Welsh farmers face second winter of feed shortages as drought hits grass growth

Mark Mansfield

Welsh livestock farmers are facing mounting pressure from the drought as new analysis shows grass growth has fallen sharply during the summer.

The warning comes after the whole of Wales was placed in drought status following an exceptionally dry July, with farmers in Denbighshire and Ceredigion describing the impact on their businesses.

As of July 27, Wales had received just 8% of its long-term average rainfall for the month, putting the country on course for its driest July since records began around 190 years ago.

Analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) of Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board data found grass growth was 46% below the 2019-24 average in the week ending July 31.

Across the latest three weeks of available data, growth was 43% below average.

Denbighshire farmer Sam Kenyon said: “I’m feeding sheep in July, which has been unheard-of for this place, and there’ll be no second cut of forage to sell in order to help balance the expense.

“Rotational grazing has thankfully bought me four to six weeks more grazing than if I had set stocked.”

Rhodri Lloyd-Williams, a farmer in north Ceredigion, said: “We’re massively down on silage because the grass hasn’t grown.

“The boreholes we’ve put in have helped enormously in allowing us to rotationally graze the cattle, and the trees we’ve planted are giving the stock shade they didn’t used to have.”

Drought

Natural Resources Wales declared the whole of Wales to be in drought at the end of July following a rapid deterioration in conditions.

Parts of north Wales, the Upper Severn and south-east Wales were initially moved into “Prolonged Dry Weather” status on July 16.

North Wales and the Upper Severn were formally moved into drought a week later before the classification was extended to the rest of the country on July 30.

Some catchments in Gwynedd, Clwyd and the Upper Severn received less than 2% of their expected July rainfall, while exceptionally low river levels have been recorded in parts of Wales.

The dry July followed a below-average April to June period, during which Wales received around 86% of its usual rainfall.

The ECIU analysis found grass growth had remained close to normal during the spring and early summer before deteriorating rapidly in July.

Its projections suggest the 2026 grass-growing season could finish at between 77% and 86% of the recent average, with a central estimate of 81%.

That would represent a shortfall of around 2,200kg of dry matter per hectare – equivalent to roughly four months of feed for one dairy cow for every hectare of grassland.

The timing is significant because grass growth naturally declines from late summer, leaving less opportunity to recover the shortfall before winter.

Pressure

Tom Cantillon, senior analyst for carbon and land at ECIU, said: “Grass is the cheapest feed British livestock farmers have, and this summer it has fallen to half its normal rate.

“Two short forage years back-to-back is a different proposition to one. Farmers went into this summer carrying the costs of last year’s drought, and this will exacerbate the pressures they face.

“What we are looking at is not a bad week or a difficult month, but a structural squeeze on the foundation of grass-fed farming in this country.”

Even under ECIU’s most optimistic projection, in which grass growth returns to normal for the remainder of the season, total growth would finish at 86% of average.

That compares with 87% during the drought-affected 2025 season, raising the prospect of livestock farmers entering a second consecutive winter with reduced forage supplies.

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