YouGov poll: Conservative gains in Wales in the balance as Labour bounce back
A YouGov poll published today suggests that the Labour party are bouncing back in Wales with a projected six percentage point lead over the Conservative party.
Wales is key to Boris Johnson’s path to a majority at the 12 December General Election but the poll projects that he is only likely to win four seats from Labour: Cardiff North, Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham.
The Conservatives are also predicted to recapture Brecon and Radnor from Welsh Liberal Democrats leader Jane Dodds after the August by-election.
This represents a turnaround from the beginning of the month, when the Conservatives were also projected to capture Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Clwyd South, Delyn, and Newport West.
The poll could spell bad news for Plaid Cymru, as it projects that they will fail to win Ynys Môn from Labour and also that they will lose Ceredigion to the Liberal Democrats.
The full results are:
- Labour: 38% (+9)
- Conservatives: 32% (+4)
- Plaid Cymru: 11% (-1)
- Liberal Democrats: 9% (-3)
- Brexit Party: 8% (-7)
- Greens: 1% (-2)
- Others: 1 (no change)
The Conservatives in Wales suffered a stuttering start to their campaign, with the resignation of Alun Cairns as Welsh Secretary and a last minute change of candidate on Ynys Môn.
Prof Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University wrote on his blog that the poll showed that things were still in the balance.
“Labour appear to be fighting back hard against the Conservative challenge, just as they did in 2017. The blundering Welsh Conservative campaign cannot have helped either,” he said.
“But it is still all to play for: significant Conservative gains in Wales are still very much within sight. These next two-and-a-half weeks will determine whether or not they are delivered.”
Despite a 1% drop in the polls Plaid Cymru pointed to the fact that according to the results, Adam Price was the most popular leader in Wales, “proving that he is the only leader providing real leadership in this election”.
“The more people hear Adam Price’s ambition and hope for the future of Wales, the more they like him. We’re looking forward to him speaking up for Wales in the Leaders’ Debate this week,” a spokesperson said.
“Our candidates and activists are working hard, and speaking to more people than ever. We’re going to carry on working hard right up to the election to elect the largest group ever of Plaid Cymru MPs.”
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Polls, polls…. fodder for the chattering journos and commenters to waffle on about. Predictive ability about as good as sticking a finger into the breeze. The poll that matters will be here soon, parties seeking success need to communicate with their electorates and offer meaningful arguments. Barrowloads of empty promises will impress no-one.
Much of the polling seems flawed.Landline bias,weighting against young voter turnout,untrustworthy(Eg YouGov)providers.From canvassing experiences election seems wide open to me as the public wrestles with pisspoor newspapers,propaganda level BBC news output and volatile social media sources.Several points re Welsh votes;Gravy train Labour MPs will damage Lab.vote. Ceredigion does not look so likely to fall an older white bloke from the Libs.Tories remain a party that many find difficult to accept and easy to boo..Plaid remain a v.mixed bag but will benefit from the relatively weak Welsh Gov.image and performance.