UK growth slowed sharply in second quarter, ONS confirms

The UK economy grew by an unrevised 0.3% between April and June as official figures confirmed a marked slowdown from the first quarter, but revealed growth was better than first thought throughout much of last year.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed second quarter growth remained unchanged from its earlier estimate, at 0.3%, marking a steep pull-back from 0.7% expansion in the first three months of the year.

While data for 2025 so far has been unrevised, the ONS said it revised quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) throughout 2024, though the overall annual growth rate last year remained at 1.1%.

The ONS revisions for 2024 mean that growth in the first quarter was revised down from 0.9% to 0.8%, but up from 0.5% to 0.6% for the second quarter, up from zero to 0.2% in the third and up from 0.1% to 0.2% in the final three months.

Fall

The data also showed a rebound in household disposable income per person between April and June 2025, which increased by 0.2%, compared with a 0.9% fall in the first three months.

The ONS said this was driven by a rise of £4.4 billion in wages, largely in the private sector, while at the same time there was a £4 billion fall in taxes on income but this related to the 2023-24 tax year.

Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, said: “Growth for 2024 as a whole is unrevised, though these new figures show the economy grew a little less strongly at the start of last year than our initial estimates suggested but performed better in later quarters.

“Quarterly growth rates for 2025 are unrevised.

“In the latest quarter we saw an increase in the household saving ratio, very little growth in consumer spending and a slight fall in output for consumer facing services, despite growth in services overall.”

Budget

The data also showed that households chose to save more of their income, with the household saving ratio rising to 10.7%, up from 10.5% in the first quarter.

Thomas Pugh, chief economist at audit and consulting firm RSM UK, said: “The increase in the saving ratio suggests consumers turned more cautious in the second quarter.

“The big question now is whether speculation about the Budget will undermine confidence further.”

He added that growth is likely to come under pressure in the second half of the year amid rising inflation and slowing wage growth, while the chances of further interest rate cuts in 2025 now “look slim”.

Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser at the EY Item Club, said he also believed that growth will be “sluggish” in the coming quarters.

“Alongside squeezed real income, further tax rises at the autumn Budget look almost inevitable,” he said.