A tale of two halves awaits Plaid Cymru in 2026

Jonathan Edwards

2025 has finished on such a high note for Plaid Cymru that the party leadership probably don’t want the year to end.

The last major poll before the festive period put the party on course to win the Senedd election in May and critically crushing the Labour party by a stratospheric 23%. (Re-read that figure again as it isn’t a typo!!). If the polls are replicated, Rhun ap Iorwerth will be First Minister of Wales in four months’ time.

Reform may win the election and return the largest number of seats, but it is difficult to see how they win the crucial Senedd vote on electing a First Minister considering that they are wholly reliant on the Tories to support them in a face-off.

Even if Labour abstain, which could be a legitimate decision for a party completely shell-shocked by a savage dethronement, there should be enough Greens and Lib Dem Senedd Members elected to combine with Plaid Cymru to defeat the Reform nominee.

Only a Lazarus-like recovery by Labour therefore can stop the seemingly inevitable. Anything can happen in politics so it’s not impossible, but it is highly unlikely.

Labour are being penalised by the curse inflicting incumbent governing parties in an age where a sizeable chunk of the population is angry about prolonged worsening living standards.

In government at both ends of the M4 there is no hiding place for the party before next May. Labour rode the wave of public discontent in advance of the last general election, but having failed to improve economic performance they have seen support evaporate.

Here lies a major warning for Plaid Cymru. The party has done nothing to change the political dynamics to create their current poll rating. They are in a current fortunate position to be seen as one of the two options the electorate are polarising behind to be next in line to try and turn matters around.

If the current economic malaise continues then Plaid’s poll ratings will quickly plummet.

Plaid’s position will be exposed as the Welsh Government has absolutely no control over macro policies impacting on living standards. The policy on extending childcare provision to nine-month-old babies is a huge commitment in the Welsh Government policy universe but will only impact on a relatively small cohort of the Welsh population. (As the father of a six- month-old baby I declare an interest!).

A Plaid Cymru run Welsh Government will be hoping that the economic policies of the Labour UK Government come good soon and that anti-incumbency feelings fade.

Regrettably it appears the Treasury are betting the house on the easing of monetary policy by the Bank of England. If so, it isn’t going to be enough.

Ministerial office

The party’s position will be further hindered by a lack of governmental experience. Elin Jones is the only Plaid Cymru candidate that has any experience of ministerial office. Anna Brychan and Dafydd Trystan are two serious operators to keep an eye out for outside the current crop of Senedd Members and could well find themselves thrust into ministerial office immediately as will Nerys Evans.

The new government will inevitably resemble rabbits stuck in proverbial headlights once they are faced with the reality of office, and I don’t say that out of disrespect.

They won’t be inheriting a bed of roses and having effectively nodded through the last Senedd Budget they are hardly going to be able to blame the previous administration. The big question therefore is what the strategy of the Plaid leadership in adversity will be.

Inevitably they will embrace the pre-2024 general election strategy of the Welsh Government of blaming the UK Government for all ills. While the target then was party political against the Tories, Plaid will be more interested in a Wales v Westminster narrative. Mr ap Iorwerth clearly doesn’t want to prioritise constitutional matters, but it may well become unavoidable.

Which then raises the question: what’s the plan especially in the context where, again, if current polls are correct there could be within a matter of years a Reform-led UK Government? The stakes then would be beyond anything imaginable with a hostile UK Government openly threatening the concept of devolved government.

Westminster dominance

The actions of both Tory and Labour UK governments in reasserting Westminster dominance post-Brexit has completely legitimised what Nigel Farage as Prime Minister would likely seek to do on a grander scale.

Expect Mr Farage to inflame English nationalist passions in the run-up to the next general election against a Plaid-run Wales and SNP-run Scotland. Where Mr Farage leads, Labour and the Tories will follow with an openly hostile approach to both the Welsh and Scottish governments.

Those at the top of Plaid Cymru therefore need to be thinking not only about how to deliver their current poll lead at election time, but also about the post-election landscape they will face.

In politics as in life you either shape events or they will shape you. Merely hoping that running public services more efficiently is unlikely to be enough to ensure that the party can sustain public support in the second half of 2026 and beyond.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24