly after and sadly passed away. A gentleman and a… Read more »
One of a very small and rapidly reducing minority then.
I wouldn’t count on it, David Jones.
Your eminent friend could be accused of self-interest, but could as well simply be wrong.
Yet Exxon Knew in the 70s.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2354492-exxon-scientists-in-the-1970s-accurately-predicted-climate-change/
I thought it would e higher than that
Arsonists insist they get more fuel to set fire to the place.
Month or so ago we did over 50% energy from green. That is what they fear. Their pension funds losing a million or two.
We might have produced 50% of our electricity ‘from green’, but that is a long way away from producing 50% of our energy ‘from green’. Electricity is about 20% of our energy, the rest is direct use of fossil fuels for heating, transport and industrial uses. To help you with your arithmetic, 50% of 20% is 10%. That is the contribution that ‘green’ sources are making. Sure it is increasing year on year in Britain, but after decades of spending billions on the energy transition, there is an awful long way to go before fossil fuels aren’t needed any more.
I wonder if OEUK would support nationalising the oil fields. If it’s really about jobs and security of supply they will. If their real motivation is more profits for billionaires they might be less excited.
They can sell it all on the open market and make a profit and we have to buy it back at a higher rate. They know how to inflate their profits at our expense.
While the UK follows a self-harming policy of minimising new production from the UK North Sea, Norway is increasing production on their side and the UK is increasing imports of oil and gas from Norway. It is not about saving the planet, it is all about the ‘optics’ and a government that is even more obsessed than the previous one with harming Britain’s interests (reduced tax-take, increased import costs and reduced employment) so that they can pat each other on the back for their supposedly green credentials, while making no difference whatsoever to emissions. It is a farce.