Votes being counted in Caerphilly by-election after polls close

Voting has closed in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, marking the end of a closely fought campaign that could signal the political direction of Wales ahead of next year’s national election.

The by-election was triggered by the sudden death of Labour MS Hefin David in August, who had represented Caerphilly since 2016 and was widely respected across party lines.

His passing left vacant one of Labour’s traditional strongholds in south Wales – a seat the party has held since the Senedd was established in 1999.

Polling

But this election has been far from straightforward for Labour. Recent polling has suggested Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are set to become the two largest parties in Wales at the 2026 Senedd election, raising the stakes for all parties competing for the seat.

A Labour spokesperson paid tribute to Dr David and the campaign effort mounted by local members:

“Hefin David loved this constituency and its people. He’s been at the heart of our campaign throughout.

“This has been a tough campaign for the party for a variety of reasons, but we’re proud of what our staff and volunteers have achieved over the past six weeks and remain committed to fighting for Caerphilly and the Valleys.”

For Plaid Cymru, the contest has been led by long-serving local councillor Lindsay Whittle, who has described the campaign as “heartening” but expects the final result to be tight.

Public service cuts

“There’s not a campaign I haven’t been involved in over the last 50 years in the Rhymney Valley, and people are remembering it,” he said. “We’re the only party fighting these cuts to public services, and people are appreciating it.”

Whittle said his campaign had focused on NHS services, GP access and mental health support, and suggested that Reform UK had been Labour’s main challenger in recent weeks.

He accused Nigel Farage’s Reform party of “inundating” local voters with campaign materials but expressed confidence in Plaid’s local record.

“Reform are the biggest threat to us tonight,” he said, “but people here know me and know I’ve always fought for them.”

The by-election result, expected overnight, is being viewed as an early bellwether for next year’s Senedd election, when Welsh voters return to the polls in May 2026.

‘Historic’

Speaking to GB News at the Caerphilly by-election count, Reform UK’s head of policy Zia Yusuf described it as a “historic” day for Wales.

He said: “It is a big moment for our party, big day, and it’s going to be a big day, I think, for Wales.

“Because, what we know already, this is a seat that Labour had won every single time since it was elected in 1918 for the parliamentary seat, ever since the Senedd seat was created, Labour won every time.

“They’ve never lost an election here… We know they will lose.

“They’re almost certainly going to come in third place, it’s a catastrophe for Labour.

“The Labour Party and the Tory Party, the two old great parties that have dominated UK politics, will struggle to get even a quarter of the vote share today.

“So there’s a total and historic realignment in British politics happening in real time.”

Mr Yusuf also said turnout in the Caerphilly by-election would be a “big surprise”.

“Turnout is up, turnout is going to be a big surprise,” Mr Yusuf said.

He acknowledged there may have been some “tactical voting” in the election which could impact the result for Reform.

Mr Yusuf added: “But I’ll say this too, there’s a lot of people who did vote last night, who generally don’t vote, who are coming out to vote, which is really great.”

‘Exited and frightened’

Delyth Jewell, deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, said she feels “excited and frightened”.

She said: “I still feel so excited about the campaign that we ran, I think it’s been a really energetic campaign.

“I feel excited and frightened at the same time, and I wish there were a word for those things together, because there are two very starkly different scenarios ahead of us.

“One of them is going to unfold in the next few hours, either we will see Plaid Cymru emerging as the party that’s won this by-election or Reform, and it’s been obvious the whole time, it was one or the other.

“No matter what way this goes, it’s going to be clear to voters in Wales that the only progressive party for the future of Wales is Plaid Cymru. We are also the only party that will be able to beat Reform.

“The momentum is with us, so no matter what happens in this by-election tonight, I think people’s minds will be focused.