A fairer, wealthier, more welcoming independent nation is in our hands
Rob Hughes, Chair, YesCymru
They say that a week is a long time in politics. For the independence movements of the Celtic nations, there has never been a truer phrase.
YesCymru will hold our 11th march for Independence in Aberystwyth on Saturday (26/09/26). We will do so riding the crest of a a wave, and one the world didn’t see coming.
Social media and news outlets have been scrambling for anyone to give a comment on the meeting last Monday of the leaders of the three nations of the UK.
Although we have known since May that all three were now being governed by parties that want to end their nations’ participation in the UK, it has taken their Memorandum of Understanding to make the world sit up and take notice.
The commentary has been interesting. From scorn to a general dismissal of the aims to a lazer like spotlight on Scotland and Northern Ireland. Wales tended to once again slip under the Radar. When it was raised, it tended to focus on Wales being somehow incapable of following the others.
That suits us. We have become very used to slipping under the Radar and it works well for those wanting independence.
Only a couple of weeks before the meeting in Cardiff, YesCymru commissioned a poll from Survation, a company we recognise whose results usually give the lower end of independence support amongst pollsters.
We also asked the question as to whether people would vote for an independent Wales tomorrow. We did this knowing that we wanted a very real view of how the vote goes on any given day. The result with don’t knows removed was a 68-32 success for the pro-Unionists.
From that polling we have identified a core group of voters (20% of those intending to vote) who don’t just sit on the fence, they are the fence, having scored themselves 5 on a 0-10 scale of independence. And we know who they are. Convince them and we win the day.
We also know what matters to them. Over 40% of voters gave economic fears as the biggest barrier to them voting Yes for independence.
In the summer, YesCymru launched our 2032 campaign.
We believe that a referendum is deliverable and more importantly winnable in that timeframe. We still do. Our strategy had changed. It has become far more streamlined.
Rather than throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing how much sticks, YesCymru’s output will now focus on those who make the difference and to those who support independence.
We know we have the ear of the Welsh government, having had our first face-to-face meeting with them in the summer and with the First Minister agreeing to address our supporters in Aberystwyth.
An independent Wales in 2032 is more than a realistic possibility. And this week it has started to really hit home. Our future is in our hands.
If you support independence, join YesCymru. Do whatever you can to get to Aberystwyth this Saturday.
A show of support worthy of the nation will further cement the message that Wales is on the move. Within Wales at least.
For everyone else, we’re happy to stay under the radar, chipping away at gaining the support that results in a fairer, wealthier, more welcoming independent nation ready to take our place in the world.
The March for Independence, Aberystwyth takes place on Saturday 26 September. Meeting at 11am at Castle Gardens, Aberystwyth, the March is then scheduled for 1pm. Find out more here.
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I support Welsh independence. For me it is a binary decision either stay in the UK and have the Tories in government (they usually win UK general elections) or Welsh independence.
That’s lovely. Now, how are we going to pay for it?
Just a guess, but probably follow the 34 smaller countries.
We cannot afford to be part of this abusive relationship any more.
Why are other countries capable of running their own economy but for some unknown reason we in Cymru can’t run ours? Perhaps there are those who think we are not good enough.
Do you have costings?
Does any country have accurate costings? The answer is NO. Does the UK, French, German governments have accurate costings? The answer is NO.
Why do you think we can’t ? From another John Y.
So Cymru- unlike other small countries (Ireland, Denmark, etc) -can’t support herself after 5 centuries of London rule. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the union!
I love the Welsh Independence marches they symbolise hope for a country we could become. A country that has more chance of being governed by it own values. We in Cymru typically have a majority of centre left voters in elections, but we are more often than not ruled by an increasingly right-wing conservative party. Either we are a country or not, either we govern ourselves according to our values or we become part of England.
Do you have any costings Rob? Anything will do. Well, anything that has been rigorously tested by experts etc, not dreamt up.
What will be the ongoing cost to our public services when the Tories and/or Reform win the next UK general election?
So 14 years of Austerity to rectify the errors of the Super Rich was only dreamt up was it!
Do you have costings?
About 500bn pounds give or take 50bn or so. The whole programme actually ran to 2022, so it goes up to about 900bn if you include the entire chunk. Pretty beefy costs for someone mishandling finances and… no one went to jail! Well, some poor dude in Iceland, but ours? Scot free. But if I mishandled my finances to that tune… I’m pretty sure I’d be in jail for fraud.
Have you asked the Irish if they would rather go back to direct rule from Wasteminster?
As far as I can tell the economic costs against are effectively dreamt up themselves. GDP is a useless measure in and of itself and the “fiscal gap” is true only in a narrow accounting sense. A company that is headquartered and posts profits in London does not actually register even though they have warehouses, factories, shops etc in Wales. It also takes into account expenditure allocated to Wales that Wales doesn’t enjoy any benefit from such as HS2. Defence spending is allocated proportionately in a per capita sense, but most bases, contracts and procurement are England. Also Wales benefits… Read more »
What you’ve said is 100% correct Smae so I don’t understand why someone has down arrowed you. Would that person like to own up and explain why they did ? A few asked for numbers regarding the Welsh fiscal position. They’ve been provided on so many occasions now i’ve lost track. And I find it very hard to believe that if someone has enough interest in the question of Welsh Indy that they have never come across any of those reports. Try reading a booklet called ‘The Welsh Budget’ by Professor Phil Williams. Or ‘Independence In Your Pocket’. Or/and ‘The… Read more »
And the UK debt that we would have to take our share of?
So in the one hour between my post being published and yours being published how much investigation did you make as to the numbers Mike ?
Any at all ?
If you really are interested in having a discussion on the subject please give us some numbers that you believe are correct.
All these comments and no academic-level costings. The UK debt is also massive. Need to be honest with people.
I’ve got to ask the rather glaringly obvious question.
Why would there be costings, detailed or otherwise in an “opinion piece” concerning a brighter future in general?
As a reader, it would be irrelevant to what’s written in the piece?
Quite right. No discussions about independence should mention money, budgets, debt, NHS, education, the economy, defence etc – the stuff that impacts us all. The focus should be on hymns, arias and free Welsh cakes. That’s the way to win the voters round. When someone tells us we are going to be wealthier then we should not question it. Just like so many didn’t question the promises of Brexit…
If they’re going to be based on money, then they should dig into what Wales actually produces rather than excluding profits that are exported for London’s benefit and exclude projects that might benefit Wales… if the vibes are strong enough (HS2), as well as take into account the voluntary sector then we might actually get somewhere. Best example is defence, per capita, Wales pays in proportionately, but most defence spending is actually in England, the contracts, procurement and the biggest beneficiaries? Microsoft, a US company and parts of England. At the moment the Government and Unionists are using GDP and… Read more »
Money is rather important.
The evolution of the anti independence argument goes
Ridicule – independence, you are joking
Insult- independence, you must be stupid
Straw clutching- independence, you,re too poor
Same progression could be applied to other ambitions such as couples thinking about having children
I think you’ve proved the point. ‘Vibes’ it is then.
Quite. The reason we never get any costings is because there aren’t any – or at least any that add up.
Reply to Undecided
Just because you are not aware of any costings for independence doesn,t mean they don,t exist.
Prof John Doyle produced one which is easily accessed if you can use google.
Others are available.
No need to thank me for enabling the development of your understanding of the argument for independence for Cymru and of course the resulting independence for England