Are Labour Senedd candidates cannon fodder in the great Westminster power game?

Jonathan Edwards

When Anas Sarwar got on his feet in a hastily arranged press conference on Monday this week to declare: “The distraction has to end, and the leadership has to change”, I could not have been the only one thinking that it was the first act in a coordinated sequence of announcements from other senior Labour figures which would herald the end of the premiership of Keir Starmer.

Sarwar’s position is understandable. Labour is sliding in the Scottish polls at only 15% and languishing in third. He knows (as does Eluned Morgan) that the concrete block around his feet is public opinion when it comes to the record of the Labour UK government of which the Mandelson scandal is only the latest episode.

He also knows that if the polls are replicated (as does Eluned Morgan) that he will be the proverbial sacrificial lamb following the election.

Sarwar must have been under the impression that if he stuck his neck over the parapet that others would follow. I know desperate politicians can perform reckless acts, but it is high risk to say the least to wield the knife unless you know the blow will fatally land.

As it happened, in an impressive operation considering the 10 Downing Street Chief of Staff and Head of Communications had both been removed from post over the weekend, the wagons quickly circled around the Prime Minister.

Would-be pretenders to the crown lined up to pay homage one by one to avoid being publicly smoked out and Mr Sarwar was left completely isolated.

There is a theory advanced by some commentators that Mr Sarwar played a strategic move in the hope of distancing himself from the wider UK party and advancing his Braveheart credentials.

I’m not so convinced a resignation call of this nature could work to achieve that aim. The SNP will surely highlight the irrelevance of Mr Sarwar for as long as Mr Starmer remains in office.

At the time of writing the Prime Minister seems safe for now. Unless the imminent disclosure of documents relating to the Mandelson affair indicates that he was fully aware that Mr Mandelson had been offloading government secrets to Jeffrey Epstein at the height of the great financial crash before he appointed him to serve as US Ambassador.

From what we know so far, poor judgment in making the appointment is not a resigning matter.

As events have unfolded over recent weeks, however, I did expect the Labour Party to move against the PM for electoral reasons.

The problem for the Prime Minister is Labour’s dismal position in the polls and the role his deep unpopularity plays. Unless those improve there is no way he will lead Labour into the next general election, which incidentally may come sooner than expected if he is removed from post.

Key moment

All eyes will now move to May as the next key moment, not least because of events here in Wales. I suspect that those manoeuvring to remove the Prime Minister would prefer to take the reins after those elections. Any new leader will find themselves in difficulty within months of assuming office if they lead Labour into those elections.

Better to keep their powder dry as the Parliamentary Labour Party panics.

I also suspect that those challengers are already endeavouring to discredit their potential rivals.

The Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has been badly damaged this week as the attempted coup is being laid firmly at his feet due to his close association with Mr Sarwar in addition to his other indiscreet manoeuvrings.

If those who seek to dispose of Mr Starmer are waiting until the May elections are out of the way before making their move, then Labour Senedd candidates find themselves playing the role of cannon fodder in the great Westminster game.

Glimmer of hope

However, there is a potential glimmer of hope. The Prime Minister must know that his only chance of survival in the long term is a better-than-expected set of results.

The First Minister has given the Prime Minister her shopping list of demands in her recent speech to the Institute of Government. If the Prime Minister was wise, he would realise that he must give Eluned Morgan and Labour Senedd candidates a fighting chance.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24