Welsh indyref ‘absolutely could happen in our lifetime’, Plaid Cymru leader says
A referendum on Welsh independence could “absolutely” be held within “our lifetime”, Plaid Cymru’s leader has said.
Rhun ap Iorwerth did not shy away from suggesting his party may be the leading political force in Wales following a poll which predicts Plaid will have the largest vote share in the 2026 Senedd elections.
Plaid is projected to be the largest party in the Senedd following the outcome of the election, with around 30% of votes and 35 seats in the Siambr, according to a YouGov poll published on Tuesday.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would be the second largest party, with 25% of votes, according to the poll.
The Plaid leader ruled out holding a referendum on Wales leaving the UK in the first term of a Plaid-led Welsh government, when speaking to the BBC’s Walescast this week.
He has previously declined to put a timeline on a referendum, after Plaid’s last leader Adam Price promised such a vote within five years.
But Mr ap Iorwerth told the PA news agency a referendum could form part of a Plaid government’s platform for the future, once it has built trust with the Welsh electorate.
“Within our lifetime”
“The key thing is it’s up to the people of Wales. And I’ve many times said that I would have independence tomorrow, but it’s not what I think that matters,” Mr ap Iorwerth told PA.
“It’s what the people of Wales believe, and I absolutely think we can have that referendum and set us off on a different direction as a country within our lifetime,” he added.
Should Plaid pursue such a referendum in future, it would be likely to need support from other parties in Cardiff Bay and at Westminster, which is unlikely to be forthcoming.
Plaid would focus on “deep problems within the NHS in Wales”, as well as education, economic stagnation and poverty, should it be the party that leads the next Welsh government, Mr ap Iorwerth said.
Proportional representation
The next Senedd election will see Welsh voters use a new proportional system to choose their representatives.
Some 49 seats will be required for an outright majority, with the Senedd being expanded to 96 members.
The previous system had an “in-built bias towards Labour”, the Plaid leader said.
Mr ap Iorwerth added: “That changes with the new electoral system that we have in Wales, and it’s a genuine case that wherever people are in Wales, the votes that they cast will contribute towards who can be leading that government next year, Plaid Cymru is putting itself forward as the party to lead that government.
“And if people want that, they can have it with me as first minister, the first non-Labour first minister, setting a different direction for governments in Wales.”
Parties in Wales are likely to have to co-operate following the poll, the Plaid leader admitted, but he continued to rule out a “formal relationship” with Mr Farage’s Reform UK.
Mr ap Iorwerth added: “We have two conservative parties in Wales now: the Conservative Party, and the Tories on steroids that Reform are: the pro-Thatcher, the pro-Liz Truss, the pro-Trump political party that works against the interests of workers, that works against the interests of businesses in Wales.
“I just don’t think that’s the politics that is in the interests of Wales.”
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We must stop with the default assumption that only Westminster can give permission for a referendum.
Our constitutional situation is different to Scotland’s.
Wales did not voluntarily join in union with England, it was annexed following military conquest.
The Senedd should hold the legal and moral right here.
I know it’s a taboo to talk about this, but it is fact and these technicalities make our situation somewhat different to Scotland.
It’s worth exploring and not putting all our eggs in a basket that could be dictated by a Nigel Farage government down the line.
I’m sorry to say, and with the greatest respect, the key bit of legislation is the 2017 Wales Act which states “the union of the nations of Wales and England” and “the UK Parliament” are reserved powers that the Senedd can’t legislate on. Plus the supreme court ruling can’t simply be ignored.
You have to question why plaid promised a referendum at the last senedd election, when we knew they were never going to be the largest party, but now they can potentially be the larger party, they shy away from it!
However, under the United Nations charter – to which the UK is a signatory – all nations have a right to independence.
International law should supersede domestic law on a situation like this, ie Wales wants a referendum but Westminster tries to block it.
I think it should be explored personally, reading the UN charter the UK would have to argue that Wales is a former colony – as it distinguishes between colonies and annexed nations. It’s not a straightforward avenue but shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand, is more what I’m arguing.
