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UK national debt on track to triple over next 50 years, warns OBR

12 Sep 2024 2 minute read
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. Photo Jonathan Brady/PA Wire

Government action will be needed to stop the UK national debt spiralling amid pressure from an ageing population and climate change, the fiscal watchdog has warned.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said national debt is on an “unsustainable path” and on track to triple against the size of the economy over the next 50 years without “mitigating policy action”.

The latest OBR Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report said the public debt is set to jump to over 270% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the mid-2070s.

UK national debt currently stands at around £2.7 trillion, or 99.4% of GDP, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics for July.

This sits around the highest levels the UK has seen since the early 1960s.

Ageing population

The latest report highlighted that an ageing population linked to the falling birth rate, fiscal costs from climate change and rising geopolitical tensions are all expected to put increased pressure on Treasury budgets.

Currently, public spending is at almost 45% of GDP for the past fiscal year – its highest sustained level for almost 50 years.

The OBR said these potential pressures could push public spending to over 60% of GDP over the next 50 years.

However, it projected that state revenues – money brought in, predominantly through taxes – are expected to remain at around 40% of GDP.

The report said: “If these pressures and shocks were to materialise as we project, then governments would need to take mitigating policy action to prevent this debt spiral from occurring.”

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said: “The OBR has laid bare the shocking state that our public finances were left in by the previous government.

“That’s why this Government began work immediately to address the inheritance with tough choices on spending alongside ambitious action to drive growth.”


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hdavies15
hdavies15
13 days ago

More cobblers from official government sources aimed at softening the public up for more austerity programmes. Seems there is no limit to the duplicity of these Red Tories posturing as socialist With that huge majority it will take a lot to shift them unless the public rise up and take action, indeed several actions.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
13 days ago
Reply to  hdavies15

Smarter than the average bear, both sides of the border…@gotfooled.again

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
13 days ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

by @weworkfortheking.uk

Howie
Howie
13 days ago

Don’t forget the biggest and not mentioned liabilities, public sector pensions for, judiciary, politicians, armed forces, civil servants, police teachers etc, latest liability forecast put at £3.1tn

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