All things to all men

Ben Wildsmith

Keir Starmer has had a better week than he, and we, have come to expect. His excited face as he unveiled freshly inked trade deals with India, and then the USA, was a study in ecstatic relief.

After months of condemnation from all shades of the political spectrum, the PM finally had something to bring home from school and stick on the fridge door. Bless him.

Sadly for Starmer, however, he immediately ran into the wall of irrational resistance that characterises the voters he is losing to Reform UK.

Signing independent trade deals is, ostensibly, the whole point of the Brexit project. Its ‘how dare you call me racist, I’m a classical liberal’ cheerleaders should be cartwheeling in the streets and getting Keir Starmer tattoos this weekend.

Unhappy

Predictably, though, they remain unhappy. Despite their ‘legitimate concerns about immigration’ having nothing, repeat nothing to do with race, many seem curiously fixated on the prospect of Indian workers being seconded to the UK in a reciprocal deal to encourage the establishment of new businesses.

The ‘strong ties with the Commonwealth’ about which we heard so much before the referendum seem not to be part of Reform’s rhetoric this week. Could there be something about India, in particular, that separates it from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada in their affections? How puzzling.

Starmer’s USP is that he’s an equal opportunities irritant. If he’s annoyed half of the country in the morning, he makes sure to wind up the other half before teatime.

Accordingly, with the outraged grunting of Farageiste hordes over India still in the air, the PM stuck it to yoghurt-knitting Europhiles by signing us up to the MAGAsphere.

The US deal seems far sketchier than the one with India. Arriving seemingly unheralded, and conveniently in time for VE Day, the agreement mitigates some of the barriers to trade that Trump has recently erected.

Disadvantaged

It leaves the UK disadvantaged in comparison to where we were six months ago, but less disadvantaged than we were last week. When Trump talks about the art of the deal, that’s what he means.

The deal was reportedly sprung on the PM whilst he was watching the football and then announced the next day.

Even timeshare salesmen are required to offer a cooling off period…

These deals have been concluded as negotiations with the EU continue. This is problematic in two ways. The UK’s trading arrangements with Europe are by far our most important. There is no prospect of either India or the USA supplanting the EU as our largest market.

By signing other deals before concluding new arrangements with the EU, the UK has narrowed the terms of conversation with Europe. Rejoining the Customs Union is now off the table even as a long-term option.

Whether access to the UK market for American beef will impact our ability to export to Europe seems unclear at present.

A deal with Europe is set to be announced in 10 days’ time, how much of it has been renegotiated in the light of seemingly rushed arrangements with the White House.

Signing the first post-Independence Day deal with Trump’s administration is being hailed as an achievement by the Labour government. Certainly, it seems to ease immediate pressure on car manufacturers and that is a significant benefit.

Fortunes

In the context of wider relations in the world, however, this ties the UK’s fortunes to those of the current US administration.

Whilst the EU, Australia, and Canada are looking to face down Trump’s assault on free trade, the UK seems to have acquiesced to it. This raises the question of where that decision will leave the UK if Trump’s trade policies fail.

Whilst the USA is large and powerful enough to escape lasting consequences, the UK’s positioning will not be forgotten by allies who have proven themselves to be more reliable and stable in recent times.

Whilst the PM has slammed the door shut on Customs Union membership, rumours abound that we may end up in Swiss-style arrangement whereby we pay for Single Market access. Historians will recall that this is the precise opposite of the position Starmer advocated when he was Shadow Brexit Secretary, but the PM is nothing if not flexible, as everyone from WASPI women to the residents of Gaza can attest.

Majority support

Polls suggest that, if he were minded, Starmer has majority support to seek a far closer relationship with the EU than is currently on the table. This situation is further confused by the PM’s leading role in seeking to establish a European ‘coalition of the willing’ to police Ukraine.

The creation of a European army was at the absolute outer edge of Eurosceptic scaremongering a few years ago. Now, it is being driven by a politician who has given up on the rest of the European project in favour of relations with a US administration that has horrified most of the world.

With a recent poll showing Reform UK 10 points clear of Labour, the PM’s task now is to root out voters who are happy to wear a European military uniform, but opposed to British membership of the Customs Union.

If any such voters are reading this, please make yourselves known.