Welsh Labour claim Senedd race remains wide open

Nation.Cymru staff

Welsh Labour’s deputy leader has insisted the Senedd election remains wide open, despite a new poll suggesting Plaid Cymru is on course to emerge as the largest party.

Speaking ahead of Thursday’s vote, Huw Irranca-Davies said the contest should not be seen as a straight fight between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

He told the ITV’s Sharp End programme that while the latest polling published on Tuesday would be “disappointing” for Labour, it pointed to a tightly contested race.

“The polling that we’ve had tonight would be disappointing for Labour, you can’t take away from it,” he said.

“But what it also shows is there are really narrow margins, particularly for that fifth and sixth seat, and that is where a lot of parties can make a difference, so it’s not a two-horse race.”

The comments come after a poll for ITV Cymru Wales put Plaid on 33% of the vote, four points ahead of Reform UK on 29%, two days before voters go to the polls.

Using MRP modelling under the new 96-seat system, Plaid is projected to win 43 seats, compared to 34 for Reform.

Labour is forecast to take 12 seats, with the Conservatives on four, the Greens on two, and the Liberal Democrats on one.

While Plaid would fall short of an outright majority, the figures point to a potential path to government.

Analysts cautioned that relatively small shifts in vote share could still have a significant impact on seat totals.

Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan argued the figures showed a clear contest between the two parties in many areas.

“It is very much a two-horse race between Reform and Plaid Cymru for many of those six seats,” she said, warning of what she described as a “risk” of Reform emerging as the largest party.

Sentiment

A spokesperson for Reform UK, James Evans, questioned whether the poll reflected sentiment on the ground.

“What we’re hearing on the doorstep right across Wales isn’t reflected in that poll,” he said.

He added that the party was attracting support from voters opposed to policies associated with Plaid Cymru and potential coalition partners.

The Welsh Conservatives also sought to position themselves as influential in a likely fragmented Senedd. Tom Giffard said no party was expected to secure a majority.

“If you vote Conservative and you are a Conservative, you’ll get Conservative representation,” he said.

“No party’s going to win a majority.”

The poll suggests the Green Party is in fifth place on 8%, which could translate into two seats under the current projections.

Closely contested

Green Party representative Philip Davies said relatively small increases in support could make a difference in closely contested constituencies.

“Small wins in voting percentages for the Green Party in specific seats will mean we win those sixth seats instead of Reform,” he said.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats are polling at 6%, which could be enough to return leader Jane Dodds in one seat.

Party representative Tim Sly said the party’s campaign had been focused on a small number of target constituencies.

“Our expectation is that we will make gains and we will be well up on the one seat that’s predicted,” he said, adding that polling had previously underestimated Liberal Democrat performance in other elections.