Why a polling company believes Plaid Cymru is likely to run the next Welsh Government

Martin Shipton

The polling company More In Common has outlined the factors its research makes it believe Plaid Cymru could take charge of the Welsh Government after May’s Senedd election.

Fuelled by defections from Labour and a widespread desire for change, Plaid Cymru looks likely to lead the next government of Wales.

It could also be helped by the fact that a smaller proportion of voters in Wales see migration as a major issue as opposed to their counterparts in England.

As the party’s support has grown, its support base has changed significantly: disillusioned Welsh Labour voters are switching to Plaid Cymru, meaning progressives now make up more than half of its supporters, while many of its former right-leaning populist voters have moved to Reform UK.

Welsh people describe Plaid Cymru as “hopeful” and “optimistic”, but some also see it as “dangerous” and “unknown”. In a nation where four in five voters believe it’s time for change, the party needs to convince voters that it represents something genuinely new, while also proving that it is ready for government.

The public mood in Wales in 2026 is one of disillusionment. Asked to describe the current state of Wales in a word, “poor”, “struggling” and “broken” rank highly – although “good” and “beautiful” also feature heavily. More than half of Welsh people (53%) say that things are getting worse in Wales – albeit far lower than the 75% of Britons who say the UK is getting worse.

Labour is facing a double-incumbency effect in Wales. After 27 years of Labour Government in the Senedd, four in five Welsh people (including 47 per cent of Labour voters) believe it is time for a change in how Wales is being run. After just 18 months in Westminster, Labour’s support in Wales has halved as the party has lost support across the left, right and centre.

Status quo

With Welsh Labour expected to campaign on a message of “staying the course”, many voters see a Labour vote as backing the status quo – with 7 in 10 saying the party represents “more of the same”. Against this backdrop, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are competing to position themselves as the main vehicle for change. While voters are far more likely to think Plaid represents change than Labour or the Conservatives, Reform UK is still leading as the main ‘change party’. It’s possible that Plaid’s history in coalition government might mean some voters associate it with the status quo.

Reform UK has provided an electoral vehicle for voters disillusioned with devolution in Wales. A third of Welsh adults-– and seven in ten Reform UK voters – support abolishing the Senedd. Meanwhile, 26% of Welsh people, and more than three in five Reform voters, say devolution has been bad for Wales. However, Welsh Labour voters are aligned with Plaid voters in their support for devolution. In this context, support for the Senedd represents a point of shared ground between Plaid Cymru’s core voters and many defectors from Labour.

Plaid Cymru’s preference for a slower, long-term approach to independence may align with Welsh public opinion, as attempting to open an independence debate within a first term of government could risk splitting the party’s support base. While most Plaid supporters back independence, many of those who say they would consider voting for the party – as well as Labour and Reform UK voters – tend to say they would vote against it.

Respect

Respect is the public’s number one demand from politicians, and any government that hopes to win back the public trust in an age of anti-politics will need to demonstrate real respect for ordinary Welsh people. This is a measure on which Rhun ap Iorweth performs particularly well: 43 per cent of Welsh people say he respects the people of Wales – more than the proportion who say the same for any other leader. This may also present an electoral liability for both Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer: majorities of Welsh people say that these leaders lack respect for the people of Wales.

A potential barrier to Reform UK’s growth in Wales appears to be a perception that the party lacks a distinctively Welsh offer. For some voters, Reform is seen as disconnected from the Welsh language, its culture and priorities. It’s worth noting that Reform UK voters are the least likely voter group to identify as mostly or entirely Welsh – so this critique may resonate more with Plaid voters. This may be another opportunity for Plaid Cymru to stand out as a vote for change that is distinctly Wales-focused.

Plaid Cymru voters are the most likely voter group to say that issues facing Wales will influence their vote, rather than issues facing the UK. However, majorities of Labour and Reform voters also want Welsh issues to be at the forefront. Plaid’s unique position as an independent Welsh Party helps to set it apart from Labour and Reform UK. A focus on Welsh issues can help Plaid Cymru to stand out – while avoiding splitting the public by renewing the independence debate.

