Welsh Tories see slump in Westminster polling numbers – projected to lose Ynys Môn
The Tories have seen a slump in their polling for Westminster in the latest YouGov Welsh Barometer Poll, down five points on their standing in May.
According to Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University, only one seat would change hands under present boundaries – Ynys Môn. That is also the only seat that will stay intact when Wales’ seats are cut from 40 to 32 in time for the next General Election.
Conservatives’ support has fallen from 36 to 32% according to the ITV/Cardiff University poll. They also won 36% of the vote at the 2019 General Election.
Labour stay level on 37% of the vote at Westminster, with Plaid Cymru up one to 15%.
At the Senedd constituency level, the Conservatives are down two points from 29 to 27%, Labour are up one point from 36 to 37%, and Plaid Cymru are down one from 20 to 19%.
On the regional list, however, the Conservatives are up one point from 25 to 26%, Labour up two from 31 to 33%, and Plaid Cymru down two from 21 to 19%. All the Senedd numbers are within the margin of error of May’s polling.
All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 1,071 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 13th – 16th September 2021. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).