Wales Office under Jo Stevens receives official rebuke for misleading claim about defence spending

Martin Shipton

Former Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens and the Wales Office she led have been rebuked by the UK Statistics Authority for making the misleading claim that the UK Government was increasing defence spending by £270bn.

In fact the figure represents the UK’s total defence budget.

A post on X by the Wales Office said: “The UK Government is increasing defence spending by £270bn over this Parliament to strengthen our national security.” The post went on to say that the then Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens had visited the Mission Systems team in Oakdale to see the role that Wales’ defence spending was playing in the uplift.

Ms Stevens was replaced as Welsh Secretary by Stephen Kinnock when Andy Burnham took over as Prime Minister.

Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge complained that the claim was inaccurate, and his complaint has now been upheld.

In a letter to him, Penny Young, the Interim Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, said: “You highlight that the outgoing Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer previously made a similar claim at a House of Commons Liaison Committee in March this year saying, ‘We have already committed to 2.5% in 2027, and we will hit that. That means that, in this Parliament, we will spend £270bn more on defence than we would otherwise have done.’

“In investigating your concerns, the Office for Statistics Regulation also noted several media articles in June from The Independent, The Guardian and Sky News, which reported: ‘An MoD spokesman said the government is providing a generational Increase in defence spending, with an extra £270bn across this Parliament.’

“We agree that it is incorrect and misleading to describe the £270bn as an increase in defence spending over the course of this Parliament, or to describe it as an extra £270bn. The £270bn represents the proposed overall spending on defence over the lifetime of the current Parliament, from 2025-26 to 2028-29.

“As part of our investigation we spoke with the Wales Office, who acknowledged the original X post to which you refer. The Wales Office has told us that the figure used was a mistake, and was amended as soon as it was noticed. On 5 June it posted instead ‘The UK government is investing £270bn in defence over this Parliament to secure our national security’, which is a more accurate description of the proposed spend. In addition, Wales Office has told us it has reviewed its press office lines in relation to this topic, and its quality assurance process for press lines, to ensure that this mistake is not replicated elsewhere.

“We also raised this issue with the Ministry of Defence (MoD). Following our intervention, the MoD has taken steps to ensure that future communications use precise and consistent language when presenting defence spending figures.

“Statisticians at the MoD have told us that analysts have spoken about the misleading wording with their Communications colleagues, to ensure accurate communications on defence spending are used going forward. The MOD Communications team has in turn communicated this message to wider colleagues who have been working on the release of the Defence Investment Plan, to ensure that misleading lines are not used again.

“We consider that the actions taken by Wales Office and MOD should reduce the risk of these misleading statements being used in future public debate. Please do contact us again if you see continued instances of misuse, or if you have other concerns.”

‘Caught out’

Shadow Wales Secretary Mims Davies MP said: “Labour has been caught out once again for making misleading claims about defence spending. The UK Statistics Authority has now made clear that the way these figures were presented was completely incorrect, raising serious questions about the Government’s credibility on an issue as important as national security.

“At a time of growing global instability, the public deserves honesty and transparency about our defence budget. Labour ministers and civil servants in the Wales Office should be setting out the facts, not presenting figures in a way that risks misleading people.

“The new Prime Minister now needs to provide a clear timetable for delivering the commitment to spend 3% of GDP on defence and explain how it will be funded.”

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