Welsh voters explain why they switched sides from Labour and Plaid Cymru to Reform

Richard Youle, Local Democracy Reporter

Reform UK hasn’t quite parked its tanks in Wales but it’s been on manoeuvres and already come away with council by-election victories.

Just over a fortnight ago Reform UK’s Michelle Beer won a vacant Lliedi seat by a stretch, defeating Welsh Labour in what has been solid Labour territory going by the 2022, 2017 and 2012 council elections. She is Reform UK’s first Carmarthenshire councillor.

At last summer’s general election, Labour incumbent Nia Griffith held onto the Llanelli seat with 31.3% of the vote. But Reform UK’s Gareth Beer – Michelle’s husband – wasn’t a million miles away in second place with a 27.6% share. Reform UK, it seems, aren’t going anywhere.

A YouGov/ITV Wales poll last month had Plaid Cymru leading the race for the Senedd in 2026 with 30% of the vote, followed by Reform UK in second on 25%. Labour were third with 18%.

Winter fuel

Bellwether voter Stella Bartlett, of Lliedi, voted for Labour’s Ms Griffith last July and for Reform UK’s Mrs Beer on May 29.

Asked about the switch, she said: “It was because of what’s happening with Labour – they say one thing and do another. It was the way they took off money for winter fuel, and now they’re going to put it back, but not all of it.

“It’s the cuts and putting National Insurance up for the workers which they shouldn’t be doing. My granddaughter is a care worker and does a lot of overtime. When it comes to her pay, the tax is unbelievable.”

The 76-year-old added: “I met the Reform candidate (Mrs Beer) when she came to my door, and she was lovely. I also just happen to like Nigel Farage and what he is for. He seems down to earth, no airs and graces, like a normal person.”

Last autumn Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a rise in the level of National Insurance contributions paid by employers rather than employees to help plug what Labour claimed was a £22 billion black hole left by the previous Conservative Government. It came into effect in April this year, as did inflation-busting increases in the national living wage and minimum wage.

However, more people are slipping into the income tax bracket because of a freeze on the amount you can earn – known as the personal allowance – before the 20% basic rate applies.

All political decisions are trade-offs and the winter fuel hokey cokey seems to have left its mark on some voters.

Neil Thomas, of Llanelli, said he didn’t expect to receive winter fuel allowance when he is eligible in a few years’ time. The 62-year-old felt aggrieved that he was turned down for Personal Independence Payment following a medical assessment. Happily for him, he said his cousin appealed on his behalf and it was reinstated.

“I voted Labour at the last general election and always voted Labour locally – never again,” said Mr Thomas. “Next election, I will be voting for Reform.”

‘Straight-talking’

Mr Thomas said he liked what he’d seen of Reform UK and Nigel Farage on television. “He’s straight-talking. He speaks his mind,” he said. “He would be a good Prime Minister. The one we’ve got now, we don’t know what the hell he’s doing.”

Would the Reform UK leader and MP for Clacton have Wales’ interests at heart, I asked? “We’ve got to wait and see,” said Mr Thomas.

Craig Morgan, of Llanelli, voted for Reform UK last July after previously voting Conservative. He said he didn’t feel the two traditionally strongest parties were “doing anything good” for people.

“They’re trying to do up Llanelli but it’s taking years,” said the 43-year-old. “I felt like a change was needed.” He said people needed better access to housing.

Mr Morgan added: “Nigel Farage is a character. He says things how they are, but thank God he’s not like Donald Trump, yet.”

Reservations

Asked if he’d had any reservations about voting for Reform UK, Mr Morgan didn’t say no but added that he didn’t want to get into a discussion about immigration.

Would he vote for Reform UK at next year’s Senedd elections? “I will see at the time,” he said.

Richard Thomas, 73, is a Reform UK convert and said levels of legal and illegal immigration concerned him. However he said he didn’t blame people for coming to the UK to seek work in the health and care sectors.

“If we didn’t have them our hospitals would be knackered,” he said. “There are also a lot of them at my mother’s care home – they’re better than our own people.”

Many years ago Mr Thomas, of Pontyates, a few miles north-west of Llanelli, worked at the nearby Cynheidre colliery.

He liked what he heard from the Reform UK leader when he visited Port Talbot on June 9, such as bringing blast furnaces back to the steelworks and allowing coal to be mined to power them.

“He spoke well at Port Talbot,” said Mr Thomas, who previously tended to vote for Plaid Cymru. “What’s wrong with burning coal? It’s the best heat we ever had in our house.”

Was he worried that Reform UK might over-promise and, if it were to hold sway in the Senedd or House of Commons one day, under-deliver? “It depends on how much money there is in the kitty then,” he replied.