Asked about the top priority for the next Welsh Government, tackling the cost of living and supporting the NHS rank highest across all voter groups. Labour voters are more likely than average to prioritise the NHS, while Plaid Cymru voters place greater emphasis on jobs and unemployment. Reform UK voters are twice as likely as the Welsh public overall to say migration should be the top priority. However, they are still twice as likely to select the cost of living (34%) as immigration levels (16%).

Climate change

On the fundamentals of the climate debate, the energy transition is supported in Wales: three in five Welsh people say they are worried about climate change, and the Welsh public remain more likely to support (41%) than oppose (26%) the UK’s Net Zero target. However, much like in Scotland and England, Net Zero appears increasingly polarised in Wales. For many, this appears to be driven by a sense that the energy transition will not benefit Wales: Welsh Reform voters are three times more likely to say that reaching Net Zero will be bad for Wales than good for it. Plaid Cymru’s decision to move away from the Net Zero by 2035 target – and focus on community ownership renewable policies that tangibly affect people may be a better way into the climate debate.

Wales is not distinct from England in attitudes toward migration, with three in five saying levels are too high. However, the issue is less salient in Wales. Welsh voters are less likely than those in England to see immigration – or small boats – as top issues facing the country. This gap also applies to Reform voters: 44% of Welsh Reform voters say channel crossings are a top issue, compared to 64 per cent of English Reform voters.

More in Common’s latest polling suggests that, if a Senedd election were held tomorrow, Plaid Cymru could provide the next First Minister – albeit short of the 49 seats needed for a majority. Reform UK, meanwhile, could emerge as the largest party in the Senedd and the official opposition. On these numbers, Plaid Cymru may have to form a ‘rainbow coalition’ with an unpopular Welsh Labour Party, alongside the Greens or Liberal Democrats. In that scenario, the party would need to consider how it can project a sense of stability, and also retain its appeal as a vote for change.

Defections reflect both disillusionment with Welsh Labour and dissatisfaction with the UK Labour Government. However, only 8% of Labour’s lost Welsh voters blame the Welsh Government alone. By contrast, 42% point to Westminster, while a further 42% cite a combination of both governments. Criticism focused solely on the Welsh Government may not align with how voters attribute responsibility.

Voter coalition

Fewer than half of those who intend to vote for Plaid Cymru in May also voted for the party in the 2024 General Election. More than a third of Plaid supporters (36%) voted Labour. Roughly a quarter voted Labour in the 2021 Senedd Election. This has implications for Plaid Cymru’s voter coalition in the run-up to the 2026 election.

Since 2021, Plaid Cymru’s voter base has moved further to the centre-left. Much like the Green Party in England and Scotland, Plaid has become a key destination for disillusioned progressives in Wales. Asked to rate themselves on a 10-point scale, where 0 is “very left-wing” and 10 is “very right-wing”, the median Plaid Voter now places themselves at 4, whereas in 2021 the median Plaid voter placed themselves at 5.

As progressive Welsh voters have abandoned Labour in favour of Plaid Cymru, the party’s profile has changed dramatically. Progressive Activists and Incrementalist Left now form more than half (54%) of Plaid Cymru’s voter base – with Progressive Activists now forming 26% of the party base. Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru have shed many of their right-leaning voters – including Dissenting Disruptors – to Reform UK, who have emerged as the main anti-status-quo party in Wales.

More in Common polling shows Plaid Cymru in second place behind Reform UK. However, the party may also have the greatest room for growth: alongside the 24% of likely Welsh voters who currently support Plaid, a further 22% say they would consider voting for them.

Plaid Cymru’s appeal cuts across party lines, with 38% of Labour voters and 11% of Reform UK voters saying they would consider backing the party. A quarter of Plaid Cymru considerers are Dissenting Disruptors.

While this suggests Plaid Cymru has significant room to grow, converting these ‘considerers’ into supporters will be challenging, and will require Plaid to campaign on a policy agenda that appeals to a broad range of voters.