A change of power would free Wales from Labour’s internal traumas that inhibit plain talking to the UK Government
Martin Shipton
The latest campaign tactic of the flailing Welsh Conservatives is to create a scare story around the prospect of Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Sinn Fein forming a “dangerous alliance” to break up the UK.
In a press release that dropped into my inbox on Thursday morning, the Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar said in response to comments made by Scottish First Minister John Swinney: “The cat is out of the bag – a vote for Plaid Cymru is a vote to form a dangerous alliance with Sinn Fein and the SNP to break up the United Kingdom.
“The Union between Wales, Scotland, England and Northern Ireland is one of the most successful partnerships in history. In an increasingly unstable world, we are stronger and safer together.
“Only the Welsh Conservatives will protect our country from the nationalists seeking to break up the UK. We will focus on putting more money into people’s pockets and fixing our public services to get Wales working.”
In fact, Swinney’s remarks had been more nuanced. Speaking of the likelihood that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will all be led by nationalist parties after the May 7 elections, Swinney said: “I certainly would enjoy the cooperation with counterparts in Plaid and Sinn Fein in Wales and Northern Ireland.
“It is for each of those individuals to meet their political campaigns in their own countries, and I don’t speak for them.”
“But certainly from my part, I would appreciate that collaboration to change the dynamics of the United Kingdom so that we can secure my objective of winning Scottish independence.”
Swinney went on to say that the UK would change irreversibly because of the “nature of the discussions that would then be taking place” between the devolved governments and the UK Government.
Millar and Sweeney have two diametrically opposed views of the world.
For Millar, Wales has been an unambiguous beneficiary of the Union and any talk of changing the status quo is akin to treachery.
The fact that Plaid Cymru in government would team up with administrations run by the SNP and, even more shockingly, Sinn Fein, with its history of taking Ireland out of a larger version of the UK through force of arms and continuing its rebellion after an artificial statelet was carved out of Ireland to appease a minority, is seen as an outrage.
But there are other perspectives
On Friday evening I had a public conversation in Cardiff’s recently opened Oriel Afallon with Desmond Clifford, whose essay Slouching Towards Cardiff Bay has just been published. I first got to know Des when he was Ron Davies’s Press Secretary at the pre-devolution Welsh Office. He later headed the Welsh Government’s office in Brussels before returning to Cardiff to run the First Minister’s private office.
He retired last year and, as the cliché puts it, knows where the bodies are buried.
Discreet
Impeccably discreet while a working civil servant, Des is now free to pass comment on the progress of devolution and, more specifically, on the relationship between the UK Government and the Welsh Government. That’s, in short, the theme of his essay.
As a former insider, he is able to confirm that from the outset of devolution, the attitude of Whitehall towards Wales was one of condescension and dismissal.
Brexit has made things worse, and since Boris Johnson successive UK governments – both Tory and Labour – have been grabbing back powers from Wales as part of a drive to demonstrate who is boss. The hypocrisy of the Labour Party, in complaining about the power-grabs while in opposition and then continuing them when in office, is breathtaking.
Des Clifford has lost patience with the UK Government – and so have I.
But the disenchantment goes far beyond being piqued by the UK Government’s decision to take control of regional aid programmes when, according to the devolution settlement, economic development is the province of the Welsh Government.
The economic interests of Wales do not align with those of the UK Government, which since the Thatcher era of the 1980s have been geared towards the priorities of the financial services sector centred on the City of London. To pretend otherwise is to turn one’s back on reality.
New dynamic
John Swinney is right to say that if Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are all run by nationalist-led administrations, there will be a new dynamic in the relationship between them and the UK Government. In the immediate future they will call for greater respect to be shown towards them and the countries they represent, together with greater participation in joint decision making.
What cards do the three devolved administrations have to play? If the UK Government seeks to stonewall them, they will seek to mobilise discontent in the run-up to the next general election.
Many people are discontented with declining living standards attributable to the continuing cost of living crisis as well as issues like the support for Israel’s genocide and the arrest of elderly and disabled citizens who protest against that. The UK is becoming less of a liberal democracy and more of an authoritarian state – a trajectory that many find deeply disturbing and wish to dissociate themselves from.
Darren Millar and the likes of Jo Stevens, the anti-devolution Labour Welsh Secretary, believe that what is unsustainable can be sustained. But with three devolved governments cooperating for change, the pressure will inevitably increase.
With another party in charge, Wales will no longer be hampered by the internal traumas of the Labour Party that inhibit plain talking to the UK Government.
Brexit
Ironically, the Brexit for which the leader of Reform UK is largely responsible has weakened the UK economy.
Dissatisfaction and disillusionment is on the rise. There is every likelihood that voters in Northern Ireland will vote for the reunification of Ireland.
Equally, the support for an independent Scotland will increase overall, with younger people supporting such an outcome by a large margin. When the dissolution of the UK is a fait accompli, Wales will need a plan.
