Are we heading to a snap general election?

Jonathan Edwards

Politics these days is completely relentless, and it is not surprising that there was considerable commentary over the Bank Holiday weekend speculating that the current Westminster parliamentary term is highly unlikely to run its full course.

Considering that we are only two years into a Labour UK government with a majority in the 170s, it’s frankly remarkable that we are even speculating. However, as this column and others predicted over a year ago, the likely scale of Labour losses in May’s elections were always going to be a reckoning for the leadership of Keir Starmer. And for once, far from being an afterthought, political developments in Wales are the driving force of the angst epidemic consuming Labour MPs.

The photograph of the newly depleted Labour group on the steps of the Senedd last week perfectly encapsulated the demise of the most powerful democratic political force our country has ever known. If you are a Labour MP, it is not difficult to see the cogs turning to a conclusion that the same fate awaits them whenever the general election comes.

And therefore we have arrived at the bizarre situation in which a by-election in the parliamentary constituency of Makerfield will, no matter the result, hasten a changing of the guard at 10 Downing Street.

If the Labour candidate, Andy Burnham, is elected he will launch a leadership challenge and almost certainly win. If he loses to Reform, Keir Starmer will undoubtedly be blamed by his colleagues who will conclude that if the King of the North can’t defeat Reform in his own backyard, then their own chances of re-election under Mr Starmer are slim at best.

A new Prime Minister will inevitably lead to growing momentum for an earlier than planned general election. I witnessed at first hand how the Opposition in the Commons delegitimised the Tories whenever they changed leader. Kemi Badenoch will simply dust off the playbook used by Keir Starmer himself relentlessly against Rishi Sunak. The power of the message will be magnified if the new PM is Andy Burnham, considering he would be a new parliamentary arrival.

The fact that UK elections are presidential these days does mean that any new PM taking over midterm faces legitimacy questions. If Keir Starmer is replaced, then whoever takes over will face a never-ending barrage. In the social media age, it will not take long for the narrative to stick, especially if the new Prime Minister runs into early problems.

Furthermore, any new replacement will surely be standing on a change narrative. Wes Streeting has made his pitch on the European question. Andy Burnham has attacked four decades of failed neo-liberalism. If Labour are to scrap the 2024 manifesto, then it is going to need to secure a new mandate.

A new Prime Minister will know that they are likely to be at their strongest in the first year or so in office. With a fair wind, it is plausible to see Labour recovering in the polls# to become competitive and then throwing the dice.

Trumpflation and the unwillingness of any contender to challenge Treasury fiscal rules however will probably curtail the honeymoon period to a long weekend at best which means a snap election might well come sooner as opposed to later.

What we can safely rule out I suspect is that a new PM will run down the clock until June 2029. Once election fever hits, it tends to gather its own momentum. It will be one of the first questions that a new PM faces and unless they unequivocally rule out going early – and therefore deprive themselves of a strategic advantage – then speculation will become infectious.

And here lies perhaps a glimmer of hope for Prime Minister Starmer if he decides to fight on. If Labour MPs conclude that his fall equates to a far earlier than planned date with electoral destiny, then many might well be persuaded to stay loyal.

Far better to keep their heads down in the trenches for as long as possible as opposed to running at fortified machine gun positions at the whim of a cavalier new leader.

One of the mantras I used to motivate myself when I was a party organiser responsible for yearly elections, or as a candidate who faced four general elections in nine years, was that victory was only a periodic escape from defeat and humiliation.

Labour in Wales enjoyed a century-long period of success, but that has not shielded them from what happened earlier this month.

Plaid Cymru, who have just enjoyed an election result beyond the comprehension of even some of their most optimistic supporters, now need to back up the result at the next Westminster election.

In May it won 11 constituencies which would equate to 22 Westminster MPs under First Past the Post.

Considering the stakes at play with a potential Reform UK government, it is going to need to achieve a similar result. Failure to break hrough would lead to all sorts of internal introspection, suck momentum out of the Welsh Government and leave Wales politically exposed.

Mr Farage as Prime Minister, assuming Reform win, will adopt one of two positions on the Union. As an English nationalist he may take a radically different approach to Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems and say to the Celtic countries ‘ok off you go’. Or he might embrace a more traditionalist model of recentralising power in Westminster as part of a greater England philosophy.

Matters would be outside our hands. However, the voting intention of the people of Wales and Scotland may impact on his thinking. If Plaid Cymru return a majority of Welsh MPs then he may go for the former as opposed to the latter.

Plaid’s talent pool of potential candidates will have been depleted considering many potential candidates now find themselves settling into life in Cardiff Bay. The Plaid leadership however may want to consider instructing those not likely to hold government office to use their new platform as backbench Senedd Members, and considerable staffing resources, to pave the way for a shot at Westminster.

They will face highly motivated Labour sitting tenants fighting for the very existence of their party and a Reform insurgency.

Plaid Cymru are going to need the best candidates at their disposal at the election. Backbench Senedd Members, if they build up their local profiles quickly, will have far more of a chance of winning against their opponents than new candidates starting from scratch.

Any elected would be simply replaced in the Senedd by the next in line on their respective lists. It is therefore cost neutral to the Welsh Government in terms of Senedd numbers.

From a Welsh nationalist perspective, the coming general election, whenever it comes, is mission critical.

If Plaid is serious, it must win the election in Wales. It cannot afford to regress. Let’s see how many new Plaid Senedd Members understand the significances of this moment in the history of our nation and put their country first.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24