YouGov MRP poll: Conservatives projected to win key seats in the north of Wales

Westminster Government Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Picture by Annika Haas (CC BY 2.0)

The Conservative Party are on course to win key target seats in Wales and secure a comfortable majority overall, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago.

Based on more than 100,000 interviews over seven days, YouGov has modelled voting preferences based on age, gender, education, and past vote as part of its multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model.

The poll for the Times shows Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s party winning Labour target seats in the north of Wales including Ynys Môn, the Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South and Wrexham, but falling short in Cardiff North, Gower and Bridgend in the south.

They are also projected to take Brecon and Radnorshire in mid-Wales, which was won by Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds in August.

Plaid Cymru are however predicted to retain Ceredigion, leaving the Liberal Democrats with no constituencies in Wales.

The full projected results are:

  • Conservatives: 359 (+42)
  • Labour: 211 (-51)
  • SNP: 43 (+8)
  • Lib Dem: 13 (+1)
  • Plaid Cymru: 4 (-)
  • Green: 1 (-)
  • Other: 1 (-)

However, the poll shows Labour within three points of retaining 16 seats the model predicts it would lose now. YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 percentage points to less than 7 could yet deny Boris Johnson a majority.

The pollster said it will repeat the model before election day using updated results.

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Dave BrookerErnie The SmallholderHuw DaviesAlanKeith Darlington Recent comment authors
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Eric Hall
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Eric Hall

If the people of Wales vote in the Tories, they must be out of their tiny minds.

Ernie The Smallholder
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Ernie The Smallholder

Even Michael Heseltine (former senior Tory minister) will NOT be voting Tory this time. and is encouraging his supporters to vote Liberal Democrats.

Martin Hughes
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Martin Hughes

Conservative unlikely to win Ynys Mon when Kensington based candidate doesn’t turn up for hustings!

Sioned Gwilym
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Sioned Gwilym

Poll also showed #libdems on 8%. They ‘re not even standing

Stuart Stanton
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Stuart Stanton

Don’t believe a word of it. YouGov use a very cleverly slanted set of questions…..and you have to select them the first place, they don’t just ring people up. Emma Dent Coad ahead of Tories in local poll published earlier for Kensington.

Keith Darlington
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Keith Darlington

YouGov results are very similar to many other polls during the campaign giving an average lead of more than 10%. To say the Tories are not going to win is to engage in denialism. Bookmakers are no fools and don’t part with their money easily. Yet, they are offering odds of 25 to 1 on a Labour majority. Surely, that tells you something about the likely outcome? I am anti-Tory myself and would hate to see them win, but Labour must change strategy now (being the largest party) and work with other parties on the progressive Left to stop the… Read more »

Gareth Williams
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Gareth Williams

I feel physically sick that this situation is even possible!

Dave Brooker
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Dave Brooker

Can’t really see Tories winning in Anglesey, but looking like they will take back Brecon and Radnor, farmers solid Tories

Siân
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Siân

How on earth can people vote for this awful party. Can’t they see the homeless people on our streets, working people resorting to food banks, massive growth in poverty and poor mental health. …. As for our public services including NHS – absolute devestation. … Food security in terms of chlorinated chicken and hormone treated low quality meat from US has hardly been mentioned …. People really need to wake up…. It’s worse than 1979…

jr humphrys
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jr humphrys

Of course lots of things are not mentioned. Why would the Tory press do so? But, I think the fear of losing the NHS will sway the Welsh people from this point on. Some people in Wales have voted Tory in a sort of auto-pilot manor for decades. Conclusion; the Welsh have not changed parties greatly but Settlers have pushed the gauge over. Trouble ahead?

Huw Davies
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Huw Davies

“Settlers” are a big issue especially the type that move west of Clawdd Offa to “escape” other immigrants entering England. Unfortunately they come to Wales not for anew beginning but to transplant their supremacist values.

Ernie The Smallholder
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Ernie The Smallholder

Some settlers have come to Wales (and Scotland) to escape the the Tory disaster and stagnation.
I voted (and became a member of) Plaid Cymru so we do not follow the English road to economic and social disaster and isolation from Europe.
Yes, In a few years time I will reach my 65th birthday.

Dave Brooker
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Dave Brooker

“settlers” as you xenophobicly put it make up such a small proportion of the voter base in places like Anglesey or Bridgend to make their influence meaningless.

jr humphrys
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jr humphrys

Vote tactically to keep your EU food standards.

Keith Darlington
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Keith Darlington

These YouGov results are very similar to many other polls during the campaign giving an average lead of more than 10%. To say the Tories are not going to win is to engage in denialism. Bookmakers are no fools and don’t part with their money easily. Yet, they are offering odds of 25 to 1 on a Labour majority. Surely, that tells you something about the likely outcome? I am anti-Tory myself and would hate to see them win, but Labour must change strategy now (being the largest party) and work with other parties on the progressive Left to stop… Read more »

Alan
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Alan

What about The Little Turd’s seat, the Vale of Glamorgan!?