Wales has lost more than 20% of its bus passengers since before Covid while train reliability remains patchy

Martin Shipton

Wales has experienced the slowest post-pandemic recovery in bus passenger numbers in the UK, a Senedd committee has confirmed.

The Climate Change, Environment and Infrastructure Committee’s annual scrutiny report on Transport for Wales (TfW) shows that passenger numbers in Wales in the year to March 2024 were just 78.3% of their pre-pandemic levels compared to 89.5% for Great Britain as a whole.

The committee has recommended that TfW should work with the Welsh Government to identify the key factors contributing to the slower recovery of bus passenger numbers in Wales compared to England and Scotland. Based on this analysis, TfW should implement measures to address these issues in preparation for bus franchising, which is due to be introduced in Wales.

Capped fares

The report states: “The Cabinet Secretary [for Transport, Ken Skates] has previously suggested that while fare-paying passenger numbers have recovered, concessionary travel has not. This differs from trends in England and Scotland, where policies such as capped fares (£2 in England, rising to £3 from December 2024) and free bus travel for under-22s in Scotland have been introduced.

“When he appeared before the committee, [TfW chief executive] James Price acknowledged that the recovery of bus passenger numbers in Wales has been slow. He pointed to Wales’ historically high proportion of older bus users and suggested that the pandemic had led many to use online services, which had reduced their need to travel.

“He added that geographic and structural challenges also play a role, highlighting that Wales has fewer urban areas with large populations compared to England and Scotland, which can affect passenger usage figures. He also noted that, unlike other parts of the UK, Wales had not engaged in ‘any form of aggressive bus planning’ due to the absence of enabling legislation. He was optimistic that the bus franchising model could lead to a ‘period of sustained passenger growth’ if it led to services being more reliable, easier to use, and underpinned by a simplified fare and ticketing system.”

Bus franchising

The committee said: “We remain concerned that bus passenger numbers in Wales remain below pre-pandemic levels and have recovered more slowly than in England and Scotland. A variety of factors have been suggested. Our primary concern is that the Welsh Government and TfW need to identify the factors driving this trend and ensure they take steps to address them. This is particularly important as Wales moves towards the implementation of bus franchising.

“We welcome TfW’s work on integrated ticketing but note … that the full benefits will not be realised until bus franchising is introduced. We believe that rural and long-distance services will require careful consideration in this context to ensure equality of access wherever you live in Wales.

“We are particularly interested in the use of tap-in, tap-out payment technologies for concessionary fares and how that might be introduced in Wales.

“The transition to Corporate Joint Committees (CJCs) for Regional Transport Plans (RTPs) is a significant step, but questions remain about local authorities’ capacity to manage delivery effectively. A shortage of in-house transport planning expertise within local authorities risks undermining the delivery of RTPs. We believe that TfW’s technical support and independent evaluations will be essential to ensuring alignment with national priorities.”

Severe weather

The report states: “The frequency of severe weather events due to climate change requires an increasing focus on transport resilience. We note that TfW has developed its resilience plan and would be grateful for an update on the progress of implementing the actions in it. We also note that TfW is working with CJCs to ensure that climate resilience is reflected in RTPs, and we would be grateful for an update on progress in due course.

“Finally, flooding remains a significant issue for Welsh rail services, particularly on the North Wales Main Line and Hereford routes. TfW should work with landowners and Network Rail to develop better flood mitigation strategies in these areas.

“TfW should ensure that rural and long-distance bus services are given specific consideration in the development of integrated ticketing to ensure equality across all parts of Wales. TfW should provide an update on the progress of introducing tap-in, tap-out payment options for concessionary fares.

“The committee were deeply concerned to hear of the delays in the rollout of trains due to manufacturers not meeting agreed deadlines and believe that TfW should use all options available to them to ensure that this last part of the contract is delivered on time. Given the impact on the public purse, this should include, if necessary, asking the Cabinet Secretary for Transport to intervene.”

Rail service reliability

In terms of rail service reliability, the report states: “In November 2024, the Cabinet Secretary for Transport told the Committee that TfW had achieved significant improvements in punctuality and reliability during the first quarter of the financial year compared to the same period in the previous year. However, this improvement was followed by a decline.

Mr Price characterised TfW’s recent performance as “plateauing rather than declining” but acknowledged significant differences between the Core Valley Lines (CVL) and Wales and Cross-Border (WCB) services. While the former had remained relatively stable, the latter had been disrupted, primarily due to extreme weather. He said that recent storms had caused flooding, track washouts, power failures, and damage to infrastructure.

The chief executive said that a second aspect that had affected performance was “a slightly lower number of … new train units coming out of the maintenance facility per day than we would like to see. So, we are roughly four units short a day.” Although it had not resulted in cancellations to the extent seen in the past, it had affected service provision.

Rolling stock

He said: “It’s an area, though, that we ourselves cannot sort, and we need [rolling stock manufacturer] CAF to come to the table. In essence, what I need to do is to get CAF, who are a very competent international rolling stock provider, to provide rolling stock in Wales to the same level of excellence that they provide in their best plants around the world. That’s the journey that we are on.”

In terms of measuring performance, Mr Price suggested that it is difficult to compare the performance of frequent metro-style services on the CVL with that of rural lines with more infrequent services. He suggested performance data often masks the real world impact on passengers. He explained: “If we cancel a service, we would rarely cancel the full service, but you might see a train running fast through a number of stops to catch up – the impact of cancelling the service on the individual, me included, quite often, can be quite minor, because people are only waiting four to six minutes for the next train. That’s on Core Valleys Lines.

“If you did that approach in rural Wales, where you’ve got four services a day, you’d have a horrendous problem.”

He suggested that TfW would aim to develop tailored performance measures to reflect better the challenges affecting different service types across Wales.