The Conservative Party are on course to win key target seats in Wales and secure a comfortable majority overall, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago.
Based on more than 100,000 interviews over seven days, YouGov has modelled voting preferences based on age, gender, education, and past vote as part of its multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model.
The poll for the Times shows Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s party winning Labour target seats in the north of Wales including Ynys Môn, the Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South and Wrexham, but falling short in Cardiff North, Gower and Bridgend in the south.
They are also projected to take Brecon and Radnorshire in mid-Wales, which was won by Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds in August.
Plaid Cymru are however predicted to retain Ceredigion, leaving the Liberal Democrats with no constituencies in Wales.
The full projected results are:
- Conservatives: 359 (+42)
- Labour: 211 (-51)
- SNP: 43 (+8)
- Lib Dem: 13 (+1)
- Plaid Cymru: 4 (-)
- Green: 1 (-)
- Other: 1 (-)
However, the poll shows Labour within three points of retaining 16 seats the model predicts it would lose now. YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 percentage points to less than 7 could yet deny Boris Johnson a majority.
The pollster said it will repeat the model before election day using updated results.