A new YouGov poll has projected that the Conservatives would win almost half of the seats in the Senedd if an election would be held today.
The party are projected to win 38% of the constituency vote and 37% of the regional vote, putting them on an estimated 26 out of 60 seats according to Cardiff University’s Roger Scully.
An election would be a difficult one for Labour who would lose six of their current seats to end up on 23.
Plaid Cymru would also be reduced from 12 to 10 seats. The seven seats won by UKIP in 2016 would be reduced to zero, with the Brexit Party failing to win any of them.
The Liberal Democrats would retain their single constituency seat.
|Constituency Vote||Regional Vote||Projected Seats|
|Plaid Cymru||19||18||10 (6+4)|
|Liberal Democrats||4||4||1 (1+0)|
“Such an outcome would of course, be the first time that an election to the National Assembly for Wales had ever produced any party other than Labour winning the largest number of seats,” Professor Roger Scully said.
“But while the results in this poll are genuinely historic for the Conservatives in Wales, there are at least two reasons why they should be cautious. The first is that while voters have been supportive of their handling of Covid-19 thus far, we do not know if that will continue. If people begin to get frustrated at the restrictions on their lifestyles, or if significant numbers of them start to question the effectiveness of the UK government’s handling of the issue, then any political gains made by the Conservatives could very rapidly move into reverse.
“The second reason for caution is that much of the sampling for this poll was conducted before Sir Keir Starmer was confirmed as the new Labour party leader. An impressive start by the new Labour leader and his new team could also see the electoral landscape alter very rapidly.”