Will Welsh Labour have enough money to run an effective Senedd election campaign?

Martin Shipton

Welsh Labour sources have told Nation.Cymru they are concerned that the state of the party’s finances could make it difficult to mount an effective campaign in the run-up to next May’s Senedd election.

It recently emerged that in 2024 UK Labour made a loss of £3.8m – significantly higher than the £1.7m that had been budgeted for.

A report by UK Labour’s Treasurer Mike Payne, a retired full-time official of the GMB union from Cardiff, states: The 2024 budget was set with a planned deficit of £1.7m, carefully balanced to be funded from reserves and with a target to achieve above budgeted income generation. This aligned with the organisation’s need to scale up in preparation for the general election and included deliberate investments in additional staff capacity, expanded office facilities, and the direct costs of running the campaign itself.

“The financial year closed with a deficit of £3.8m, which exceeded the budgeted deficit by £2.1m. This variance reflects the dynamic nature of our operating environment and the need to respond at pace to shifting circumstances in the general election campaign, while keeping strategic objectives firmly in sight.”

Deficit

However, the deficit in 2024 also reflected the big loss in party membership during the period when Keir Starmer has led it, with almost 200,000 lost in the past five years, according to its own figures.

From a peak of 532,046 members at the end of 2019, the numbers are now down to 333,235.

In his Treasurer’s report, Mr Payne suggests that local parties should be raising more money themselves.

But a senior Welsh Labour source told us: “With the hollowing out of the membership, it is difficult to see how an effective campaign can be organised in the run-up to next May. One of the party’s strengths has always been the ability to turn the vote out on the day, but it’s going to be tougher now.

“It’s also asking a lot to expect local parties to make up the shortfall in funding.”

‘Turnoff’

Another party source said: “A big part of the problem is that Starmer is a turnoff for most voters. There wasn’t a great deal of enthusiasm for Labour before last year’s general election, but we won seats because people wanted rid of the Tories. The Tories are now out of the picture and in Wales we’re fighting both Plaid and Reform.

“Reform is very good at getting its message across on social media and Labour needs to be able to match that. But whether we have the resources to do that – and whether those running the campaign have the skill to combat Reform’s propaganda – remains to be seen.”

Reform UK claims to have more than 259,000 members across the UK, according to a ticker on its website. It also claims that Labour’s membership is now down to 309,000.

Reform can rely on wealthy donors who support its deregulation agenda and the party has stated that it will be throwing everything it’s got at the Senedd election.

Limits

With the change in constituencies and voting system, the limits on spending in the Senedd election have changed.

A party which stands a list of at least six candidates in every constituency, which means they are theoretically able to win every seat, will have a total limit of £1,120,000, which has been calculated to be approximately the same as that available to a party and its candidates contesting all constituencies and regions at the 2021 Senedd election, reflecting the policy intention of adapting the existing limits to the new system.

Welsh Labour was invited to comment, but did not do so.