Wales’s dependence on rest of UK for electricity grows

Wales risks becoming increasingly reliant on imported energy unless it accelerates the rollout of renewable power, according to a new analysis.

Researchers warn that slower progress on renewables compared with other parts of the UK could leave Wales more exposed to volatile gas prices and rising household energy bills.

The findings come as global gas prices have surged to a three-year high amid conflict in Iran, with analysts predicting average UK energy bills could rise by almost £300 when the price cap is updated in July 2026.

The Welsh Government has set a target for Wales to meet 100% of its electricity demand from renewable sources by 2035.

While renewable generation has grown significantly in recent years and now meets around a third of demand, the pace of expansion has slowed since 2019.

Experts say Wales’s pipeline of renewable energy projects is smaller and less advanced than in England and Scotland, raising concerns that it could fall behind.

At the same time, demand for electricity is expected to increase sharply, potentially doubling by 2050 as homes and industries switch to electric power.

Projections suggest that without faster growth in renewables, the share of electricity generated from clean sources could decline, increasing reliance on gas. Gas already accounts for around 58% of Wales’s power generation, the highest proportion of any UK nation.

Because gas sets the price of electricity for most of the time in the UK, this reliance leaves consumers vulnerable to international price shocks.

Recent geopolitical tensions have heightened those risks.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the UK is particularly exposed to global energy market instability due to its dependence on gas-fired generation.

Polling carried out on behalf of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that energy security is a growing concern among Welsh voters.

Seven in ten respondents said they were worried about reliance on energy imports from the United States, while two-thirds expressed concern about dependence on energy from overseas more broadly.

The United States has become the UK’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, accounting for more than two-thirds of imports in recent years.

Analysts and energy experts have repeatedly said that expanding renewable energy capacity is key to reducing reliance on gas and protecting consumers from price volatility. Wind generation in particular has been shown to significantly lower wholesale electricity costs.

Senedd election

Laura Dunn, senior associate at the ECIU, said concerns about energy prices are likely to play a major role in the upcoming Senedd election.

“The cost-of-living is voters’ number one priority heading into the Senedd elections, with growing fears of a repeat of the energy crisis which followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” she said.

“In an increasingly uncertain world, the best way to offer Welsh households and industry the long-term certainty they need is by untethering the cost of electricity from unstable international gas markets.

“Wales has seen significant progress in rolling out new renewables and, across the UK, renewables are already helping to squeeze gas off the grid.

“With demand for electricity set to grow as homes and industry electrify, more action is urgently needed to speed up the pace at which new renewables are coming online if the Welsh government is to meet its clean energy targets and prevent Wales becoming more dependent on imported electricity.”

The report concludes that without a renewed push to expand renewable capacity, Wales could face higher costs and increased energy insecurity in the years ahead.