News

Welsh population declines for the first time since 2015

29 Jul 2026 4 minute read

Martin Shipton

The population of Wales has decreased for the first time since 2015, according to official UK Government figures released by the Office for National Statistics.

Between mid-2024 and mid-2025, the number of people living in Wales decreased by 2,800 (-0.1%) to 3,175,200.

For Wales, the largest contributor to the decrease in population was natural change (births minus deaths).

International migration and internal migration both added to the population of Wales in mid-2025, but only partially offset the decrease in population from natural change.

The median (average) age in Wales is higher than in England. Over the last decade, the median age has increased by similar amounts in both countries, reaching 40.6 years in England, and 43.2 years in Wales, in mid-2025.

The number of people aged 65 years and over in England increased by 216,200 (2.0%) in the year to mid-2025, accounting for 19.1% of the total population, compared with 16.4% in mid-2011.

The number of people aged 65 years and over in Wales increased by 10,800 (1.6%) in the year to mid-2025, accounting for 22.2% of the total population, compared with 18.5% of the population in mid-2011.

The number of people aged 16 to 64 years increased in England by 104,600 (0.3%), and decreased in Wales by 4,800 (0.2%), in the year to mid-2025.

This age group represented 63.0% of the population in England, and 61.0% of the population in Wales, in the year to mid-2025.

The number of people aged 15 years and under decreased in both countries, by 93,200 (0.9%) in England, and by 8,700 (1.6%) in Wales.

Children made up 17.9% of the population in England, and 16.5% of the population in Wales, in the year to mid-2025.

Dependency ratios are used to inform government financial planning. The old-age-dependency ratio (OADR) is the number of people of pensionable age for every 1,000 people of working age.

In the year to mid-2025, the OADR was 283 for England and Wales overall. For England, the OADR was 280, and for Wales, it was 336.

In Wales, there were an estimated 1.62 million females and 1.55 million males, in the year to mid-2025. There was a small decrease in the total population of Wales by 2,800 compared with the previous year, an estimated decrease of 1,000 females and 1,800 males. The changes in Wales were largely influenced by:

* net international migration, where there were more females than males migrating from other countries in the UK, but fewer females than males migrating from outside of the UK

* deaths, which were 9,200 higher than births, with natural change (births minus deaths) being approximately the same for both males and females, at negative 4,600.

Fewer births

In a commentary on the figures, Chief Statistician Stephanie Howarth wrote: “In Wales, the reason for the reduction in population estimates is that there are fewer births than deaths, and because fewer people have moved to Wales from outside the United Kingdom (the UK) than in previous years. Until now, the number of people moving to Wales had been greater than the gap between the number of deaths and births. In the latest estimates, this is no longer the case.

“We don’t yet know if this slight drop in population will continue in the coming years. The ONS plans to publish 2026 population estimates for England and Wales next summer. What we do know, however, is that the number of births in 2025 has shown a continued decline (the ONS) , and the number of deaths is also expected to remain relatively high as the increasing number born following the second world war reach older ages. The latest provisional estimates of long-term international migration for 2025 also show a continued decline in net international migration for the UK (the ONS) .

“Alongside these population estimates, the ONS and Welsh Government publish population projections. Projections are not predictions of what exactly will happen. They show the potential size and structure of the future population if recent trends continue, using assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The ONS publishes national population projections for Wales and other UK countries, and we publish population projections for local authorities and national parks.

“Our latest set of local authority projections were published in November last year, and were generally based on trends up to 2022. Since then, the ONS has published its latest national population projections , which are based on trends up to 2024. This means they take into account more recent reductions in net migration and the number of births. These suggested that the Welsh population projections decrease from 2036.”

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