Welsh Labour faces ‘disastrous outlook’ as Senedd election battle intensifies

Welsh Labour is facing a “disastrous outlook” ahead of May’s Senedd election, with new polling and expert analysis pointing to the possible end of more than a century of political dominance in Wales.

The party, which has led Wales since the Senedd was established in 1999 and has won every national election in Wales for over 100 years, is now at risk of being pushed into third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

With just weeks to go until polling day on May 7, the contest to form the next Welsh Government is increasingly being framed as a two-horse race — a dramatic shift in the country’s political landscape.

Professor Laura McAllister, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said the era of an “all-conquering” Welsh Labour Party appears to be coming to an end.

She said: “Labour’s won every national election in Wales for more than a century. It’s one of the most successful political outfits anywhere in the world.

“But all the signs are that this looks like it’s coming to an end.”

A recent YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales suggests Labour could win just 12 seats in the expanded 96-member Senedd — with around 13% of the vote — placing it well behind both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

The findings point to a historic realignment in Welsh politics, with Labour potentially losing ground across large parts of the country and even facing the possibility of losing the First Minister’s own seat.

Professor McAllister said Labour’s difficulties stem from a combination of factors, including dissatisfaction with the UK Labour Government led by Keir Starmer and growing frustration with public services in Wales after decades of Labour rule.

“It’s a double pincer,” she said. “Labour has been in power so long in Wales, and the quality of public services are really agitating for change.”

She added that the implications would be significant both politically and culturally.

“Keir Starmer could become the first Labour leader to lose Wales, and that’s historically significant. Equally, Eluned Morgan could be the first First Minister to lose an election in the devolved era — and potentially her own seat.”

Proportional electoral system

The election will also be the first held under Wales’ new proportional electoral system, with 96 Members of the Senedd elected across 16 constituencies.

Under the new system, parties are allocated seats based on their share of the vote, making it far harder for any one party to secure an outright majority.

Professor McAllister said this means coalition-building will be essential after the election.

While Reform UK’s options may be limited to working with the Conservatives, she said Plaid Cymru would have a broader range of potential partners.

“There are far more options on the left for coalitions and deals,” she said, pointing to possible arrangements involving the Greens, Liberal Democrats, or even Labour itself.

Despite the bleak outlook, Labour insists it is still fighting to retain power.

But with time running out before polling day, Professor McAllister warned that a turnaround may be difficult.

“It’s a pretty disastrous outlook for Welsh Labour unless something turns around,” she said.

“And quite frankly, we’re running out of time for anything to change quickly now.”