Being Welsh Labour’s ‘conscience at Westminster’ is a fruitful strategy for Plaid Cymru

Martin Shipton

Every party that is serious about wanting to win an election needs a clear and effective strategy.

Anyone who has read the book Get In: The Inside Story of Labour Under Starmer by Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogrund will know that Morgan McSweeney had devised such a plan with last year’s general election in mind before he he had even homed in on Starmer as the channel through which victory would be delivered.

The strategy may have been dishonest – including a plan to appease party members by creating the impression that Starmer was more left wing than he was and subsequently by cynically engaging in policy U-turns – but it was all a means to an end. The problem was that the strategy was entirely geared to winning the election. That was the endgame and there was no second phase.

One of the important questions that arise as next year’s Senedd election draws closer is whether Plaid Cymru can avoid making the same strategic error as Labour.

Slow burn

In a few weeks time, on August 5, Plaid will celebrate its centenary at a time when polls suggest it is in with a realistic chance of becoming the largest party in the Senedd. It’s been a slow burn. It wasn’t until the party was more than 40 years old that it saw its first MP elected. And it wasn’t until nearly 75 years after its foundation that Plaid had at least a theoretical chance of winning more seats than any other party in a democratically elected national assembly.

There are parties that can reasonably be designated “Johnny Come Latelys”, but Plaid would never fit into such a category.

The more astute members of the party’s leadership realise they need to go a step beyond Labour’s 2024 approach. Becoming the biggest party in the Senedd won’t be enough to achieve Plaid’s ambition of winning independence for Wales.

If Plaid were to adopt McSweeney’s 2024 election masterplan and become the biggest party in May 2035, it would all be in vain if momentum wasn’t maintained and a Plaid-led administration failed to deliver tangible improvements that made a difference in people’s lives.

For the time being, however, Plaid’s part one strategy appears to be holding up.

Progressive instincts

A party strategist told me that Plaid was consciously seeking to project itself as Welsh Labour’s “conscience” at Westminster.

When its four MPs take a stand against welfare cuts, against the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza or against the latest racist dog-whistle from Reform UK, they are tuning into the progressive instincts of most Labour voters.

Principles and sheer morality aside, there are hard-headed electoral reasons for doing so. Many Welsh Labour voters are unhappy at the direction their party has taken under Starmer. They were uneasy before the general election, but have become more so as Labour in power at Westminster has pursued policies seen as regressive.

Many Labour voters find it difficult to identify with a party that they see continuing austerity policies, backing Israel’s murderous cruelty and – another important element – failing to stand up for Wales’ interests. Rows and revelations about HS2 injustice and Labour MPs representing Welsh constituencies who oppose Welsh Labour’s policy in favour of devolving Crown Estate revenues feed into the narrative that those who hold power within the party will, when the crunch comes, do Starmer’s bidding even when it goes against Welsh interests.

There is polling evidence that supports the value in Plaid’s targeting of Labour voters. Some 30% of those who voted for Welsh Labour in the July 2024 general election now say they would consider voting for Plaid Cymru at the May 2025 Senedd election.

For Plaid, there are ripe electoral pickings. By contrast, only 5% of 2024 Welsh Labour voters are contemplating voting for Reform next year.

‘The red Welsh way’

This leads to a further point of difference that could also play to Plaid’s advantage. In recent weeks we have seen the emergence of a concept christened by Eluned Morgan as “the red Welsh way”. For those with long memories, the phrase is meant to evoke the “clear red water” philosophy articulated in 2002 by Rhodri Morgan, with the help of Mark Drakeford, to distinguish his devolved administration from the New Labour government led by Tony Blair at Westminster.

But the two ideas were mooted in very different political circumstances. In 2002, Labour was riding high, having won two general election landslides and with opposition parties posing no threat. “Clear red water” involved a set of principles based on universal benefits and a commitment to the public sector provision of public services at a time when Blair was making greater use of the private sector in such a context.

The “red Welsh way”, on the other hand, is seen by many, even within Welsh Labour, as a hastily formulated slogan designed in panic to give the impression that the government led by Eluned Morgan really will take a stand on behalf of Wales against unpalatable policies emanating from UK Labour at Westminster.

The problem is that Baroness Morgan has not so far come close to changing Keir Starmer’s mind on “red Welsh way” issues like HS2, the Crown Estate and the reversal of spending cuts affecting public services and amenities. And despite token outbursts of rhetoric, the UK continues to supply arms and logistical support to Israel.

Authentic

Plaid Cymru MPs, on the other hand, are seen by many as offering sincere and authentic criticisms of Labour’s betrayals. This is clearly irritating Starmer, whose rudeness to Liz Saville-Roberts in the Commons chamber did him no credit and led to a rare apology.

While persuading as many Labour voters as possible to switch to Plaid is the central aim of the party, it also has an interest in exposing the contradictions inherent to Reform – a personality cult that shamelessly promises improvements to public services despite planning to implement spending cuts of a scale that is unimaginable.

Plaid needs to go into the Senedd election campaign with a credible set of policies that promise tangible improvements and then deliver them.

People are sick of meaningless waffle; they want things to actually get better.

In the early years of what was the National Assembly and is now the Senedd, there was a target to increase the GVA per head in Wales (a variation of GDP per head) to 90% of the figure for the UK as a whole. The target was turned into an aspiration and then quietly abandoned.

In 2023, Wales’ GVA per head was just 73.6% that of the overall UK – a driver, for example, of the shameful child poverty figures we are often reminded about.

Plaid Cymru should promise to deliver improvements in ways that can be measured. By demonstrating that it can run a capable and effective government, Plaid would simultaneously improve the chances of achieving its underpinning goal: Welsh independence.