YouGov poll: Labour back in front in Wales as Lib Dem support drops

The Labour party have overtaken the Conservatives in the General Election polling with a 4% rise in the polls since the General Election was called last month.

The ITV/Cardiff University poll suggests the rise seems to have been at the expense of the Liberal Democrats who have fallen 4% in the polls.

The poll projects that the Conservative are down a percentage point and the Brexit Party up one since Boris Johnson failed to take the UK out of the EU on 31st October as promised.

The full figures are:

Labour: 29% (+4)

Conservative: 28% (-1)

Brexit Party: 15% (+1)

Plaid Cymru: 12% (-)

Liberal Democrats: 12% (-4)

Greens: 3% (-1)

According to Professor Roger Awan-Scully from Cardiff University, the following seats are projected to change hands:

• Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
• Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnorshire (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
• Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
• Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.

‘Divided’

A Plaid Cymru spokesman said that they had re-taken their position as the largest Remain party in Wales.

“This poll re-affirms that Plaid Cymru is without question the leading Remain party in Wales,” the pokesperson said.

“With the Labour party and Tories divided people have no idea what they are voting for when the back Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn, other than more chaos in Westminster.

“Crucial decisions will be made about Wales’s future in Westminster in the coming months, for Wales’s voice to be heard, people must vote for the Party of Wales – Plaid Cymru.”

The poll, for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,136 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 31 October to 4 November 2019.