Will Plaid MS Cefin Campbell step aside to ensure Adam Price’s re-election?

Martin Shipton

Fresh speculation has arisen about the political future of former Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price, with the suggestion that another of the party’s Senedd Members may leave his home county to help ensure Mr Price’s re-election.

Rumours circulating among Plaid members suggest that Mid and West Wales regional MS Cefin Campbell – a former Carmarthenshire county councillor – could seek election elsewhere.

The change in the Senedd electoral system that will take effect in 2026 means that MSs who want to continue their political careers need to be selected as candidates in one of 16 new “super constituencies”. Each super constituency will elect six Senedd Members by a form of proportional representation using closed lists of candidates.

People will vote for a party rather than for individuals, and parties will choose the order in which its candidates will be elected, if they win sufficient votes.

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

Mr Price currently represents the constituency of Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, which has been held by Plaid Cymru since the then National Assembly came into being in 1999. Following boundary changes, a larger seat called Caerfyrddin has been created. Caerfyrddin will be twinned with the neighbouring seat of Llanelli to form one of the new super constituencies, and it would seem logical for Mr Price to seek selection in it.

However, Nation.Cymru has been told by Plaid Cymru insiders that Mr Price would struggle to get selected for a winnable place on the party’s closed list in Caerfyrddin / Llanelli.

While Plaid could win two seats out of the six available, it’s thought highly unlikely that the party could take a third seat.

Cefin Campbell was elected as a regional Senedd Member for Mid and West Wales in 2021 under the old electoral system.

Popular

One Plaid source told us: “Cefin very quickly established himself as an effective representative, is very popular among party members and it is thought highly likely that he would beat Adam in a selection contest for top spot on the new Carmarthenshire closed list.

“Plaid is very likely to have a candidate selection process which alternates male and female candidates. That would mean that a woman would take the second spot on the list and Adam would be left in third position and very unlikely to win a seat in the Senedd.”

Recently there was a rumour in Plaid circles that Mr Price would give up on Carmarthenshire and seek selection for a seat in Cardiff, where Rhys ab Owen, the MS elected for Plaid at the last election in 2021, was expelled from the party after being suspended from the Senedd for inappropriately touching two women when drunk on a night out.

However, last week Mr Price’s team issued a statement that said: “In order to dispel rumours, Adam announces that he intends seeking nomination as one of the Plaid Cymru candidates in Carmarthenshire in 2026.”

This statement has now prompted a further rumour – that Cefin Campbell won’t seek to stand in Carmarthenshire, but instead in the adjacent super constituency covering Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire.

Another Plaid source told us: “If Cefin went to Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire, it would almost certainly guarantee Adam a seat in the next Senedd. Cefin could also share the top spots on the Plaid closed list in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire with Elin Jones [the Senedd’s Presiding Officer who has represented Ceredigion since 1999].”

Next steps

We asked Mr Campbell about the suggestion that he would seek selection in Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire rather than Carmarthenshire. He would only say: “I will announce my next steps re Senedd 2026 in due course.”

Mr Price was elected as the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in 2001, holding the seat until 2010 when he took a career break to study at Harvard University’s renowned Kennedy School in Cambridge, Massachusetts. In 2016 he returned to elected politics, becoming the MS for his old constituency.

In 2018 he was elected leader of Plaid Cymru amid high hopes that the party would return to government three years later. But the impact of Brexit and the Convid pandemic changed the political landscape, and Plaid performed below expectations in the 2021 Senedd election.

In 2023 Mr Price resigned as party leader following allegations of bullying and sexual harassment involving members of Plaid’s staff at the Senedd.