Welsh voters want a voice for Wales, not independence, says pollster

Martin Shipton

Focus groups of voters in Wales have told pollsters they want a party that provides a voice for Wales rather than one that pushes independence.

In a pre-Senedd election webinar for journalists, Luke Tryl of the polling organisation More in Common said: “This takes different forms for different voter groups: Reform voters are disenchanted with devolution in part because of the Senedd’s perceived inability to challenge Westminster. This anger is also fuelling Plaid Cymru: Plaid voters are the most likely voter group to say that issues facing Wales will influence their vote, rather than issues facing the UK.

“Plaid’s unique position as an independent Welsh party – without a less popular Westminster-wide party – helps to set it apart from Labour and Reform UK. In focus groups, voters describe Plaid as locally-rooted and sincere, contrasting it with an ‘out-of-touch’ Labour Party and ‘parachute’ candidates from Reform UK.”

Anger

Mr Tryl said that anger towards Labour, as well as fear of Reform, may have de-risked Plaid Cymru for some voters that had previously been wary of supporting Plaid..

He added: “Plaid Cymru enters this election with momentum, but questions remain about whether they are ready to lead Wales. Only 42% believe the party would be ready to form a government if it won. Yet they perform better compared to Reform: only 28% think Reform is ready for government in Wales. And most Welsh people doubt whether Labour is fit for re-election: just 21% think that Labour is fit to govern Wales if they win re-election, compared to 51% who say they are not.

“So while voters aren’t entirely convinced by Plaid Cymru, it seems that anger toward Labour, and a desire to block Reform UK, has de-risked Plaid Cymru.”

Mr Try said: “As we saw in the Caerphilly by-election last year, many voters on the left are rallying behind Plaid as the best choice to stop Reform UK. They are particularly pulling in 2024 Labour voters. Over a third (36%) of their current voting base say they voted for Labour at the last general election. Around a tenth of their vote say they did not vote in 2024 but intend to this time, while a similar proportion backed either the Lib Dems, Conservatives or Greens.

“Much like the Greens in England and Scotland, Plaid has become a key destination for disillusioned progressives in Wales. This has implications for Plaid Cymru’s voter coalition, who have moved firmly to the left since 2021. In focus groups, Welsh progressives describe feeling let down by Labour in Westminster – with decisions on welfare and spending convincing them that the party was no different from the Tories.”

Coalition

However, there is concern at the prospect of Plaid Cymru going into coalition with Labour. Mr Tryl said: “With Plaid fuelled by a widespread vote for change, the emerging possibility of a Plaid-Labour coalition is coming up in focus groups as a hesitation around voting for Plaid Cymru. Nine in ten (92%) Plaid Cymru supporters say that a Plaid majority would be a good outcome, but this drops to 75% when asked about a Plaid-Green coalition. Only three in five Plaid supporters think a Plaid-Labour coalition would be a good outcome, while one in five (21%) say it would be a bad thing.

“Respect is the public’s number one demand from politicians, and any government that hopes to win back public trust in an age of anti-politics will need to demonstrate real respect for ‘ordinary’ Welsh people. This is a measure on which Rhun ap Iorweth performs particularly well: 43% of Welsh people say he respects the people of Wales – more than the proportion who say the same for any other leader. This may also present an electoral liability for both Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer: majorities of Welsh people say that these leaders lack respect for the people of Wales.”

Trump

Meanwhile many voters said the main barrier stopping them from voting for Reform is Farage’s support for Donald Trump. Some 22% of non-Reform voters say this while 15% also object to Farage himself.

Beyond objecting to Reform’s leader, key issues were a lack of trust in Reform’s support for the NHS and ability to manage the economy. One in five stated that they would not vote Reform as they believe the party does not care about Wales, suggesting that Reform’s ‘Englishness’ remains a barrier to Welsh support.

Mr Tryl said: “Wales is not distinct from England in attitudes toward migration, with three in five saying levels are too high. However, the issue is less salient in Wales. Welsh voters are less likely than those in England to see immigration – or small boats – as top issues facing the country. This gap also applies to Reform voters: 44% of Welsh Reform voters say channel crossings are a top issue, compared to 64% of English Reform voters.

“Welsh Reform voters are three times more likely to worry about the NHS than English Reform voters (50% to 17%). In focus groups, it’s clear that Welsh voters considering Reform UK are driven by a sense that the country isn’t working, anger toward the Labour government, and in some cases a sense that devolution has failed.”