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Welsh voters don’t want Scots to have independence referendum, says new poll

12 Jul 2021 2 minutes Read
The flags of Wales, Scotland, England and the UK. Picture by Joowwww.

Voters in Wales don’t want Scotland to have an independence referendum, according to a new poll.

The latest UK-wide Panelbase poll asked 3891 people across Britain whether there should be another referendum in the next few years.

It found that 56% of voters in England believe there should not be another referendum in the next few years, and in Wales the figure is even higher at 61%. However, the Welsh sample size was low at 195.

According to the survey, carried out on behalf of The Sunday Times, 58% of voters in Wales want Scotland to stay in the UK, while 14% it to leave and 28% are unsure or don’t mind.

In England, 54% want Scotland to remain in the UK, while 17% want it to leave and 29% don’t know or don’t mind.

The survey conducted between June 18 and July 2, comes amid a shake-up of the UK government’s team working to stop the breakup of the union. Lord McInnes of Kilwinning is stepping down as director of the Scottish Conservatives to become a special adviser to Boris Johnson on the union.

‘Turbulent’ 

This follows a turbulent time in Union Unit that was tasked with preventing the breakup of the UK. It suffered a series of alleged rows and leaks.

It has previously been reported that Oliver Lewis, who is an ally of Boris Johnson’s controversial former advisor Dominic Cummings, left because he felt his position was being made “untenable” by others in No 10.

He worked with Boris Johnson on Vote Leave, his leadership campaign and helped him strike the Brexit deal with the EU. It is claimed that the UK Prime Minister called Lewis into office and “bo***cked him” over alleged leaks, which he denied.

A Cabinet committee made up of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Welsh Secretary Simon Hart, Scottish Secretary Alistair Jack, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis and other Cabinet members has since been created.

Downing Street has said that “No 10 officials continue to work in the Union unit”, and that the new committee “builds on top of the already existing structures that we have in place”.

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Cai Wogan Jones
Cai Wogan Jones
3 months ago

Totally irrelevant polling question. The right to self-determination is enshrined in the UN Charter.

Quornby
Quornby
3 months ago

For Hart see Johnson.

Shan Morgain
3 months ago

However, the Welsh sample size was low at 195. Of these 61% were against a Scots poll. That means 118 people said this. Significant? Not.

Kerry Davies
Kerry Davies
3 months ago
Reply to  Shan Morgain

The sample is pretty useless as voters in Wales are not Welsh voters. The average across Wales is that 22% of residents were born in England and for places like Powys and Monmouthshire that can be over 44%.

Every single one of the 195 could well be “English”.

Morris Dean
Morris Dean
3 months ago
Reply to  Kerry Davies

Many of the most active and vigorous supporters of indywales I know are English so I would steer away from this line of argument

Shan Morgain
3 months ago

 a turbulent time in Union Unit that was tasked with preventing the breakup of the UK. It suffered a series of alleged rows and leaks. Jolly dee.

Stephen Owen
Stephen Owen
3 months ago
Reply to  Shan Morgain

Thinking of the members of the unit I would say they have no idea how to “save” it.

Alan Reilly
Alan Reilly
3 months ago

Scotland’s decision, not Wales’. Welsh voters have no business in what is exclusively a choice for Scottish voters. And viceversa.

Barbara Frances
3 months ago
Reply to  Alan Reilly

This is total propergander, I’m Welsh and I don’t believe there has been no ligitement vote in Wales . If Scotland wants independence then they should have the right to do so without interference from the rest of the UK.

Lolly Mountjoy
Lolly Mountjoy
3 months ago

Irrelevant Poll
Up to Scotland what they do about independence as it is to Welsh People about Wales
118 people shocking not

Barbara Frances
3 months ago
Reply to  Lolly Mountjoy

Lolly. This statement is journalist stirring reporting. to be honest Wales would back Scotland if they want to leave the UK. So don’t take a pop at the Welsh.🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Dewi Davies
Dewi Davies
3 months ago

Is this people living in Wales or actual Welsh voters. Big difference. Same as the Brexit vote. Its nothing to do with anyone other than the Scots themselves.

Charles Evans
Charles Evans
3 months ago
Reply to  Dewi Davies

Please, tell us what you mean by “actual Welsh voters”. Who meets your definition of “Welsh”?

Roderich Heier
Roderich Heier
3 months ago
Reply to  Charles Evans

I should imagine that would be anyone who identifies as Welsh.

Erisian
Erisian
3 months ago
Reply to  Roderich Heier

Possibly not a good very definition as Andrew RT Davies ‘self identifies’ as Welsh, but his actions tell a very different story

Dewi Davies
Dewi Davies
3 months ago
Reply to  Charles Evans

People that are Welsh not people that just live here. Easy I would have thought.

Dewi Davies
Dewi Davies
3 months ago
Reply to  Dewi Davies

Let me put it this way then. I’m Welsh. Born raised and live here. I’ve no affiliation with Scotland at all but suddenly I decide to buy a 2nd property there. Would that be justification for allowing me a vote on a referendum just because I now have a postal address there? I think not but it happens here. Any one who wants to classify themselves as Welsh and is willing to help us not hinder us is more than welcome in my eyes but don’t expect me to roll out a welcome mat for people who’s only objective is… Read more »

CJPh
CJPh
3 months ago

Another footnote in the upcoming book series “The Problems with Polling: Parts I – XX”. Why would the (handful of) Welsh poll this way? It could be similar to the Brexit thing (I know, sorry to bring it up, but it’s relevant, I promise!); many Welsh patriots supported Brexit for one reason – it pushes Wales towards indy. It will be much easier for us to gain our freedom without France, Spain et al blocking it at an EU level. Does that mean these guys (myself included) support the concept of a European nation not being in the EU per… Read more »

j humphrys
j humphrys
3 months ago

It is totally up to the Scots. One other little thing, for any polling in Wales, is that the first question should be: Are you Welsh?

