Welsh Labour punished at polls over NHS and economy, report finds

Nation.Cymru staff

Welsh Labour lost voters who felt it had failed to deliver on the NHS, the economy and the cost of living, an independent review of the party’s Senedd election defeat has found.

The review, published at Welsh Labour’s conference in Llandudno on Saturday, urges the party to win back younger, progressive voters and set out where it is prepared to differ from UK Labour.

Labour finished third in May’s election with nine seats and 11% of the vote. Plaid Cymru took office after finishing ahead of Reform UK, while Labour’s then leader and first minister, Eluned Morgan, lost her seat.

The review, commissioned by Welsh Labour and led by Professor Anand Menon, drew on polling, interviews with people involved in the campaign, submissions from party members and an analysis of past election results.

It found that only 26% of voters who had backed Labour in the 2021 Senedd election or the 2024 general election did so again in May. Some 34% switched to Plaid Cymru and 11% went to Reform UK.

The report traced the result to a gradual loss of support among younger and more progressive voters. Those who moved away were more likely than those who stayed with Labour to be women, to have lower incomes and to identify as Welsh.

Plaid Cymru’s victory in the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025 helped convince voters that the Senedd election was a contest between Plaid and Reform. Labour’s campaign was also hampered by falling volunteer numbers, late candidate selections and a cautious approach to digital campaigning.

The review identified the unpopularity of the UK Labour government under Keir Starmer as a factor. Among voters who switched away from Labour, 39% said they were dissatisfied with both Labour governments, compared with 29% who blamed the UK government alone.

Devolved powers

The report urges Welsh Labour to put the NHS, living costs and the economy at the centre of its offer and to seek further devolved powers where they could improve those priorities. It also recommends selecting candidates earlier and doing more to introduce party leader Ken Skates to voters.

Nearly three-quarters of former Labour voters who switched parties in May did not rule out backing Labour again. The review warned that the longer they stayed with another party, the harder they would be to win back. Among all Welsh adults, 46% would consider voting for the party, polling found.

In the report’s foreword, Skates said: “May’s election was a profound defeat for Welsh Labour. Behind the result were people who had placed their trust in us, sometimes over generations, and who no longer believed we were offering the change they needed. We must listen to that judgement with humility and respond with purpose.”