‘We’ve seen only 35 jobs’: north Wales growth deal ‘way off’ 4,200 target

Chris Haines, ICNN Senedd reporter

The £1bn north Wales growth deal aimed to create around 4,200 jobs when it was signed four-and-a-half years ago but has delivered only 35 so far, a committee heard.

Charlie McCoubrey, vice-chair of the north Wales economic ambition board, said four projects have moved into delivery, with a further six in the pipeline. But he recognised: “We’re all disappointed by the pace and scale of the delivery so far.”

Cllr McCoubrey told the Senedd’s economic committee that projects, which were no longer considered viable as part of the 15-year deal, have been removed from plans.

The independent leader of Conwy council said some projects have been removed entirely while others have moved to a reserve list.

Hedd Vaughan-Evans, head of operations for Ambition North Wales, a partnership between six councils, was similarly disappointed by progress on the deal.

‘Very low’

But he said: “We really turned a corner last year in terms of the number of business cases approved… and the forecast for the coming years is really positive.”

Sam Kurtz, a Conservative member of the Senedd economy committee, questioned the witnesses about the growth deal delivering a total investment of £16.6m since 2020.

Pressed about the level of private investment, Cllr McCoubrey said: “At the moment, the actual level of private-sector investment is very low, it’s £1.8m.” He told the committee the private investment target for the six projects due to move into delivery is £137m.

He pointed to the growth deal’s role in the Deeside anaerobic digestion plant, which generated a £60m investment, though “that doesn’t go on our balance sheet”.

Mr Vaughan-Evans explained that the Trawsfynydd project, aimed at supporting the nuclear industry, was a significant proportion, roughly 40%, of the deal.

‘Optimism bias’

“So, it was heavily weighted towards one project that has now been removed,” he said. “And that, obviously, leaves us with a challenge as a region that we need to meet.”

Mr Vaughan-Evans was open with Senedd members, acknowledging that the growth deal is “significantly behind” on original jobs forecasts.

He said: “On reflection, the original forecasts at the time of signing the deal were rife with optimism bias in terms of how mature some of the projects were.”

He told the committee the pandemic and ensuing inflation crisis only exacerbated problems.

Mr Vaughan-Evans said: “We’ve seen only 35 jobs created but that’s on the back of only one project in operation and three currently in delivery, so we hope to see a significant increase.”

Ambition North Wales’ written evidence showed 26 were direct jobs, with nine indirect.

‘25% less’

Cllr McCoubrey said: “Flexibility will be required, looking at the targets in light of inflationary challenges… and projects that have fallen out like Trawsfynydd, there needs to be a wholesale look at what we are trying to target.

“I would emphasise as well, there’s an awful lot of emphasis on new jobs – in the current climate, I think it’s just as important to look at protecting existing jobs as well. There’s no point creating 4,000 jobs in one area if you’re losing 4,000 jobs elsewhere.”

He pointed out that you would need £310m today to match the buying power of the £240m contribution pledged from Westminster and Cardiff Bay in 2020. “What we can do with that money is 25% less than it would have been,” said the council chief.

Mr Vaughan-Evans explained that Ambition North Wales has flexibility around individual projects but the overarching targets remain fixed.

He suggested north Wales may have to return money not drawn down, with further clarity being sought from the Welsh and UK Governments. “That would have a long-term implication on the deal, what we could fund and our ability to hit the targets,” he said.