Welsh Labour MS Alun Davies on what his party must do after ‘worst defeat in 100 years’

Martin Shipton

Labour’s defeat in Caerphilly was arguably its worst in a century and the party will only recover if it undergoes real change to its organisation and substance, according to a Welsh Labour MS.

In a brutally honest appraisal sent to party members in his home constituency of Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney on October 31, Alun Davies writes: “Following last week’s by-election I thought it may be useful if I wrote to everyone outlining how I see the defeat and how we may move forward ahead of the Senedd election. For me this defeat has to be a catalyst for real change. Change in policy but also a change in how we approach our politics. If we achieve this change then we can still turn last week’s defeat into a victory next May.

“The by-election was called in the most difficult of circumstances. Hefin was never far from our thoughts as we worked to get out the vote last Thursday. We need to thank Richard Tunnicliffe who was a superb candidate and did everything that was asked of him. But in reality we had known that the seat was lost for some weeks. And that reality needs to be our starting point.

“The loss of Caerphilly was probably the worst result for Labour in the last century. We not only lost the seat but we came third with a vote share reduced to 11%. I cannot think of a worse result in Wales. In understanding why we lost we need to move beyond excuses.

“We cannot continue to pretend that we lost because of a rogue opinion poll or that our message needs to be sharper or that changing our social media strategy or knocking more doors will reverse this trend. This was a fundamental failure of organisation and politics. We need real change and we need substance.

“It’s probably fair to say that Westminster issues dominated much of the campaign. The most frequent response from people was ‘everything is a mess’. The negative nature of much of our campaign made absolutely no impact. People may not believe in Reform’s message or independence but they also thought: ‘It can’t get any worse’ and:’You lot need a kick’.

“So we certainly need to begin with an urgent inquiry into the conduct of the campaign, its management, the tone, the organisation of the campaign, learning lessons and not repeating the same mistakes in the future. As the only incumbent member in the linked constituency of Blaenau Gwent, Rhymney and Caerphilly I was not asked my views or consulted on any aspect of this campaign. This was completely unacceptable – but we were not able to motivate our members to campaign either and we need to understand why this happened.

“But it is already clear to me that we need the structure of our party to reflect our political structures. The rule book needs to be devolved with control over Welsh Labour resting with the political leadership in Wales. And this needs to lead to a change in our politics. I welcome Keir Starmer’s recognition that more needs to be delivered in Wales. But again this must mean real substance and not more rhetoric. We know that we are successful when we are Welsh Labour. With an equal emphasis on Welsh and Labour.
“This means that we need to be fighting harder for Wales. We are the party of devolution and we need to do more than deliver rebranded Tory policy.

“This means Wales being a full and equal part of the UK – with the same rights and powers already enjoyed by England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The continued underfunding of our rail network is a standing disgrace. We need the full devolution of rail infrastructure – on the same basis as Scotland and Northern Ireland.

“If the Scots can control the Crown Estate then why not Wales? It is a scandal that there has been no review of the Barnett Formula. It works well for Scotland; in Northern Ireland where it did not work, a needs-based formula has been put in its place. But what about Wales? We all know that neither Northern Ireland or Scotland would be treated this way.

Justice system

He continues: “Finally, it is no longer acceptable that Wales cannot control its own justice system – again unlike England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Gordon Brown recognised that all of these issues reflect our basic Labour values of fairness and social justice – fairness across the union and fairness across our different communities – in his report two years ago. It needs to be delivered.

“And all of this is directly important to Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney. It means fair funding based on our needs and not simply a headcount. It means investment in our economy and public services. It means a greater focus on social justice – in short all those things which should come naturally to Labour.

“Removing winter fuel payments was also an affront to these values. This is now an emblematic error which is used to describe everything that people perceive to be wrong with the UK Government’s policies and priorities – uncaring about its impact on our constituency where people are older and poorer than the average. People will always remember those who hurt them. But the two-child policy and addressing the fundamentals of poverty mean we need to refocus our social and economic policies to support the poorest and most vulnerable people.

“At the same time this focus on our core Labour values needs to drive the Welsh Government as well. Eluned Morgan spoke in the spring on her vision of a ‘Red Welsh Way’, but this was entirely absent from the Caerphilly campaign. As was any defence of our record in government. Why was this? What does the Red Welsh Way mean for the delivery of policy? In education, the economy or health?

“We did not defend our nation of sanctuary policy and we allowed Reform to set the agenda on immigration. For too long our policy, tone and language on immigration have probably validated the claims made by Reform. The valleys were built by immigration. We have welcomed people from across the world with open arms. For us diversity is a strength. We are not an island of strangers and neither do we dehumanise refugees. I was pleased to see Reform defeated with nearly two thirds of voters supporting progressive parties. Labour needs to learn these lessons.

“I believe that we can pick up the pieces and work together to create a new consensus to win again in May. My commitment is to lead a campaign in this constituency over the coming months which will deliver a renewed mandate for our Welsh Labour government. I will be in touch with branches in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney over the coming weeks to discuss the structure and shape of the campaign. I have already been in contact with the officers of the Caerphilly CLP [Constituency Labour Party] and I hope to meet them again in the next month or so to agree a structure for our work up to next May.”

Labour candidate Richard Tunnicliffe’s election agent was Joe Lock, the general secretary of Welsh Labour. We invited him to respond to Mr Davies’ comments, but he did not do so.