Stuart Cane
Stuart Cane
3 months ago
Reply to  j humphrys

I’ve spent the last 25 years in Wales, the previous 25 years in England where I was born. If Scotland leaves I would vote for Welsh independence. Are you suggesting that I shouldn’t have that right because I’m not “actual” Welsh?

j humphrys
j humphrys
3 months ago
Reply to  Stuart Cane

I am suggesting that the English population in Cymru skews the polls. This is difficult to prove as no one has actually asked them their opinions?
It would be wonderful to find that I am wrong. I have no authority to prevent you doing as you please.

Last edited 3 months ago by j humphrys
Gill Jones
Gill Jones
3 months ago
Reply to  j humphrys

I agree re: skewing the polls. In conversation with one rural County Councillor, a genuine, hard-working local representative for 25+ years, he now fears for his seat because of the overwhelming incomer tide. More so, because he is a Plaid Cymru member!

Hannergylch
Hannergylch
3 months ago
Reply to  Stuart Cane

You’re very welcome here! J Humphreys is just asking about the pollsters’ methods (fair enough, since their sample size was only 195). For instance, did they check whether their interviewees were residents or visitors? Was the survey conducted in some place like Hay or Knighton with frequent foot-traffic from England?

Chris
Chris
3 months ago

One might suspect this poll (and suspiciously small sample size) was designed ot drive a wedge between the various indy movements.
I don’t claim to be an expert but I have never heard of the Panelbase polling org
Having checked out Panelbase and its parent company DRG Insights, these seem to provide small scale business intelligence.
Now all of a sudden they are a respected pollster? Is that a fish I smell?

Last edited 3 months ago by Chris
Chris
Chris
3 months ago
Reply to  Chris

So I dug deeper. “Panelbase” provides polls to the Sunday Times

Gill Jones
Gill Jones
3 months ago
Reply to  Chris

Enough said. The old ‘divide and conquer’ theory which has the Boris aroma all over it.

Hywel
Hywel
3 months ago

I sympathise with fellow countrymen who don’t want to see Scotland leave, imagine being the United Kingdom of ENGLAND & wales. Duw duw… But in all seriousness, all the power to them, show us how it can be done and hopefully one day we’lll do the same.

Erisian
Erisian
3 months ago

Never report a poll without disclosing the wording of the questions and the method of selection of respondents. There is a brilliant episode of Yes Minister where Sir Humpfrey explains how to elicit the answer you want with ‘priming’ questions.

Stephen Owen
Stephen Owen
3 months ago

It is not really a matter for people in Wales or England, whatever they may think. It is a decision for the people of Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
3 months ago

Like this post if you agree that the Scottish people have a right to determine their own future, as we Welsh do too.

Colin Mann
Colin Mann
3 months ago

Agree, it is an irrelevant question but does anyone know whether the opinion of Welsh people was from Wales only or the very strange Wales and Midlands ‘region’ that was invented by You Gov

Paul Griffiths
Paul Griffiths
3 months ago

Putting the quality of polling data, which is pretty questionable to one side and it’s not up to Wales what the Scots decide. The thinking behind these responses will no doubt reflect the out and out unionists, but also a bit of self preservation. If Scotland left the union, that just leaves Wales and a broken Northern Ireland – Wales becomes another adjunct to England, like Cornwall we slowly just become subsumed.

Wrexhamian
Wrexhamian
3 months ago

My initial reaction was “58% in Wales against Scottish independence? Where did they conduct ths poll? Fairbourne?” But the 42% that were in favour is just a little higher than the percentage that have been in favour of Welsh indy in polls conducted in this country. So it may well be an accurate (if miniscule) sample.

The surprising figure is the large percentage in England who support the idea of the Scots leaving.

Richard Morse
Richard Morse
3 months ago

This is a ridiculously small sample size in Wales to draw conclusions from. 1000+ carefully selected responders is supposed to be the minimum to ensure that any results of an opinion poll have any statistical validity.

Richard Winder
Richard Winder
3 months ago

There is little interest in Wales for Independence as shown by the Senedd election result.Plaid made it a cornerstone of their campaign.They had an a abysmal share of the vote.For all Mrs Sturgeons anti union bluster,Scotland will not vote for independence either.Voting in local elections for the SNP with all their freebies is one thing,voting for Independence is entirely different.

Johnny Gamble
Johnny Gamble
2 months ago
Reply to  Richard Winder

What on Earth has Plaid Cymru got to do with this! This topic is about an opinion poll of 195 people put of a population of around 3 million.Unless I’ve missed something Plaid Cymru wasn’t even mentioned in the post.

Last edited 2 months ago by Johnny Gamble
Quornby
Quornby
2 months ago

I want them to have and win a referendum in the hope that the unionist half of Wales will wake up and smell the coffee.

Huw Phillips
Huw Phillips
2 months ago

Which voters did they actually ask in Wales? 3 Tory voters in chepstow?

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