Are the Greens the Party to Watch in 2026?

Jonathan Edwards

Just as you thought matters couldn’t possibly get any better for Plaid Cymru, up pops the first poll of the year which puts the party within touching distance of getting an overall majority, with an increase in support of seven percentage points..

Not only that, but the support for their nearest rivals, Reform UK Ltd, has fallen by six percentage points.

Equally pleasing for Plaid will be to see the traditional big two, Labour and the Tories, vying for fourth and fifth place on only a combined share of a paltry 20%.

In politics momentum is everything. When it is with you or against you, things move fast.

Political gravity is a very difficult thing to resist, and it looks for the moment as if Plaid is fuelled by helium, and their rivals have been fitted with respective pairs of concrete boots.

To put icing on the cake for Plaid at the moment the Greens find themselves in third place and projected to win 11 seats in the new Senedd. This would enable Rhun ap Iorwerth to become First Minister without needing the support of Labour to sustain him in office – an eventuality which poses a world of problems for Plaid Cymru.

Gwern Gwynfil deserves a hat tip as he predicted the Green surge in Nation before Christmas. Their rise under Zack Polanski is quite staggering. The former Aberystwyth University student is a breath of fresh air compared to other UK party leaders in his approach to Wales, far less London-centric and positioning himself cleverly on the constitutional question.

If the recent social media post by the Greens of a packed meeting in Cardiff is anything to go by, then they are certainly developing an activist base capable of running a half decent ground war come the election.

On that note, it would be interesting to know if the Plaid Cymru membership and activist base has swollen in unison with its impressive poll positions over recent months. If it is to sustain its new lofty position it will need to attract thousands of new active members to work for the party to establish it as Wales’ dominant political force.

Overtaking Labour is a major achievement for the party and opens a world of possibilities as we approach the Senedd election and critically beyond.

Danger

Labour should be in a state of panic, but also Plaid strategists should be sensing potential danger.

Having overtaken Labour, the Greens are now a credible option for progressive voters who previously supported Labour and are currently coalescing around Plaid Cymru. The herd in politics when in stampede mode can change direction at speed, and the Greens could take a chunk of support away from Plaid before May. Only a 7% turnover, would leave Plaid on 30% and the Greens on 20%.

The aftermath of the election could be bountiful for the Greens if they finish third with a decent contingent of Senedd Members and build a strategy based upon hoovering up the support of those disillusioned with the new administration.

Plaid Cymru will be desperate to tie the Greens in as much as possible, hoping to deflect all unpopular decisions. The Greens therefore will need to be very mindful of what exactly they sign up to in those giddy days in early May. They should be thinking of their demands well in advance of polling day so as not to enter those negotiations fresh faced. The Greens will need to identify red line issues which will cost them nothing politically but will split the Plaid voter coalition. Energy policy is one obvious area where they could make life very difficult for the new Welsh Government.

Are the Greens the real party to watch in 2026 therefore? It is not inconceivable they could be challenging for the top of the polls before the end of the year and performing the role of the tail that wags the Welsh Government’s dog.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24