Quote: International law should supersede domestic law on a situation like this, ie Wales wants a referendum but Westminster tries to block it. I’m afraid that’s not true, There is no higher authority than a Sovereign state. International institutions such as the EU, UN etc do not have power over them, instead are voluntary organisations which states could leave at any time. International law is merely a set of normative principles that states normally abide by, but are not legally obligated to. If they were then Bush, Blair, Putin, and Netanyahu would be on trial for war crimes. Wales is… Read more »
It’s highly unlikely Wales would be considered a ‘colony’ or no governing self territory. As a point, ‘international law’ doesn’t supersede domestic law
You have a point; I can’t see any major political party in the majority unionist Westminster parliament ever ‘unreserving’ on this issue – least of all while there’s the present degree of post-Brexit rule Britannia jingoism echoing around England in particular. But I don’t think that it matters, given that we’re yet to see the cause of independence seizing the hearts and minds of sufficient numbers of Welsh voters to really forge a widespread desire for independence. OK, we’re at the stage when the idea’s much less readily dismissed with incredulity and utter scepticism than was the case fifty years… Read more »
If you believe that Wales has been colonised there is the United Nations on Decolonisation as a route for Independence.. Since the birth of the United Nations, more than 80 former colonies comprising some 750 million people have gained independence. At present, 17 Non-Self-Governing Territories (NSGTs) across the globe remain on the list of Non-Self-Governing Territories, home to nearly 2 million people. Thus, the process of decolonization is not complete. Completing this mandate will require a continuing dialogue among the administering Powers, the Special Committee on the Situation with regard to the Implementation of the Declaration on the Granting of… Read more »
As a Scot can I say first of all how exciting the situation in Wales has become. It is fantastic to see the rise of self determination in polls. I hope that both our nations can finally free ourselves from this UK prison and express our identity and politics on the world stage. Secondly, I’d point out that Scots didn’t voluntarily join with England, there were riots at the time. To quote Burns ‘we were bought and sold for English gold, such a parcel of rogues in a nation’s. A message that both our movements must still heed to this… Read more »
There are two, connected issue here that worry me. The first is readiness. I am no fan of ap Iorwerth or Plaid Cymru but if the party really is in the majority next year and whether or not it governs alone or in some form of cooperation, it must have the detailed, costed and realistic policies ready beforehand Making up policies after the election will be too late and will damage the party from day one. Over to ap Iorwerth. The second is very worrying. Polls and people are fickle and a lot can happen in twelve months – just… Read more »
Agreed. Plaid’s Achilles heel is credible financial plans. We always hear demands to “invest” in this, that and the other; but hardly ever how it’s going to be paid for. I suspect we won’t either. As for the polls, one of the few certainties is a unionist majority next May and ap Iorwerth has booted independence into the long grass anyhow no matter how many marches there are up and down Barry high street or elsewhere.
You have touched on something I should have said in my original contribution. The movement for independence must NOT be synonymous with Plaid Cymru, the party’s support – as you point out – is at best questionable. The wider movement has a far more important (and genuine) role – Yes Cymru, Gwlad, Neil McCavoy’s party, Undod, Cymdeithas, members of the Labour Party and Trade Unions, there are even Tories, religious organisations, voluntary organisations et al. Plaid Cymru is happy to pretend just as long as it sees votes. If it succeeded in being the face of independence and is then… Read more »
Again, in general at least, I agree. But I wonder whether Plaid being synonymous with independence is unavoidable? Is it not the lens through which the debate is seen by most people ie those who need to be convinced. I agree that trade unions and wider civic institutions have an important role to play; but in political party terms, Plaid is the only game in town? The others are firmly unionist even if some individual members are Indy curious at least. Gwlad, Propel etc are irrelevant as they have no real support as I said in other posts (much to… Read more »
The question of whether or not Wales becomes independent depends on what happens in Scotland. While support for independence is on the increase there are many factors that would deter people from voting Yes in a referendum. The first is the issue of currency, and the second is the issue of open borders with England. Scotland on the other hand will have some bargaining power. They have natural resources, such as the North Sea oil, a huge military presence including Trident and is of strategic importance within NATO (assuming it survives Trump). They may be able to negotiate a deal… Read more »
Again the hesitancy. ‘ It will up to the people ‘ A largely uninformed people at present and that’s his job, it’s always been his job, to inform the people as to the benefits of Independence. In that, through hesitancy, he has so far failed. Get the majority public onside and politicians will follow.
What do we want? Independence! When do we want it? NOW! Usual Plaid Cymru lack of commitment to independence! Where is Wales Alex Salmond?
The UK began to break up decades ago. We just aren’t quite at the endpoint. That path was set in motion as soon as deindustrialisation set in and London was the peg that the economy was hung from. People really ought to read two books in order to understand the UK today. There are many of course but these two will enlighten. The first is Empireland by Sathnam Sanghera. The second in The Break-up of Britain by Tom Nairn. The UK and its territories is the rump British Empire. Shorn of territories and industry it retains a core-periphery economy, centralized… Read more »
The breakup began when Whitehall starved a million citizens to death just to avoid “stifling private enterprise”.
Yes, that was the “outer empire”. Now the “inner empire” is going the way of the dodo.
Rhun should concentrate on attacking the Labour Party for declaring war on the disabled…
The bringing down of Mr and Mrs Bumble and Liz Kendal for the despicable apologies for human beings they are consumed by their unadulterated sadism must be his and our crusade…
Enough is enough, the whole country should stand and fight, these are our kith and kin for God’s sake…
Deal with reform or you ain’t going anywhere for a few decades after they wreck the place. Same for the other sensible parties.