The time is coming when these will be matters not simply for discussion at book launches attended by the political class in Cardiff.
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The proposed devolution of Wales seems to mirror American hero Benjamin Franklin’s road leading to the separation of the America from the British Crown…
https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Benjamin-Franklin-side-with-the-American-rebels-instead-of-the-British-Crown
https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Benjamin-Franklin-side-with-the-American-rebels-instead-of-the-British-Crown
Excellent article. It is heartening to read your thoughtful and optimistic analysis, and your skewering of Labours half hearted attitude towards devolution.
Ironic that breaking up the Union was acceptable to the Tories and Faragists when it applied to the European Union but not when it applies to the UK.
I am looking forward to the day when the devolved governments work together to achieve a new, equitable settlement for us all.
I am pro-independence, though not rabidly so. Do not be fooled by romantic notions of a utopian Cymru! Politics invariably attracts the wrong sort of people – twas ever thus, and will continue in an independent Cymru. Cardiff will become a new Westminster. I’m only pro-independence because it means holding our representatives to account will be easier to do in Cardiff than in London.
Devolution in Wales has failed to deliver its potential because power is concentrated in Cardiff . A large chunk of the budget is spent there and the dormitory towns of South East Wales.The Senedd fails to serve the interests of West, Mid and North Wales and rural Wales in general. We have a situation in which the government in Cardiff mirrors the way Westminster serves the interests of London rather than the whole UK.
100% correct Terry. And the answer is remarkably simple (a silly thing to say ?).
I spoke to Sioned Williams at one of her surgeries and made this actual point. Labour have run Wales like a mini UK where all (or at least far more than should) of the benefit has been to the South East of the country. I said that the overriding priority of Plaid if they win the election is to reverse this.
She did say that is exactly Plaid’s intention. So we all need to hold them to account if they don’t follow that path.
It’s failed to deliver it’s economic promise because the economy wasn’t devolved.
Another cracking piece of analysis.from Martin Shipton. However, I find it hard that he missed the elephant in the room: of course there is widespread dissatisfaction due to declining living standards, the cost of living and issues such as Gaza and the clamping.down on civil liberties, but what about the underlying cause, the driver of all this, inequality caused by nigh on half a century of. hare-brained neoliberal economics that has transferred vast amounts of wealth from the people to a super wealthy elite who already have far too much and who politicians like Starmer & Co.refuse to tax heavily.… Read more »
The younger generation in all three Celtic countries are now strongly in favour of getting out of the Union. In Cymru it’s over 70%. Ultimately, the Union has failed them. If all three countries have pro-independence or reunification partys in charge – the break-up of the UK is highly likely.
Steve it looks as if you are being targeted by G Crybabies News Bots as I have never seen so many Down Votes on any of your comments.
We can but hope.
Independence is normal.
First Minister Eluned Morgan has shown she is incapable of fighting for Wales interests against one the of the most toxic UK Labour Governments ever to hold office. We need a new captain at the helm in Cardiff Bay not a Welsh Labour boat anchor slowing us down to crawl.
If the union did split, of the regions Wales is best placed to succeed by a significant margin. Wales has lots of small engineering organisations that can grow over 10-20 years to replace English ones based in Wales. We may prefer 125mph trains / 4 lane M4; but could manage for 30 years. The opportunity would be that Cardiff Airport could set its’ own taxes to attract international airlines / cargo flights increased (so fewer flown to England for Welsh goods), Amazon tax break removed, grow Welsh fishing industry. These items Scotland has already sorted – so they can’t get… Read more »
The same Conservative Party that came up
With this monstrosity is exactly the same party today the Dic Sion Daffydd, Darren Millar leads,
Yet they can’t understand why they have never won an all Wales Vote for 150 years when all they do is insult Welsh people.
What the bot happened earlier, my post was showing -6 and yours -9?
“The Union between Wales, Scotland, England and Northern Ireland is one of the most successful partnerships in history.” It is from an UK/English government perspective – not from this side of the border. They’ve successfully plundered all wealth and resources from their neighbouring colonies over 100s of years, its not a “partnership” when 84% of the entire population of the islands are in one country (Almost a 1/3 of the population lives in SE of England, which is predominantly urban and suburban, with 9+ million people in the capital city alone), its logical that a UK government aligns and prioritises the significant… Read more »
“prioritises the significant majority” This is the generous view, that the time poor folks in Whitehall have to direct their limited resources towards the region that can get deliver the best returns on that effort. Unfortunately it doesn’t explain the lack of systemic policies to level up the UK, or the refusal to devolve the tools that could allow the rest of the UK to build their own success without bothering the highly stressed mandarins in SW1. Exhibit A is APD. Other examples are control of NI, VAT and corporation tax, while having no problems devolving income tax that has… Read more »