Voters go to the polls in Wales as Labour forecast historic defeat

Voting is underway in a historic Senedd election that could spell disaster for Labour.

The party has been the largest at country-wide elections in Wales for more than a century and won the most seats in the Senedd since its creation more than two decades ago.

But on Thursday, this electoral dominance could be set to collapse.

Opinion polls in Wales have consistently forecast Plaid Cymru and Reform to become the biggest parties in the Senedd.

Labour, meanwhile, is expected to be pushed into third place.

Baroness Eluned Morgan, the First Minister and leader of Welsh Labour, has tried to distance the party from UK Labour during her campaign, urging people not to use the election as a protest vote against Sir Keir Starmer.

However, others have sought to profit from frustration with the Prime Minister and UK Government, with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage suggesting the election will be viewed as a referendum on Sir Keir’s premiership.

The final YouGov poll in this election, published on Tuesday, forecast Plaid Cymru to win 43 seats in the Senedd, pulling ahead of Reform with 34 seats and Labour with 12.

A total of 49 seats is required for a majority in the Senedd and opinion polls have indicated an agreement between two or more parties could be the only viable route to government.

Plaid Cymru, which has previously been in a cooperation agreement with the government in Cardiff Bay, insists it is here to “replace” Labour and has centred its campaign around “new leadership” for Wales.

The election on Thursday will differ from previous years, with the Senedd expanding and a new proportional voting system being introduced.

There will be 16 constituencies in Wales, with each represented by six members of the Senedd, resulting in a total of 96 being elected.

Under the new system, the number of candidates elected from each party will be based on the percentage of votes the party receives, and they will be elected in order from a list compiled by their party.

While some people will have already cast their vote by post, most will be heading to their polling station between 7am and 10pm on Thursday.

Ballot papers will be counted during the daytime on Friday, with the first results expected in the early afternoon and the final declarations due in the evening.