Burn the house down or not? Labour’s strategic dilemma

Jonathan Edwards

Even in amateur sport these days there is a lot of emphasis on positioning the culture and identity of a team as the foundation of performance. This even comes before tactics and roles are determined.

When I restarted playing cricket, I recall a discussion with my new captain after a heavy defeat when the atmosphere during the game hadn’t been pleasant.

He told me we had to decide what sort of team we wanted to be. His point being: did we want to be a team that won at all costs, no matter how our opponents viewed us. Or were we going to be a team that played the game in a less abrasive manner, worrying less about results and concentrating on enjoyment?

The reason I reminisce is that I think Labour of all the political parties following the recent Senedd election face a similar cultural and identity strategic decision to make in the coming months.

It is a decision that could have profound implications for Labour going forward, and perhaps more importantly shape the politics of the seventh Senedd and determine whether the Welsh Government is able to function or not.

After the scale of the defeat Labour has just suffered in Wales, it’s going to take the party a while to get over the grief of the loss of its role as our country’s primary political power, debate the future and then refocus.

Labour must quickly realise that they have no inalienable right to return to the top of the Welsh political tree. There is no guarantee that normal political order in Wales will return to normal and that May was a complete aberration.

Indeed, if it doesn’t react quickly, it could find its local government base wiped out quickly, followed by its MPs.

Labour’s traditional supremacy over Wales was largely down to it being a very broad coalition, not only on the left-right axis but also on the constitutional question.

What held it all together was the glue of power. Without power acting as a gloss adhesive, the inevitable self-examination that now faces the party could lead to implosion unless managed carefully.

I have no idea whether the appointment of Ken Skates as interim leader is part of a handover strategy which will become permanent or whether there will be a formal leadership election.

I think that the party requires a leadership election no matter how ugly matters get because it needs a wide-ranging debate such as the thoughtful article by former Minister Mick Antoniw in the Institute of Welsh Affairs’ Welsh Agenda journal last week.

Mr Antoniw argued for an autonomous Labour Party in Wales, something that Mr Skates rebuffed to Nation Cymru in his interview with Martin Shipton after his appointment as Senedd leader.

This is a foundational question for Labour going forward: will Labour become a genuine Welsh party or continue as a GB-wide organisation that operates in our country?

Matters are going to be complicated, of course, because it seems inevitable that the wider UK party is also heading for a leadership election which will probably lead to Prime Minister Keir Starmer being removed from office.

Tony Blair’s article last week ruffled a few feathers. I wouldn’t agree with much of what he had to say apart from his stern warning that would-be challengers (and indeed the current incumbents) need to work out the policy priorities first and worry about the politics later.

Political considerations

The same applies to Labour here in Wales. There is a danger that Labour going forward in Wales will base its approach in the Senedd on one of two strategies driven by political considerations.

Does it help the new Welsh Government to function by assisting the Plaid minority administration to get its business through in return for a few concessions? Or does it take a less helpful approach as seemingly advocated by one of the handful of remaining Labour Senedd Members, Mike Hedges, on election night, when he reportedly told Will Hayward that he could see the opposition parties voting down a minority Plaid Cymru Welsh Government Budget, potentially leading to a snap Senedd poll?

To be fair to Mr Hedges, he was stating the obvious. Indeed, a hostile Labour approach to the Welsh Government was something that I saw as likely in my articles leading up to the election on the basis that the overriding priority of the party in Wales in the next few years would be the next general election and the re-election of its MPs.

It could easily achieve some political victories in the Senedd if it did so, but in the end these would be facile unless underpinned by a deeper political philosophy and policy programme that provides an alternative.

Rebuild

Far be it from me to offer advice to the Labour Party, but the scale of defeat it has just suffered will require a complete stripping down of the party to its bare bones, a full rewiring and then a rebuild. Central to that would be a new policy mission determined by the party’s identity and culture which then informs political strategy.

This will be difficult as it is not only a Welsh party but also a Great Britain-wide organisation. However, gone are the days when Labour in Wales could operate chameleon-like.

In the ashes of defeat, it is going to have to decide who it is and what its purpose is if it is to have a chance of regaining its once hegemonic status.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24